Only limited edition $99k/$120k Foundation Series Cybertruck’s for 2024?

[Cybergirl]

Nah, it's supply and demand. Basic economics we learned in high school.

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[BeleeEV]

I see so many people crunching math based on entire reserved list of 2,000,000. Truth is as far as any evidence we have, they have yet to make a FS offer to an RN that is later than the first 24hours.
So if 2024 is nearly sold out as per the earnings call and we haven’t finished with the first 24 hours of RN’s, the talk about them rolling through all 2 mil then coming back around in 2024 to start the list over seems off the charts unrealistic

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The $20k markup is being overstated. I wonder what percentage of Tesla owners don't buy Enhanced Autopilot? At $6k, I imagine nearly every Tesla buyer adds the option, or else you might as well just buy a Honda Civic.

Sure FSD hasn't delivered on its promise, which is why the take rate for the $12k FSD package is so low. But $7k FSD (if you preordered), versus $6k EAP, it seems like a no brainer to pay $1k more. I suppose someone who really hates FSD may just pick EAP, but I don't see the logic. With the other $13k of FS stuff, if you don't own a home there's a much greater lack of value and I won't debate this other stuff truly feels optional. But the real FS markup is $13k.

Some of us reserved FSD at $7K so, yes, that would make the markup $13K. But I doubt many would think the wheel and tire upgrade a throwaway and some have priced that at $4K. I have the Tesla connectivity and would definitively get that and it is worth $1K. In fact, everything BUT the power sharing options would have been on my list of things to get, the difference only being ‘when’ I would have gotten them. So I see the markup more like $7K.

I wonder if maybe the ‘markup’ is less an issue than the massive increase in base price for the dual from $50K to $80K. I semi-quote the word “increase” because I am guessing that most people that put in reservations budgeted $50K for the dual, and a 60% increase would never have been imaginable as reasonable/possible for budgeting purposes. When you add a $7K ‘markup’ to $30K then I can see it seem like adding insult to injury even if the items in the $20K are mostly reasonable.

Sorry for going a bit off topic. I would gladly pay the $7K extra to put in my order now.

 

[Cactusrick]

yeah that's one way of looking at it...

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I see so many people crunching math based on entire reserved list of 2,000,000. Truth is as far as any evidence we have, they have yet to make a FS offer to an RN that is later than the first 24hours.
So if 2024 is nearly sold out as per the earnings call and we haven’t finished with the first 24 hours of RN’s, the talk about them rolling through all 2 mil then coming back around in 2024 to start the list over seems off the charts unrealistic

The order list shows people with reservations up to November 23rd doesn’t it? That would be 48 hours not 24 hours. Didn’t Tesla send out a mail in December to low-number reservation holders? I got one of those emails and my number, according to our tracker here, is out at 250,000. And orders have been taken for reservation holders at about 150,000. No matter what date they ‘say’ they reserved I doubt there were 150,000 orders in 25 hours. I reserved on November 26th.

 

[BeleeEV]

24 to 48hrs. That’s still 1/8th of the 2mil+ total reservations is my point, to be “almost sold out”

 

[BeleeEV]

But hey, this is all one more area for us to speculate about. That’s what we can do here to keep busy like we have since 2019. I am blessed to be on the waiting for vin side of things and I hope we all get ours at the earliest circumstances will allow….

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

24 to 48hrs. That’s still 1/8th of the 2mil+ total reservations is my point, to be “almost sold out”

Well I don’t buy the almost sold out bit at all. But that is mostly hopium speaking

 

[cvalue13]

I agree. I don’t see any incentive for Tesla to stop selling FS trucks anytime soon. If demand exceeds production, why would they lower the price by discontinuing the FS?

not exactly singling out @seanocono here, but his post basically mirrors a dozen others in this thread, all providing the arguments for why eg Tesla won’t offer retail MSRP CTs in 2024 (or for some, 2026!)

I won’t deny that the various reasons people cite are rational. These would all be reasons in the “pro” bucket for such an approach.

But people are glossing over all the reasons in the “con” bucket for such an approach. They’re also glossing over the public indications that this isn’t the plan.

So while all the “pro” reasons for selling FS all 2024 (or through 2026!) are rational, they are not performing the final weighing test of the pro vs cons, nor accounting for the public indications that this isn’t Tesla’s plan.

And, in fairness, here’s the ~non public indication that it isn’t Tesla’s plan: me telling you that it is not (at least still presently).


Meanwhile, I’ll only briefly list some of the other indications:

• every “pro” rationale stated here was easily anticipated by Tesla prior to Nov 30, yet despite those pro reasons it was Tesla’s plan to build only 1,000 FS units (this was fact)

• similarly, on Nov 30, Tesla revealed MSRPs for retail pricing, which is not something you do if you don’t expect to offer those vehicles for a year(s) out

• the “pro” reasons being described regarding the CT would ALSO have applied to almost any prior Tesla model during the first year of ramp, yet Tesla has never taken the approach before

• true enough, the “pro” reasons were some but not all the reasons why the plan to build only 1,000 FS has shifted somewhat, but to think it shifted from “only build 1,000” to “build it so long as anyone pays” is a swing that would go too far

• why too far? Well, there are dozens of such reasons (the “cons” few seem to be weighting), but in brief and to include: public/market perception (just look at the complaining here already about even a 1,000 build plan), Foundation buyer perception (you going to tell your VIPs and earliest adopters they’re getting a ‘limited edition’ and then double-screw them by making it a year(s) long non-exclusive?), etc.

• finally (for what I have time to write this AM), people in this “pro” camp keep conveniently characterizing the FS price as free and clear extra margin, only by ignoring that Tesla is including in those prices a broad range up options/additional equipment that also hits their books on separate margin basis - yes, there’s extra margin there, and yes it’s nice to force people to buy eg premium wheels, home power equipment, etc., but no the $20K premium is not not all upside that overrides the “cons”/downside



ultimately, again, perhaps my focus on the above “cons” is disproportionate only based on my bias created by independently knowing that the current plan is not to sell FS all or even most of 2024

but giving some of those breadcrumbs only to somewhat thwart the responses here along the lines of “source?”

if you’ve not been watching the forum long enough for prior instances where I’ve stood behind a point that is contrary to the group think - just know the “source?” demand crowd got real quiet after Nov 30

 

[CyberTW]

Nah, it's supply and demand. Basic economics we learned in high school.

Haha yup!

 

[CyberTW]

not exactly singling out @seanocono here, but his post basically mirrors a dozen others in this thread, all providing the arguments for why eg Tesla won’t offer retail MSRP CTs in 2024 (or for some, 2026!)

I won’t deny that the various reasons people cite are rational. These would all be reasons in the “pro” bucket for such an approach.

But people are glossing over all the reasons in the “con” bucket for such an approach. They’re also glossing over the public indications that this isn’t the plan.

So while all the “pro” reasons for selling FS all 2024 (or through 2026!) are rational, they are not performing the final weighing test of the pro vs cons, nor accounting for the public indications that this isn’t Tesla’s plan.

And, in fairness, here’s the ~non public indication that it isn’t Tesla’s plan: me telling you that it is not (at least still presently).


Meanwhile, I’ll only briefly list some of the other indications:

• every “pro” rationale stated here was easily anticipated by Tesla prior to Nov 30, yet despite those pro reasons it was Tesla’s plan to build only 1,000 FS units (this was fact)

• similarly, on Nov 30, Tesla revealed MSRPs for retail pricing, which is not something you do if you don’t expect to offer those vehicles for a year(s) out

• the “pro” reasons being described regarding the CT would ALSO have applied to almost any prior Tesla model during the first year of ramp, yet Tesla has never taken the approach before

• true enough, the “pro” reasons were some but not all the reasons why the plan to build only 1,000 FS has shifted somewhat, but to think it shifted from “only build 1,000” to “build it so long as anyone pays” is a swing that would go too far

• why too far? Well, there are dozens of such reasons (the “cons” few seem to be weighting), but in brief and to include: public/market perception (just look at the complaining here already about even a 1,000 build plan), Foundation buyer perception (you going to tell your VIPs and earliest adopters they’re getting a ‘limited edition’ and then double-screw them by making it a year(s) long non-exclusive?), etc.

• finally (for what I have time to write this AM), people in this “pro” camp keep conveniently characterizing the FS price as free and clear extra margin, only by ignoring that Tesla is including in those prices a broad range up options/additional equipment that also hits their books on separate margin basis - yes, there’s extra margin there, and yes it’s nice to force people to buy eg premium wheels, home power equipment, etc., but no the $20K premium is not not all upside that overrides the “cons”/downside



ultimately, again, perhaps my focus on the above “cons” is disproportionate only based on my bias created by independently knowing that the current plan is not to sell FS all or even most of 2024

but giving some of those breadcrumbs only to somewhat thwart the responses here along the lines of “source?”

if you’ve not been watching the forum long enough for prior instances where I’ve stood behind a point that is contrary to the group think - just know the “source?” demand crowd got real quiet after Nov 30

Thanks CV13! Voice of reason and reality is much needed on here lately

 

[intimidator]

My guess would be yes, $100K or more for Cybertrucks in 2024.

I feel bad for those dreamy eyed folks that thought they would get a Cybertruck for $50-$60,000 dollars.

If we can start getting a $79,900 Cybertruck in 2025, I guess we will have to be grateful.

 

[Celiboy]

Personally I wouldn’t trade those things for more range simply because range is not necessarily what I need. As far as price goes, for better or worse, it’s not an issue that I need to consider.

the CT AWD has roughly the same range as my 3 and I don’t tow. I gotta believe there are a significant number of CT res holders in this same camp.

That being said, I can see why there may be some disappointment with the range of you were planning on towing long distances. I feel like the range will come eventually. Just maybe not the truck for the towing crowd right now?

I agree. For the most part I’m in the same boat. 90% will be daily driving to and from work, running around town and maybe some out of town trips without towing. I will be towing a boat but the lakes are within the CTs towing range generally. The few outlier lakes I’ll just have to plan my stops. No biggie since those will only be a few times a year. I’m in California so there are plenty of Superchargers available along most highways.

 

[WoodChuckDad]

Count me among the dreamy eyed who were hoping for a $50-60 K truck. My dodge has 278,000 miles on it. I guess I’ll roll it to 300 before looking for a replacement. CT was gonna be my new farm truck. I’ll probably buy a used Ram or Ford ice truce in a couple years. Maybe I’ll satisfy my EV lust with a model 3 when my Nissan hits the 250 k mark.

 

[Celiboy]

24 to 48hrs. That’s still 1/8th of the 2mil+ total reservations is my point, to be “almost sold out”

Maybe the “sold out” is a reflection of how many units they expect/believe they can produce in 2024? Elon has said the ramp is going slower than expected and has previously said how complicated and difficult the truck is to produce. None us know what is actually going on behind closed doors so all we can do is wait for our opportunity to order the truck and wait for delivery.

FWIW, I’m no Elon fan at all. I think he’s a bigoted bully who throws his weight around being the richest man in the world to compensate for probably being bullied himself as a child.

I currently own Teslas and have been looking forward to this truck like everyone else. I see buying it as less benefiting Elon, as I’m helping the folks behind the scenes working their butts off that have no control over what garbage comes out his mouth.

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