I’m RN# 11323XXX My place in line is 495,744. How is this possible? Is everyone cancelling?

[ELCTRUK]

When? At the release at the end of 2023.

Must have conveniently slipped my mind , Thanks

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[HyperReality]

We'll have to wait a while longer to know, but I am concerned the take rate is a lot lower than expected, especially for FS given most people had in mind a much less expensive vehicle.

Yep, most people can not afford it, especially at current loan rates, as most also expected to finance it

 

[Lunars_X]

I too received the same email tonight, RN11332**** and didn't expect to see that email for a year.

I received my invite as well, and from what I see on X, a lot did yesterday. In my case, I ordered a Model Y, and 3 hours later got the invite. RN1132. I've got some decisions to make. $20k extra and no tax credit is leaning me towards waiting for the Non-FS AWD.

 

[GatorCyber]

Must be a 1 in 20 conversion rate. I'd venture to say more than half of the reservation holders have more than 1 reservation. So maybe FS buyers run out this year sometime.
But if people have RN#117, that's 5M reservations to date?

 

[Sjohnson20]

Looks like they ramped up production enough to offer more FS trucks. Now they know how many people bite on the FS invitations. Pretty sure they are going to run the whole list with the FS offer.

 

[CyberNickOH]

It's 102K+tax minimum, lots of people reserved a 40k version, so lots of passing for now is what's happening. I like it, makes the FS more desirable and incredibly rare in my area.

FWIW, I love mine, no regrets.

 

[docowen]

Remember that reservation number sequence does not reflect only Cybertruck but include the rest of the S3XY lineup. The estimators of place in line seem to just reflect the raw number sequence and not specific to Cybertruck. As I have stated before, in looking at the reservation tracker there were a bunch of reservations for Cybertrucks in the week after the reveal but in the following weeks the percentage of Cybertrucks reflected in the RNs seems to have dropped significantly. This leads to moving through the reservation numbers much quicker for a similar number of actual Cybertruck reservations.

 

[Coagulation]

You have to figure there was a significant reduction in initial reservations after the two week frenzy after the 2019 event. I would guess that if you picked a random Thursday in April 2020, the number of cyber truck reservations were probably 10 to 100 times less than the first few days of unveiling.

It probably stays that way for the many years where there was virtually no new news on the thing.

Then, as the 2023 delivery event approached, I bet reservations shut up again.

And now that non-enthusiast to are seeing them on the road in real life and want one, reservations are probably ticking up again.

This is all a long way of saying, we will probably see Tesla working through multiple months in a single “ready to order” batch until we hit basically the past 6 to 8 months.

I would also expect take rate on foundation to be a little bit lower for people who casually reserved several months or years after it was originally announced.

Based on what I am reading, though, once this thing goes down to 80+ tax credit, sales are going to really jump

 

[jsquared]

I am RN #1143xxx and I received my invitation on 5/22. I still haven't configured my truck after reading so many bad news about it.

The ‘bad news’ is all of the people trying to get in line ahead of you, lol. The truck is absolutely amazing.

 

[REM]

I receive my invite as well, and from what I see on X, a lot did yesterday. In my case, I ordered a Model Y, and 3 hours later got the invite. RN1132. I've got some decisions to make. $20k extra and no tax credit is leaning me towards waiting for the Non-FS AWD.

I ended up passing after dropping the deposit for FS in December. Couldn't justify the extra tens of thousands especially after they dropped the price of FSD.

I asked them nicely to reserve my spot in line for a dual motor, non-FS.

 

[lowtek]

Step out of this website and out of the bubble and it's easy to see the bottom will fall out sooner than later just like with rivian and ford

Huh? Neither Ford nor Rivian are attempting to ramp to mass production to the extent Tesla is with the CT.

The FE is just a way to give Tesla time to work out the kinks and ramp production, that's about it, no big secret or conspiracy theory here.

Tesla will continue selling them at a premium until a) production is fully ramped or b) people stop buying them. Why would they do anything else?

Anyone the buys one now is knowingly participating in the beta program ... and I still can't wait for mine.

 

[wtibbit]

I am RN #1143xxx and I received my invitation on 5/22. I still haven't configured my truck after reading so many bad news about it.

Have you read all the good news about it?

 

[BreadMan]

Just received, May 29. I am RN 495,744. How is this possible? Is everyone passing up their opportunity? Am I getting catfished somehow?

The truck costs way more than originally planned and interest rates are way higher than they were when reservations were made. Most people can't afford to pay double the monthly payment they originally expected, so it stands to reason that a lot of people would be forced to pass on the opportunity. Plus a lot of people probably thought their turn would come later after all the bugs are worked out, and they don't want to experience the early adopter headaches.

Edit: Oh, I just realized San Angelo is in TX. That's probably a primary reason as well. I am sure they are geographically prioritizing close deliveries rather than strictly sticking to a first-come-first-served geographically agnostic approach.

 

[Jimmy Chacko]

I am RN #1132xxx and I received my invitation on 5/29. I still haven't configured my truck yet as have not decided to configure or wait for the 80K model.

 

[Cybergirl]

The legacy auto companies are have a terrible time selling their gasoline/diesel/electric trucks, so it makes sense that Tesla is experiencing some reduction in demand for Cybertruck. "It's the economy, stupid." --James Carville

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