Non-Founders Series Cybertruck timeline

[Dazajj]

I have what I feel is a very conservative view of Tesla’s forward-looking production ramp.

And even from that conservative view, I see no reason to have confidence that Tesla would produce fewer than 40K units by YE 2024.

• The production output of Cybertrucks we are presently seeing are in effect the absolute earliest stages of a complex and sensitive ramp.
• The reality, is that Tesla has been assembling trucks for sale for essentially three weeks, and not yet with any clear intent for full-throated ramp (despite marketing optics).
  
  
• One might fairly even say that Tesla is still currently in a pre-ramp phase, and has not yet begun actual - technical - production.

To the extent any of the above seems surprising or controversial, it is in no small part fueled (ironically) by the types of xwitter influenzas who have for months been way out over their skis (and Tesla’s skis) regarding where Tesla’s assembly and production-readiness is.

In other words, to listen to those fanbois, onlookers might reasonably conclude something like “Tesla’s been in production for months, and *this* is all we’re seeing!?”

The reality is, Tesla has been weeks or months behind those claims by outsiders.

The good news being, the result is that nothing we’ve seen the past few weeks (or the next several weeks) should be materially indicative of the ramp trajectory.

Again, not at all to suggest that a conservative view would suggest eg ‘we might still see 100K trucks in 2024.’

Instead only to say that even a conservative view would be that we don’t yet have sufficient info to reasonably doubt Tesla won’t achieve 40K or more units in 2024. Not that it might not turn out that way, but that we just don’t know much either way at present.

Agreed!

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[dandor]

I have what I feel is a very conservative view of Tesla’s forward-looking production ramp.

And even from that conservative view, I see no reason to have confidence that Tesla would produce fewer than 40K units by YE 2024.

If this was a Model Y type car, I would have no hesitation agreeing with you. The fact is that this is a completely different beast, pun intended, than any car they have produced. I will outline a few things that could limit production.

1. 4680 Batteries. Having a battery pack with 130 kWh with a still ramping new battery form could limit production.
2. New materials from new suppliers. They are depending on Outokumpu Oyj to provide the stainless steel for the truck. There are issues with Nickel and Stainless Steel right now. There are also many new parts and parts unique to the Cybertruck including steer-by-wire. Any supplier unique to the Cybertruck could cause issues.
3. Unexpected issues. If Tesla finds out that a certain issue pops up, they could cease production until they figure it our. We are beta-testers for a new vehicle. They will also need to train people on the new 800-Volt system and unique CyberTruck repairs.

My estimate is somewhere between 25,000 to 50,000, but I am thinking closer to the lower end. I could be wrong and would love to be.

 

[cvalue13]

If this was a Model Y type car, I would have no hesitation agreeing with you.

Then you went on to describe how you agree with me

"And even from that conservative view, I see no reason to have confidence that Tesla would produce fewer than 40K units by YE 2024."

That means, I can't agree with someone who says "based on what we know now there is no way they will make more than 40K"

I'm saying maybe they will or wont (including for reasons you mention), there's just not enough info yet to bet solely on the under

Instead, e.g.:

My estimate is somewhere between 25,000 to 50,000, but I am thinking closer to the lower end. I could be wrong and would love to be.

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