Sponsored

CYBEAST

Well-known member
First Name
Jason
Joined
Dec 17, 2023
Threads
14
Messages
308
Reaction score
427
Location
Destin, Florida
Vehicles
Cyber Beast
Occupation
Real Estate
Country flag
The way I read his comments are in general 1 out of 3 orders anywhere are for Beast.
That is different than you saying that 1 out of 3 orders are "on this forum". HTH
I think it’s both. We can count on our spreadsheet of orders it’s about 30% beasts. I am just guessing 1/3 rd of actual CT orderers are in this forum and added their order to the spreadsheet. I’m up to hear anyone’s opinion on it.
Sponsored

 

GuyV

Well-known member
First Name
Guy
Joined
Aug 17, 2023
Threads
1
Messages
814
Reaction score
1,073
Location
St. Louis, MO
Vehicles
Tesla Model S, FS Cybertruck AWD
Occupation
Retired
Country flag
You wouldn't believe how often my DM's are from employee's who want to know ANYTHING.

They're very very in the dark. On the other side, they can absolutely know more if they know how to navigate their own system.
Some of their "oldtimers" also have contacts, though they are usually service not sales guys. Haha, I don't think Telsa likes having their sales people know too much. :LOL:
 

SixZo

Active member
Joined
Dec 15, 2023
Threads
1
Messages
33
Reaction score
81
Location
CA
Vehicles
2024 Cyberbeast, 2022 Model 3 Performance
Country flag
You wouldn't believe how often my DM's are from employee's who want to know ANYTHING.

They're very very in the dark. On the other side, they can absolutely know more if they know how to navigate their own system.
All I'll say on this is that it is indeed very true. :censored:
 
Last edited:

newwave1331

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 30, 2020
Threads
12
Messages
526
Reaction score
1,465
Location
NJ
Vehicles
Ordered: Cybertruck Tri FSD x 3
Country flag
New VINs for 1/23/2024
66 AWD (#1299-1364)
*New Record Day
29% more than the previous record!

Tesla Cybertruck Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations) Screenshot 2024-01-23 200326
Tesla Cybertruck Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations) Screenshot 2024-01-23 200345
Tesla Cybertruck Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations) Screenshot 2024-01-23 200310
 
OP
OP
cvalue13

cvalue13

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 17, 2022
Threads
74
Messages
7,153
Reaction score
13,769
Location
Austin, TX
Vehicles
F150L
Occupation
Fun-employed
Country flag
Do you really think 1/3 of orders are on this forum? I find it hard to imagine it would be that high. I hope you are right in that it would mean fewer people ahead in the line, but I would be surprised if it was even 10%.
two things:

first, in the context above, I was meaning this forum’s order list as a sample pool, 1/3 are beast, so (perhaps) 1/3 of total orders are for a beast

second, I separately do actually think this forum’s order list has a surprisingly high capture rate. There were the existing ~20K members who knew of this site and once received invites/orders/heard they were going out might circle back. Then there were fairly prominent xwitter Cybertruck influenzas and other forums pointing to our order list - lots of folks getting invites etc and taking to the web for info (lord knows Resla wasn’t giving it) would have found this forum/the order list.

what percentage I wouldn’t say. But I’d feel good about a bet of at least 1/3. I’d wouldn’t be too surprised to find out it’s much higher.

but that’s just my personal bet
 


dandor

Well-known member
First Name
Dan
Joined
Dec 12, 2023
Threads
4
Messages
298
Reaction score
906
Location
Central Valley, California
Vehicles
Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertruck
Country flag
The capture rate for this forum in my opinion statistically looks pretty low. I got my VIN today and it was a 1/17 captured VIN. We have 13 people that filled out the form for people that received their vehicle. At this point there have been way more than 13 Cybertrucks delivered to regular people. I would say 10 to 20% maximum is the capture rate for orders. 10,000 Foundation Series vehicles seems very probable at this point.
 

CYBEAST

Well-known member
First Name
Jason
Joined
Dec 17, 2023
Threads
14
Messages
308
Reaction score
427
Location
Destin, Florida
Vehicles
Cyber Beast
Occupation
Real Estate
Country flag
The capture rate for this forum in my opinion statistically looks pretty low. I got my VIN today and it was a 1/17 captured VIN. We have 13 people that filled out the form for people that received their vehicle. At this point there have been way more than 13 Cybertrucks delivered to regular people. I would say 10 to 20% maximum is the capture rate for orders. 10,000 Foundation Series vehicles seems very probable at this point.
I see what you are saying. I think once people get the vehicle they loose interest in looking for information on this forum.
 

dandor

Well-known member
First Name
Dan
Joined
Dec 12, 2023
Threads
4
Messages
298
Reaction score
906
Location
Central Valley, California
Vehicles
Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertruck
Country flag
I see what you are saying. I think once people get the vehicle they loose interest in looking for information on this forum.
Don't underestimate people's motive of showing off! I would agree that eventually it will tail off after 1000's are delivered. However, the low post rate of VIN's and deliveries on the forum shows me that the capture rate is right around 10%.
 

CYBEAST

Well-known member
First Name
Jason
Joined
Dec 17, 2023
Threads
14
Messages
308
Reaction score
427
Location
Destin, Florida
Vehicles
Cyber Beast
Occupation
Real Estate
Country flag
At what vin # did we see deliveries to normal people? 500s? Seems like they are under 1000 now on actual delivered models right?
 

dandor

Well-known member
First Name
Dan
Joined
Dec 12, 2023
Threads
4
Messages
298
Reaction score
906
Location
Central Valley, California
Vehicles
Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertruck
Country flag
At what vin # did we see deliveries to normal people? 500s? Seems like they are under 1000 now on actual delivered models right?
The first VIN confirmed for a "normal" person was 1046. That was a VIN captured date of 1/10. That was when VIN numbers were at 573. So right around 500 for normal people sounds right. I assume that all VIN's were distributed for the week of 1/15, since I had one of the last one's for that week and it was assigned to me. So that brings us to about 742 that should be accounted for so far. The majority of those are Employees and influencers, but we should still see more VIN's being posted here if there are only 3000 FS Cybertrucks made. 10,000 is the number I am sticking by right now, it just makes sense.
 


CYBEAST

Well-known member
First Name
Jason
Joined
Dec 17, 2023
Threads
14
Messages
308
Reaction score
427
Location
Destin, Florida
Vehicles
Cyber Beast
Occupation
Real Estate
Country flag
Sounds right. Good info. So 242 normal people have already taken deliver? Or some of those haven’t taken delivery yet but have a vin assigned? So we have 13 on the spreadsheet. Maybe 50 real people have taken delivery? That’s 26% are on the spreadsheet.
 

Woodrick

Well-known member
First Name
Ed
Joined
Dec 30, 2023
Threads
6
Messages
4,786
Reaction score
4,762
Location
Gainesville Ga
Vehicles
Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck AWD
Occupation
Consultant
Country flag
I worked for an Auto Manufacturer on an assembly line for 9 years in my prior career. When we launched a new model, day 1 we built all the different trims. Of course I’ve never worked for Tesla. But they clearly have built 50 or so beasts already. It has to be a parts supply issue. I don’t think they are still practicing. They did that the past few years.
Sure, but Tesla didn't do that with the Model 3.

The Model 3 performance wasn't released until about 9 months after production started. The AWD wasn't for months after that.
And since the Model Y was essentially the same vehicle, the AWD and performance were introduced at the same time.

Of course if releasing them all at the same time was so easy, why would they not include the RWD version.

Tesla doesn't do thing the way that others do.

By the way, on the lines that you worked on, how many vehicles had different numbers of motors. Sure, it's a cheap shot, but is it?
 

CYBEAST

Well-known member
First Name
Jason
Joined
Dec 17, 2023
Threads
14
Messages
308
Reaction score
427
Location
Destin, Florida
Vehicles
Cyber Beast
Occupation
Real Estate
Country flag
Sure, but Tesla didn't do that with the Model 3.

The Model 3 performance wasn't released until about 9 months after production started. The AWD wasn't for months after that.
And since the Model Y was essentially the same vehicle, the AWD and performance were introduced at the same time.

Of course if releasing them all at the same time was so easy, why would they not include the RWD version.

Tesla doesn't do thing the way that others do.

By the way, on the lines that you worked on, how many vehicles had different numbers of motors. Sure, it's a cheap shot, but is it?
Well we did have 4 cylinders and v6, different transmissions, sunroofs or no sunroof, etc. arguably way more extra parts than Tesla is doing on the cybertruck that both models are very similar besides the drivetrain. Just seems strange to me as advanced as Tesla is in manufacturing, I can’t buy its much else than lack of parts.
 

dandor

Well-known member
First Name
Dan
Joined
Dec 12, 2023
Threads
4
Messages
298
Reaction score
906
Location
Central Valley, California
Vehicles
Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertruck
Country flag
Sounds right. Good info. So 242 normal people have already taken deliver? Or some of those haven’t taken delivery yet but have a vin assigned? So we have 13 on the spreadsheet. Maybe 50 real people have taken delivery? That’s 26% are on the spreadsheet.
Got that VIN# mixed up with another thread here. So deliveries to normal people started earlier than that. I would say way more than 100 normal people have taken delivery at this point.
 

Woodrick

Well-known member
First Name
Ed
Joined
Dec 30, 2023
Threads
6
Messages
4,786
Reaction score
4,762
Location
Gainesville Ga
Vehicles
Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck AWD
Occupation
Consultant
Country flag
I think it’s both. We can count on our spreadsheet of orders it’s about 30% beasts. I am just guessing 1/3 rd of actual CT orderers are in this forum and added their order to the spreadsheet. I’m up to hear anyone’s opinion on it.
This forum indicates that it has a little less than 22,000 members. Does that change your viewpoint?
Sponsored

 
 








Top