Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations)

[Tony stank]

Sick! When did you configure?

12/8 invite, 12/9 4:30 pm ordered.


Also greggertruck replied to me ?. I been religiously following your CT posts on twitter.

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[donnyb]

12/8 invite, 12/9 4:30 pm ordered.


Also greggertruck replied to me ?. I been religiously following your CT posts on twitter.

I hope we are getting to the end of 12/8-9 invites!

 

[greggertruck]

12/8 invite, 12/9 4:30 pm ordered.


Also greggertruck replied to me ?. I been religiously following your CT posts on twitter.

Duuuuude thanks. It’s nice to be appreciated. Been a lot to keep a finger on the pulse(s) and I’m so pumped for people to take deliveries and love it

Look forward to hearing your smooth delivery experience soon!

 

[Coltpete]

Duuuuude thanks. It’s nice to be appreciated. Been a lot to keep a finger on the pulse(s) and I’m so pumped for people to take deliveries and love it

Look forward to hearing your smooth delivery experience soon!

I'll second that. Keep up the great work on X! Long time follower.

 

[ATXHOCKEYGAMER]

Dec 8 AWD Order
Austin, TX
Feb 4 VIN 15xx

 

[Ward L]

Dec 8 AWD Order
Austin, TX
Feb 4 VIN 15xx

This is just amazing! Almost 3 months later and we are still getting 12/8 - 12/9 order deliveries! How long until the next batch of email invitations start getting VINs?

Congrats!

 

[cvalue13]

This is just amazing! Almost 3 months later and we are still getting 12/8 - 12/9 order deliveries! How long until the next batch of email invitations start getting VINs?

Congrats!

to take the observation one step further:

consider the implication for how many CT’s have actually been delivered since Nov 30

one might see the various delivery posts here and elsewhere on social media, and be inclined to think eg “and we’re only seeing [10]% of delivered trucks, so there must be a lot out there now!”


I don’t think so

On the contrary, I think we’re actually seeing social media etc reports of deliveries that represent a HIGH proportion of every truck delivered to date

@newwave1331 - thoughts? ??

 

[Ward L]

to take the observation one step further:

consider the implication for how many CT’s have actually been delivered since Nov 30

one might see the various delivery posts here and elsewhere on social media, and be inclined to think eg “and we’re only seeing [10]% of delivered trucks, so there must be a lot out there now!”


I don’t think so

On the contrary, I think we’re actually seeing social media etc reports of deliveries that represent a HIGH proportion of every truck delivered to date

@newwave1331 - thoughts? ??

The math says very few of CT deliveries are going to CT Owners Club forum members. I don’t see the delivery announcements on X. We have 36 members that have taken delivery. The latest VIN announcement is 1500. If the first VIN was 700(?), that is 800 CT. 36/800 = 4.5%. (This isn’t quite right as I’m counting VINs here and not deliveries.) This means only 4.5% of FSCT deliveries are being reported on this forum.

 

[MarkM913]

@cvalue13 fo you mind posting or sending the lastest raw data as of the day the activation checking was cut off. I have most of it but I want to verify my data and I'm still trying to connect VIN assignments / deliveries with the activation list. I beleive Tesla cut it off and it won't be back up anytime soon... but at least we have the data through January!

 

[agordon117]

The math says very few of CT deliveries are going to CT Owners Club forum members. I don’t see the delivery announcements on X. We have 36 members that have taken delivery. The latest VIN announcement is 1500. If the first VIN was 700(?), that is 800 CT. 36/800 = 4.5%. (This isn’t quite right as I’m counting VINs here and not deliveries.) This means only 4.5% of FSCT deliveries are being reported on this forum.

While I agree we are not seeing a large proportion of people posting their deliveries vs actual deliveries, we have no way to know which vins have and haven't been delivered but were already produced. Someone has a vin in the 700s in florida that they aren't allowed to pick up yet. It could very well be that half of the trucks that have been produced are still in transit or holding somewhere. We just don't know. So the math leading to 4.5% is flawed at best.

 

[Ward L]

While I agree we are not seeing a large proportion of people posting their deliveries vs actual deliveries, we have no way to know which vins have and haven't been delivered but were already produced. Someone has a vin in the 700s in florida that they aren't allowed to pick up yet. It could very well be that half of the trucks that have been produced are still in transit or holding somewhere. We just don't know. So the math leading to 4.5% is flawed at best.

You must admit it is very curious only orders placed within the first two days (12/8-9) have VINs. Maybe 50,000 invitation emails went out on 12/8 and the second batch of emails went out several days later. I’ll have to check our invite list for the email date.

 

[agordon117]

You must admit it is very curious only orders placed within the first two days (12/8-9) have VINs. Maybe 50,000 invitation emails went out on 12/8 and the second batch of emails went out several days later. I’ll have to check our invite list for the email date.

I mean, it's an interesting data point. I don't know if there's anything weird there. We don't know how many invites they sent out, nor how many they have shipped. But even if you assume very low numbers of invites (high percentage reporting here on the forum), it would be very reasonable to expect that only first day invites are getting deliveries so far.

I very selfishly hope that it's just some coincidence that only 12/8 and 12/9 orders are posting deliveries, and that we are actually much closer to my 1/9 invite... but it just doesn't seem like the case.

 

[MarkM913]

You must admit it is very curious only orders placed within the first two days (12/8-9) have VINs. Maybe 50,000 invitation emails went out on 12/8 and the second batch of emails went out several days later. I’ll have to check our invite list for the email date.

There are some VINs that have been assigned from the second wave of invites... and possibly even the 3rd. Especially from FL...

Would be nice to have a VIN assignment list!

 

[Ward L]

I mean, it's an interesting data point. I don't know if there's anything weird there. We don't know how many invites they sent out, nor how many they have shipped. But even if you assume very low numbers of invites (high percentage reporting here on the forum), it would be very reasonable to expect that only first day invites are getting deliveries so far.

I very selfishly hope that it's just some coincidence that only 12/8 and 12/9 orders are posting deliveries, and that we are actually much closer to my 1/9 invite... but it just doesn't seem like the case.

I am about reservation number is 43,000. I got an email to order on 12/8. I think I have seen where reservation # 100,000 got the email. Assuming Tesla sends order invite emails by reservation number, at least 100,000 invite emails have gone out. Sorry, but it is no coincidence we are seeing deliveries to early invites only. The only reason I am commenting on this forum is because I waited until 12/31 to order and have not received a VIN yet. I believe this forum represents 5 - 10% of the people that have received an invite to order email.

 

[agordon117]

I am about reservation number is 43,000. I got an email to order on 12/8. I think I have seen where reservation # 100,000 got the email. Assuming Tesla sends order invite emails by reservation number, at least 100,000 invite emails have gone out. Sorry, but it is no coincidence we are seeing deliveries to early invites only. The only reason I am commenting on this forum is because I waited until 12/31 to order and have not received a VIN yet. I believe this forum represents 5 - 10% of the people that have received an invite to order email.

I guess I'm not clear what point you were trying to make about the deliveries so far only being 12/8 and 12/9 invitees. We still seem to be early in the list of orders, is my only point. You said it's "weird" that deliveries are only happening to 12/8 and 12/9 people (or at least that the ones reporting delivery are 12/8 and 12/9 orders), that was all I was taking exception to. I don't think it's weird at all.

We know that deliveries and even invites are not happening exactly in order, because of some very early reservation holders being skipped. I don't know if they all eventually received an invite, but I believe some did in the last week or so. This means we have literally zero basis for assuming how many invites were sent out, unfortunately.

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