Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations)

[CYBEAST]

The way I read his comments are in general 1 out of 3 orders anywhere are for Beast.
That is different than you saying that 1 out of 3 orders are "on this forum". HTH

I think it’s both. We can count on our spreadsheet of orders it’s about 30% beasts. I am just guessing 1/3 rd of actual CT orderers are in this forum and added their order to the spreadsheet. I’m up to hear anyone’s opinion on it.

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[GuyV]

You wouldn't believe how often my DM's are from employee's who want to know ANYTHING.

They're very very in the dark. On the other side, they can absolutely know more if they know how to navigate their own system.

Some of their "oldtimers" also have contacts, though they are usually service not sales guys. Haha, I don't think Telsa likes having their sales people know too much.

 

[SixZo]

You wouldn't believe how often my DM's are from employee's who want to know ANYTHING.

They're very very in the dark. On the other side, they can absolutely know more if they know how to navigate their own system.

All I'll say on this is that it is indeed very true.

 

[newwave1331]

New VINs for 1/23/2024
66 AWD (#1299-1364)
*New Record Day
29% more than the previous record!

 

[cvalue13]

Do you really think 1/3 of orders are on this forum? I find it hard to imagine it would be that high. I hope you are right in that it would mean fewer people ahead in the line, but I would be surprised if it was even 10%.

two things:

first, in the context above, I was meaning this forum’s order list as a sample pool, 1/3 are beast, so (perhaps) 1/3 of total orders are for a beast

second, I separately do actually think this forum’s order list has a surprisingly high capture rate. There were the existing ~20K members who knew of this site and once received invites/orders/heard they were going out might circle back. Then there were fairly prominent xwitter Cybertruck influenzas and other forums pointing to our order list - lots of folks getting invites etc and taking to the web for info (lord knows Resla wasn’t giving it) would have found this forum/the order list.

what percentage I wouldn’t say. But I’d feel good about a bet of at least 1/3. I’d wouldn’t be too surprised to find out it’s much higher.

but that’s just my personal bet

 

[dandor]

The capture rate for this forum in my opinion statistically looks pretty low. I got my VIN today and it was a 1/17 captured VIN. We have 13 people that filled out the form for people that received their vehicle. At this point there have been way more than 13 Cybertrucks delivered to regular people. I would say 10 to 20% maximum is the capture rate for orders. 10,000 Foundation Series vehicles seems very probable at this point.

 

[CYBEAST]

The capture rate for this forum in my opinion statistically looks pretty low. I got my VIN today and it was a 1/17 captured VIN. We have 13 people that filled out the form for people that received their vehicle. At this point there have been way more than 13 Cybertrucks delivered to regular people. I would say 10 to 20% maximum is the capture rate for orders. 10,000 Foundation Series vehicles seems very probable at this point.

I see what you are saying. I think once people get the vehicle they loose interest in looking for information on this forum.

 

[dandor]

I see what you are saying. I think once people get the vehicle they loose interest in looking for information on this forum.

Don't underestimate people's motive of showing off! I would agree that eventually it will tail off after 1000's are delivered. However, the low post rate of VIN's and deliveries on the forum shows me that the capture rate is right around 10%.

 

[CYBEAST]

At what vin # did we see deliveries to normal people? 500s? Seems like they are under 1000 now on actual delivered models right?

 

[dandor]

At what vin # did we see deliveries to normal people? 500s? Seems like they are under 1000 now on actual delivered models right?

The first VIN confirmed for a "normal" person was 1046. That was a VIN captured date of 1/10. That was when VIN numbers were at 573. So right around 500 for normal people sounds right. I assume that all VIN's were distributed for the week of 1/15, since I had one of the last one's for that week and it was assigned to me. So that brings us to about 742 that should be accounted for so far. The majority of those are Employees and influencers, but we should still see more VIN's being posted here if there are only 3000 FS Cybertrucks made. 10,000 is the number I am sticking by right now, it just makes sense.

 

[CYBEAST]

Sounds right. Good info. So 242 normal people have already taken deliver? Or some of those haven’t taken delivery yet but have a vin assigned? So we have 13 on the spreadsheet. Maybe 50 real people have taken delivery? That’s 26% are on the spreadsheet.

 

[Woodrick]

I worked for an Auto Manufacturer on an assembly line for 9 years in my prior career. When we launched a new model, day 1 we built all the different trims. Of course I’ve never worked for Tesla. But they clearly have built 50 or so beasts already. It has to be a parts supply issue. I don’t think they are still practicing. They did that the past few years.

Sure, but Tesla didn't do that with the Model 3.

The Model 3 performance wasn't released until about 9 months after production started. The AWD wasn't for months after that.
And since the Model Y was essentially the same vehicle, the AWD and performance were introduced at the same time.

Of course if releasing them all at the same time was so easy, why would they not include the RWD version.

Tesla doesn't do thing the way that others do.

By the way, on the lines that you worked on, how many vehicles had different numbers of motors. Sure, it's a cheap shot, but is it?

 

[CYBEAST]

Sure, but Tesla didn't do that with the Model 3.

The Model 3 performance wasn't released until about 9 months after production started. The AWD wasn't for months after that.
And since the Model Y was essentially the same vehicle, the AWD and performance were introduced at the same time.

Of course if releasing them all at the same time was so easy, why would they not include the RWD version.

Tesla doesn't do thing the way that others do.

By the way, on the lines that you worked on, how many vehicles had different numbers of motors. Sure, it's a cheap shot, but is it?

Well we did have 4 cylinders and v6, different transmissions, sunroofs or no sunroof, etc. arguably way more extra parts than Tesla is doing on the cybertruck that both models are very similar besides the drivetrain. Just seems strange to me as advanced as Tesla is in manufacturing, I can’t buy its much else than lack of parts.

 

[dandor]

Sounds right. Good info. So 242 normal people have already taken deliver? Or some of those haven’t taken delivery yet but have a vin assigned? So we have 13 on the spreadsheet. Maybe 50 real people have taken delivery? That’s 26% are on the spreadsheet.

Got that VIN# mixed up with another thread here. So deliveries to normal people started earlier than that. I would say way more than 100 normal people have taken delivery at this point.

 

[Woodrick]

I think it’s both. We can count on our spreadsheet of orders it’s about 30% beasts. I am just guessing 1/3 rd of actual CT orderers are in this forum and added their order to the spreadsheet. I’m up to hear anyone’s opinion on it.

This forum indicates that it has a little less than 22,000 members. Does that change your viewpoint?

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