Cybertruck Order Charts: Geography, Model Type, Options, RNs Ordered (Final Update 2/20/2024)

[cvalue13]

when talking about how many FS may be sold, i think it's important to make a distinction between AWD and Beast

If they sell more than 1,000, those "more" seem likely to be disproportionately FS AWD, whereas the Beast has a different profile in terms of Tesla's willingness (whatever it may be) to extend the time between order and delivery (and time until they sell the first non-FS Beast).

seems possible we may end up in a scenario where there are far fewer FS Beast than FS AWD, and that the 'cost' of that FS Beast exclusivity will be wait time

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[evnow]

I really think the CT doesn't have autopilot because they're still tweaking the software that controls the rear steering. If they have 7 more degrees of movement for the rear wheels, that changes the driving profile entirely. They probably need to finish that before they apply AP/FSD functionality.

I don’t think they would worry about that for AP,FSD.

All indications are that the control software and API for CT are different enough that they probably have new APIs, with which AP/FSD has to interface. This would be brand new (at least quite a bit changed) and needs time to develop and test.

 

[cvalue13]

I don’t think they would worry about that for AP,FSD.

All indications are that the control software and API for CT are different enough that they probably have new APIs, with which AP/FSD has to interface. This would be brand new (at least quite a bit changed) and needs time to develop and test.

among and in addition to the 'normal' items you list, the AP/FSD roll out for CT is also absolutely delayed by it not yet playing nicely with the adaptive SBW and 4WS of the CT

 

[evnow]

among and in addition to the 'normal' items you list, the AP/FSD roll out for CT is also absolutely delayed by it not yet playing nicely with the adaptive SBW and 4WS of the CT

I’d expect them to be developing control interface for AP/FSD and the tweaking CT control software in parallel. IMO the interface will take more time to develop/test than for the control software for CT to start stabilizing.

 

[cvalue13]

I’d expect them to be developing control interface for AP/FSD and the tweaking CT control software in parallel. IMO the interface will take more time to develop/test than for the control software for CT to start stabilizing.

all well and good

just consider what Tesla could have been doing for the past 2+ years vs what they couldn't begin doing in earnest until the vehicle parameters were finalized and built

which werent finalize and built until the ~week before the delivery event

it's multi-factorial, but certainly involves the complications presented by adapting AP/FSD to SBW/4WS

 

[evnow]

it's multi-factorial, but certainly involves the complications presented by adapting AP/FSD to SBW/4WS

That should be hidden behind an API - without FSD/AP or for that matter interface between AP/FSD and the CT API needing to worry about the inner mechanics of CT control.

All I'm saying is if I was Ashok - I'd be more worried about how to interface and test rather than wait for CT to complete all the tweaking before starting on the AP interface. Ofcourse, the CT interface API needs to be finalized. That would be the starting point for serious development. Any large complex software development involves many moving parts. You still need to parallelize them ... can't serialize.

 

[MHBaker]

Hello & Happy Holidays. I do I research my reservation number, had problem with computer and lost that info. Wouldn't mind knowing what it is before Tesla calls me Thank you, Mark Baker

 

[Gigahorse]

IMO, Tesla will sell FS until they are ready to ramp up. How the production ramp up progresses will dictate when they start the general production since it would be difficult to sell enough FS to fill the production of say over 5K per month. Definitely not 10k per month.

Unfortunately the feeling I’m getting is that the ramp up is slower than many anticipated.

So, it might be Q3 before we see general orders open up …

Yea with the current ramp and FS rate it may be 2025 before day 1 reservation holders get a chance to order a non Foundation series Cybertruck. Hope that is not the case but certainly looks possible

 

[scottf200]

Hello & Happy Holidays. I do I research my reservation number, had problem with computer and lost that info. Wouldn't mind knowing what it is before Tesla calls me Thank you, Mark Baker

Log into your Tesla account as it is there: https://www.tesla.com/teslaaccount

 

[Woodrick]

I really think the CT doesn't have autopilot because they're still tweaking the software that controls the rear steering. If they have 7 more degrees of movement for the rear wheels, that changes the driving profile entirely. They probably need to finish that before they apply AP/FSD functionality.

Hasn't FSD always driven by wire? Can't RW steering be disabled for FSD?

 

[Woodrick]

IMO, Tesla will sell FS until they are ready to ramp up. How the production ramp up progresses will dictate when they start the general production since it would be difficult to sell enough FS to fill the production of say over 5K per month. Definitely not 10k per month.

Unfortunately the feeling I’m getting is that the ramp up is slower than many anticipated.

So, it might be Q3 before we see general orders open up …

It appears that the number of daily VIN requests jumped up to about 50 yesterday.

 

[cvalue13]

You still need to parallelize them ... can't serialize.

of course

we’re here just talking about which of those is the long pole

 

[Alan]

Yea, I agree, I think 50% would be crazy high. Think maybe 10% which would unfortunately support the 10,000+ FS already sold and signal that they intend to go through a big chunk of the 2.1 million reservation holders to see how many they can sell.

That makes no sense at all. At the rate they seem to be producing them it seems far more reasonable to be closer to 1000 if they’re showing delivery by April still.

 

[Gigahorse]

That makes no sense at all. At the rate they seem to be producing them it seems far more reasonable to be closer to 1000 if they’re showing delivery by April still.

I don't know, do you think that half of the people that have ordered a FS are members of this forum?
That is the big signal to me that there are a lot more than 1,000 that will be sold

 

[agordon117]

That makes no sense at all. At the rate they seem to be producing them it seems far more reasonable to be closer to 1000 if they’re showing delivery by April still.

The problem is, there are ~920 orders registered in the tracker on this forum alone. So if you believe the edition size is 1000, you must also believe that 92% of people who ordered foundation series found their way here to this forum and put their information into the tracker. That seems impossible.

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