Cybertruck will be the last Tesla to use stainless steel exoskeleton

[CarMan ElecTruck]

…but different CT iterations could continue for years.

possibly

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[HaulingAss]

I took a stab at estimating the numbers after 3Q 2024 data were available:

The numbers shouldn't be much different for 4Q 2024. The pricing of the CT went down, due to the introduction of the non-Foundation option, but sales didn't rise.

I don't think I'm going out on much of a limb to predict that Cybertruck sales in 2025 will 2X over 2024. Watch and see. A few short-sighted people are too quick to pull the trigger after only the first year of production (even though Elon cautioned at the beginning of 2024 that the ramp would be a slow and measured production ramp, not a "balls to the wall" production ramp).

 

[CyberStache]

And that raises another issue. There are two kinds of people who might buy a Cybertruck:

(1) People who are in the market for an electric vehicle.
(2) People who are in the market for a pickup.

It's ideal for Tesla when Cybertruck buyers come from Group 2. Tesla wants people to buy a CT instead of an ICE F-150 or Silverado or Ram or Tundra. In that case, Tesla steals a customer away from Ford or GM or Stellantis or Toyota, and increases the size of their own customer base.

But I don't think this is particularly common. I would acknowledge that the CT is stealing customers from other EV pickups, like the F-150 Lightning or the Rivian R1T. However, EV pickups are only a small fraction of the pickup market. I doubt that the CT is having any significant impact on the enormous ICE pickup sector..

I think most CT buyers are in Group 1, and that a high percentage of them are existing Tesla customers. If that's true, then the CT is not doing much to expand Tesla's customer base. In other words, the CT isn't so much stealing customers from the ICE F-Series or Silverado -- it's more likely cannibalizing customers from the Model S and Model X.

I’d add there’s a third group: car people that want something different. Something iconic.
I’m not a truck guy or an EV guy but I’ve always had vehicles that were a little different.
And I was in a position to afford one.

People like me…we’ve already bought the Cybertruck…there aren’t many of us left that want one.

So my guess would be in a year or two Tesla will introduce a more traditional looking truck that will appeal to the masses and get the truck guys.

but the Cybertruck as it current is….wont get mass market appeal.

 

[YDR37]

When I read the slide deck my conclusion was that Tesla was not ruling out using stainless steel going forward, they were simply indicating none of their planned lineup would be using it. ...

But Tesla has not ruled out new models in the future that use it, they have just indicated none of their planned models are designed around it. This means if there were to be more Tesla vehicles using cold-rolled full hard stainless steel they would not hit the market for at least 5-7 years, if ever.

You can see the table in question on page 15 of the slide deck here.

The last column of the table is labelled "Use in Future Vehicles":

48V Electrical Architecture: Check!
800V Battery System: Check!
Steer-by-Wire: Check!
Rear-Wheel Steering: Check!
Adaptive Air Suspension: Check!
Lots of Other Things: Check!

Stainless Steel Exoskeleton: [big empty blank space]
Air Bending Process: [big empty blank space]

If the "Use in Future Vehicles" box is not checked, then it seems like a sign that Tesla doesn't plan to use the technology in future vehicles. But maybe that's just my interpretation.

 

[cybercricket]

CT will certainly will hit a "wall" in its current shape because of the all 3: price, range and utility. Good news is Tesla only needs to make "minor" modifications to the vehicle in order to expand the market. While the range increase may be a bit tricky (battery capacity increase without taking bed space), there is a very low hanging fruit with towing capacity. I believe that's the biggest obstacle towards CT adoption for a lot of "work truck" customers. I'm basically making the same claim I've made before, but what it boils down to is the following :

Average skid steer (Bobcat, etc) - 8000lb
skid steer attachments - 2000lb
trailer - 3000lb
random stuff buffer - 1000lb

So towing rating for CT needs to be upped to 14-15k, and it's a pretty straightforward task given the limit currently is only in the rear bumper/hitch receiver design. They could even just go straight for making a gooseneck setup to overcome the limit and keep the current rear bumper as-is for lighter loads.

 

[shopaholic]

I agree with most of your comments- it’s really a shame that a segment of public is anti Tesla and demonizing CT in particular because of Elon’s political affiliation. The other billionaires are spared as they keep out of public eye, though they are supporting one or other parties.

 

[igs]

CT will certainly will hit a "wall" in its current shape because of the all 3: price, range and utility. Good news is Tesla only needs to make "minor" modifications to the vehicle in order to expand the market. While the range increase may be a bit tricky (battery capacity increase without taking bed space), there is a very low hanging fruit with towing capacity. I believe that's the biggest obstacle towards CT adoption for a lot of "work truck" customers. I'm basically making the same claim I've made before, but what it boils down to is the following :

Average skid steer (Bobcat, etc) - 8000lb
skid steer attachments - 2000lb
trailer - 3000lb
random stuff buffer - 1000lb

So towing rating for CT needs to be upped to 14-15k, and it's a pretty straightforward task given the limit currently is only in the rear bumper/hitch receiver design. They could even just go straight for making a gooseneck setup to overcome the limit and keep the current rear bumper as-is for lighter loads.

Another nonsense post. Nearly all truck buyers don't use their truck for work. The market share that does is negligible. The rest just need to pickup groceries.

 

[noobla3]

Wonder how this would affect future availability of parts for the CT if it ever gets wound down.

 

[cybercricket]

Another nonsense post. Nearly all truck buyers don't use their truck for work. The market share that does is negligible. The rest just need to pickup groceries.

Your pants are nonsense. It's already said in this thread that grocery shoppers maxed out the demand for CT in its current form. So perhaps it's actually the time to look at the work pickup market.

 

[igs]

Your pants are nonsense. It's already said in this thread that grocery shoppers maxed out the demand for CT in its current form. So perhaps it's actually the time to look at the work pickup market.

RWD will be out soon ?

 

[cybercricket]

RWD will be out soon ?

And it will be a great option for the grocery shoppers with its lower price and lower utility. It does nothing for people who need a truck for work (beyond carrying plywood and drywall). I don't disagree with you that there are potentially not all that many customers who need to tow heavy equipment for work, but it's a low hanging fruit which is currently unclaimed.

 

[YDR37]

RWD will be out soon ?

Wouldn't count on it. The official Tesla VIN decoder for the 2025 model year is now available. As in 2024, it provides different digits for dual-motor and triple-motor versions of the Cybertruck, but nothing for a single-motor version.

 

[Crissa]

The table doesn't indicate why Tesla is dropping stainless steel. But...

It also doesn't state they're dropping it. It says it isn't applicable to other vehicles.

'Technology application for future vehicles' is not the same as 'will stop using the technology'.

They have no plans for another work truck, so... where else would they use this technology? It would need to be something that needs to be ding resistant and extra stiff while not minding a little extra weight. They weren't able to integrate the structural clips into the stainless steel panels and replace more of the high-strength steel inside the inner capsules.

There's no future application of the gull-wing doors of the X or the tri-motor after the Roadster, either.

-Crissa

 

[CyberGus]

Stainless Steel Exoskeleton: [big empty blank space]
Air Bending Process: [big empty blank space]

You mean... Cybertruck is the last airbender? ?

 

[CyberGus]

In my office, I am agnostic in my communications with my clients and staff I am agnostic.

I work with clients, in a large organization. When walking from my parking spot to the office (back when that was a thing lol) I would see plenty of political bumper-stickers espousing candidates or causes that I vehemently oppose, and yet all of my co-workers are (mostly) rational and agreeable people to work with. Avoiding political topics around the water cooler helps keep it that way.

I would never delve into controversial topics with clients. It's a career-limiting move.

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