Foundation Series is BACK (in Tesla online inventory)!

[Macgreiner]

I'm still trying to come to terms with how gullible some people are. Electrek is a garbage source of news, many of their so-called "sources" have ties to TSLA short-sellers (who are currently feeling the pain and want some relief).

. . and Teslerati/Mars/Sawyer et al have ties to the bulls and Elon fanbois - so what? who is worse?
If something is wrong it should be called out. If something is great it should be shouted from the rooftops.

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[YDR37]

Exactly but that still exceeds production.

Well, that is a valid potential concern, which is why I added the qualifier about "Tesla's expectations".

Tesla does not reveal hard numbers about Cybertruck sales. They have, however, released a hard number about Cybertruck supply. As of 3Q 2024, the installed Cybertruck production capacity was >125,000 per year.

Now, Elon has thrown around even bigger numbers, of 250,000 to 500,000 Cybertrucks per year. But let's disregard the arm-waving, and stick to Tesla's official number of >125,000 per year. That's >10,000 per month.

In October 2024, Tesla reportedly sold 4,041 Cybertrucks. That's obviously less than Tesla's claimed production capacity of >10,000 per month.

However, the October results may not accurately reflect CT sales potential. In October, FS sales were winding down, and non-FS sales were just starting up. Presumably the demand increased in 4Q 2024, as the less expensive non-FS became widely available. So it's too early to draw conclusions about the Cybertruck supply/demand balance.

 

[voxel]

Huh? I've seen Cybertrucks in the inventory in FL for almost a month now.

I didn't want to pay the $20K early adopter fee and ordered/picked up a "poverty spec" $80K version just after Black Friday.

 

[voxel]

Huh. Didn't see that coming. I had just assumed that Tesla was sending FS CTs to stores/service centers all over the country in order to increase their availability. And I still think that Tesla will be happy to take any new sales from people who missed the FS before.

But if that story is true (and Electrek is offering zero proof, just anonymous sources and unspecified documents), then Tesla also has a Plan B and a Plan C.

Plan B: have the service centers refit the FS CTs to meet regulatory standards for Canada, where the FS is still being actively marketed.

Plan C: have the service centers "downgrade" the FS to non-FS, including buffing out the laser-etched badges, and selling them as non-FS CTs for $20,000 less. So this would be a form of "invisible" discounting.

If that story is true (and I stress again that Electrek is offering zero proof), then the newly available FS CTs around the country may not be available for long. If they don't sell, they could be transmogrified into Canadian FS CTs or into American non-FS CTs.

You just need to visit any SC. Cybertruck Foundation Series vehicles are stacking up.

My non-FS was the one of two on the lot on delivery and I saw maybe 30+ FSes around me and the SA mentioned Tesla probably needs to do something to sell them and their solution is probably to convert them to non-FS.

At $100K, the market is very limited for the CT. At $80K, it's a tad larger. At $60K it will sell 100-200K per year IMO.

 

[YDR37]

Huh? I've seen Cybertrucks in the inventory in FL for almost a month now.

A few parts of the country, mostly Florida and Georgia, have had a limited selection of Foundation Series CTs in the inventory system since November. But in most of the country, the FS has not been made available until now. Even in Florida, you'll probably find that the selection and availability have increased. .

 

[YDR37]

You just need to visit any SC. Cybertruck Foundation Series vehicles are stacking up.

My non-FS was the one of two on the lot on delivery and I saw maybe 30+ FSes around me and the SA mentioned Tesla probably needs to do something to sell them and their solution is probably to convert them to non-FS.

OK, I can see how that might be a solution. I just didn't think of it.

 

[zachsmith]

I’m personally not surprised that demand is limited at current prices, even considering the $80k CT.

I just bought a new MY for over $30K less than I would have paid for the CT, plus I got no interest financing which I obviously wouldn’t have with the CT, effectively increasing the cost difference by a lot.

I tried to justify the extra cost because I really wanted the truck, but the polarizing design caused my family to almost beg me not to buy the truck because they don’t want the attention/embarrassment, which I understand, even though I personally like the design. All that put me over the edge, plus the fact that the MY has more interior space in a much smaller footprint.

My point is that Tesla is simply going to have to reduce CT prices if they want bigger volumes, which I think they do. Unless they can sell the CT on other continents which seems a ways away, if ever.

That’s another reason I didn’t buy it- I think it’s going to be cheaper and/or have better financing sometime next year. Everyone here thinks it’s cool, but a lot of regular folks think it’s ugly and don’t want to be seen in it- thereby affecting demand. IMO it will sell well at $70k starting, but not $80k.

 

[voxel]

I’m personally not surprised that demand is limited at current prices, even considering the $80k CT.

I just bought a new MY for over $30K less than I would have paid for the CT, plus I got no interest financing which I obviously wouldn’t have with the CT, effectively increasing the cost difference by a lot.

I tried to justify the extra cost because I really wanted the truck, but the polarizing design caused my family to almost beg me not to buy the truck because they don’t want the attention/embarrassment, which I understand, even though I personally like the design. All that put me over the edge, plus the fact that the MY has more interior space in a much smaller footprint.

My point is that Tesla is simply going to have to reduce CT prices if they want bigger volumes, which I think they do. Unless they can sell the CT on other continents which seems a ways away, if ever.

That’s another reason I didn’t buy it- I think it’s going to be cheaper and/or have better financing sometime next year. Everyone here thinks it’s cool, but a lot of regular folks think it’s ugly and don’t want to be seen in it- thereby affecting demand. IMO it will sell well at $70k starting, but not $80k.

My opinion was probably like yours before I owned a CT.... and I've had my share of Teslas including 3 different Ys between 2021 and 2023. The CT is just so smooth and quiet and that 4-wheel steering is amazing.

I was never in love with any of the Ys... the wind/road/cabin noise was always terrible and the ride quality belonged in a budget Toyota. The CT is easily Tesla's best vehicle (well I never driven the original Roadster.. so maybe the best mass produced vehicle).

I do think Tesla needs to lower the price to match with production output. They could keep it a boutique vehicle and sell 30-40K per year at $80-100K but I think there are aspirations of 100-200K annual sales which means there needs to be a $60K variant in the future.

 

[zachsmith]

My opinion was probably like yours before I owned a CT.... and I've had my share of Teslas including 3 different Ys between 2021 and 2023. The CT is just so smooth and quiet and that 4-wheel steering is amazing.

I was never in love with any of the Ys... the wind/road/cabin noise was always terrible and the ride quality belonged in a budget Toyota. The CT is easily Tesla's best vehicle (well I never driven the original Roadster.. so maybe the best mass produced vehicle).

I do think Tesla needs to lower the price to match with production output. They could keep it a boutique vehicle and sell 30-40K per year at $80-100K but I think there are aspirations of 100-200K annual sales which means there needs to be a $60K variant in the future.

I agree that the ride quality in the CT is amazing and it has a ton of utility and even efficiency for a truck, not to mention all the other features. I test drove one a few times, including one extended drive and it’s awesome. Ive owned two Ys, two 3s, and two Xs, and the CT is clearly superior in several ways.

i just think the current price just won’t work for the demand they’re hoping for, partially because it’s such an attention magnet, which a lot of people don’t like. Where I live there are Teslas absolutely everywhere but CT sightings are still sort of rare. I drove by a Tesla delivery center recently and saw a whole lot of them on the lot. They could be sold already but I’m not so sure.

I foresee a price reduction once the tax credit is gone next year, at least equal to the credit amount, plus lower financing rates.

 

[Jack27]

Order a CT recently?

Be suspicious of a lower VIN on delivery day. It may be a “buffed” Foundation Series truck.

Def be suspicious if you orderd a standard and got a FS because the badge is gone, you’re getting ripped off for
Sure ? mini nutz why you try so hard ? I’m putting you on double secret probation

 

[YDR37]

I do think Tesla needs to lower the price to match with production output. They could keep it a boutique vehicle and sell 30-40K per year at $80-100K but I think there are aspirations of 100-200K annual sales which means there needs to be a $60K variant in the future.

There are clearly aspirations of 100-200K annual sales. Tesla has made an official statement to investors that the installed Cybertruck production capacity was >125,000 per year as of 3Q 2024.

We can all agree that a $60K CT would go a long way towards filling that capacity. And the frustrating thing is that Tesla was taking reservations for a $61K RWD CT as recently as August. Then the RWD option disappeared from Tesla’s website.

At the time, there was speculation that the RWD version would come back after the Foundation Series was over. The FS was replaced by the non-FS in October, but the RWD option is still conspicuously absent.

One possible explanation (not the only one) is that Tesla simply can’t sell a $61K CT at a profit. This would be consistent with a previous Elon claim about the CT, that it is "insanely difficult to make it at a price people can afford". You can’t always take Elon's claims literally, but maybe that one was for real.

 

[SlegMD]

There are clearly aspirations of 100-200K annual sales. Tesla has made an official statement to investors that the installed Cybertruck production capacity was >125,000 per year as of 3Q 2024.

We can all agree that a $60K CT would go a long way towards filling that capacity. And the frustrating thing is that Tesla was taking reservations for a $61K RWD CT as recently as August. Then the RWD option disappeared from Tesla’s website.

At the time, there was speculation that the RWD option would come back after the Foundation Series was over. The FS was replaced by the non-FS in October, but the RWD option is still conspicuously absent.

One possible explanation (not the only one) is that Tesla simply can’t sell a $61K CT at a profit. This would be consistent with a previous Elon claim about the CT, that it is "insanely difficult to make it at a price people can afford". You can’t always take Elon's claims literally, but maybe that one was for real.

What is the cost to manufacture a CT?

 

[YDR37]

What is the cost to manufacture a CT?

Only Tesla knows for sure, and they aren't talking.

With most cars and trucks, the manufacturing processes are generally similar, so an industry insider could probably make a good guess. But Tesla is using unique stainless steel manufacturing processes with the CT. Nobody else is doing that, so nobody else has a good sense for the costs, other than that they are probably expensive.

There's a reason why no other manufacturer builds stainless steel vehicles. It costs a lot.

 

[cardad]

Tesla is actively selling the FS in both Canada and Mexico. In fact, the FS is currently the only option for CT buyers in those countries. Presumably the non-Foundation option will be made available in the future, as it was in the US.

If Tesla ever offers the CT in any other countries (China? Australia?), sales will probably start off with the FS again.

Some article said Tesla was converting FS inventory vehicles into non FS for Canada delivery…

 

[Mini2nut]

If Tesla does open the order books for the $61k RWD trim my guess is the margins will be slimmer than the $80k AWD trim.

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