LFP Cybertruck

[SpaceYooper]

Right now, no one except Tesla even uses 4680s. And they only have the one production line that can consume them.

Right now, they have a surplus of 2170 cells just dying to go into cars. They diverted a bunch into storage last year, but they have excess car production in Texas... why not use it?

-Crissa

The higher end battery operated power tools also use 2170 cells now. If they need to off load some batteries I'm sure Milwaukee and others would be happy to acquire some extra cells. I was at Home Depot yesterday and there were exactly 0 Milwaukee High Output batteries available.

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[happy intruder]

A couple things in no particular order.

LFP 4680
They can make LFP 4680 cells, they might eventually, but right now they are unlikely to have the capacity for it and nobody else is making them. Tesla is definitely planning on making LFP cells in-house but haven’t revealed what form factor they will use. I’m sure whatever they design will be structural, might be 4680, or maybe something more like the BYD Blade.

But Tesla doesn’t have any LFP production online and haven’t even talked about bringing it online yet.

2170 Cells
Panasonic has capacity to produce a lot of 2170 cells that capacity doesn’t go away when Tesla can use 4680s. Tesla needs as much battery capacity as they can wrangle right now and they don’t want to be in a position where they have supply of cells but no vehicle to put them into. Having the flexibility to be able to revert their Model Y to 2170 cells gives Tesla options to ensure they can continue producing Model Ys regardless of how many 4680 cells they need for Cybertruck and friends.

Also, since they are switching more and more of their power storage to LFP, Tesla is freeing up even more 2170 cells. They will want to use every single battery they make up!

LFP Cybertruck
I don’t think we can rule out an LFP Cybertruck. Tesla has been flirting with BYD and the Blade battery might align well with the Cybertruck. Seems to me they would want it to be a structural battery though, not the sort of solution they did with the Model Y.

I think that is all well and good, but people reserved and bought the new MY with the anticipation of getting new tech and the new 4680 battery......how is this gonna go over with people who were told their new MY would have 4680s

 

[Ogre]

I think that is all well and good, but people reserved and bought the new MY with the anticipation of getting new tech and the new 4680 battery......how is this gonna go over with people who were told their new MY would have 4680s

Tesla has never told someone their car will have a specific battery. Nobody has ordered a 4680 Model Y.

Tesla lists specs for the car in terms of range, acceleration, cargo capacity, and charge speed. They will match those specs regardless of battery type or ask the customer if they want to change configurations.

 

[Crissa]

Tesla has never told someone their car will have a specific battery. Nobody has ordered a 4680 Model Y.

Except the people they sold the first LFP batteries in a region. It was like the one time, they asked some people to take delivery of LFP instead of what they ordered.

But yes, they give a range, not a wattage. They never say which formula is in them. They gave up giving a wattage back in the Model S.

Also... the 4680 structural packs are weird because they're not full of batteries, at least not according to the sample packs we saw at the Cyber Rodeo. They might also be doing something with voltage, too.




-Crissa

 

[happy intruder]

Tesla has never told someone their car will have a specific battery. Nobody has ordered a 4680 Model Y.

Tesla lists specs for the car in terms of range, acceleration, cargo capacity, and charge speed. They will match those specs regardless of battery type or ask the customer if they want to change configurations.

well as I have mentioned before, my brother-in law has a lease ending in Jul 22.....Tesla extended in order to get a MY with 4680s from Giga Texas.....so that is what I have been told by him.....he has confirmed it with sales several times.......so I don't know what to tell ya.....I guess we have to wait and will see how it goes.....

 

[firsttruck]

LFP batteries taking over fast: 60% global market share by 2024
Apr 22, 2022
The Electric Viking

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[firsttruck]

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Tesla using no-cobalt LFP batteries way more than we thought!
Apr 23, 2022
The Electric Viking

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Half Of All Teslas Manufactured In Q1 Have LFP Batteries
LFP batteries are Tesla’s response to raw materials shortages.
By Steve Hanley
Published 2022 April 21
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/04/21/half-of-all-teslas-manufactured-in-q1-have-lfp-batteries/

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[Tinker71]

LFP batteries taking over fast: 60% global market share by 2024
Apr 22, 2022
The Electric Viking

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This is precisely why Tesla should consider these batteries for the lower and mid range CT. Why not, range is range. The better the margin, the more likely Tesla will produce in volume.

With the advent of ev assisted trailers a 300 mile range CT with an electric assist camp trailer might still see 250 mile range. So the 500 mile range Tesla might not be needed as much as well.

Swappable LFP batteries for trailers would be awesome. They could be sold without batteries or with leased batteries. The less than 100% utilization makes sense to go with the cheaper batteries.

 

[SpaceYooper]

With the advent of ev assisted trailers a 300 mile range CT with an electric assist camp trailer might still see 250 mile range. So the 500 mile range Tesla might not be needed as much as well.

Possibly true that for some that 500 miles of range may not be as important, but for those of us that need 500 miles of range and trailering never had anything to do with it, we'll still need the 500 mile CT.

 

[firsttruck]

Possibly true that for some that 500 miles of range may not be as important, but for those of us that need 500 miles of range and trailering never had anything to do with it, we'll still need the 500 mile CT.

Right, but Tesla already committed to having Cybertrucks with different ranges so we are not asking Tesla to reduce the model you want.

I think there might be a lot of potential buyers that have no mountains in their regular driving area who would prefer the price of lower cost Cybertruck that could daily be charged to full 100% 250-300mi (LFP can, not recommended for nickel cells )even if the truck's usable max. payload and towing weight limits were slightly reduced.

Also LFP ( LiFePO4 ) cells have many more charge/discharge cycles so much longer life if using Cybertruck to power external equipment or VtH (vehicle to home).

 

[Qball]

Doubt LFP will make it into CT any time soon. This is the very beginning of LFP research and it has potential to get close to lithium batteries eventually but won’t be for a few years. Maybe Tesla will make even bigger 6990 LFP cells down the road.

 

[Ogre]

Doubt LFP will make it into CT any time soon. This is the very beginning of LFP research and it has potential to get close to lithium batteries eventually but won’t be for a few years. Maybe Tesla will make even bigger 6990 LFP cells down the road.

LFP has been around long enough for patents to expire.

In China where they didn’t hold patents it is a huge part of the BEV market.

 

[firsttruck]

Doubt LFP will make it into CT any time soon. This is the very beginning of LFP research
...

LFP has been researched for more than 25 years. One the most widely renown battery researcher, John B. Goodenough, worked with LiFePo4 back in 1996.

LiFePO 4: A Novel Cathode Material for Rechargeable Batteries", A.K. Padhi, K.S. Nanjundaswamy, J.B. Goodenough, Electrochemical Society Meeting Abstracts, 96-1, May, 1996, pp 73

Doubt LFP will make it into CT any time soon. This is the very beginning of LFP research and it has potential to get close to lithium batteries eventually but won’t be for a few years.

For many EV applications LFP is already overall as good as nickel batteries of a few years ago.

BYD LFP Blade battery had not been released when Tesla announced Cybertruck in 2019.
BYD first announced the launch of the Blade Battery in March 2020.

In 2019 nobody knew of a production ready LFP structural battery.

VW-Related Guoxuan High-Tech Launches Record-Setting 210 Wh/kg LFP Battery Cells The plan for 2022 is to reach 260 Wh/kg.
LFP on par with NCM523 lithium-ion cells.
Jan 24, 2021
By: Mark Kane
https://insideevs.com/news/481770/guoxuan-210-whkg-lfp-battery-cells/

Doubt LFP will make it into CT any time soon.

Cybertruck is not shipping today and once production starts will be produced for many years.
The initial production of Cybertrucks in 2023 will be with high nickel type batteries.
There should be plenty of time for Tesla to add option for LFP battery in Cybertrucks in 2025-2026.

A battery you can get the raw materials for is better than a non-existent battery you can not make because of unavailable materials.

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LFP Battery News — Is The End Of Nickel In Sight? LFP batteries will see higher demand as prices for nickel soar.
No one can afford to depend on resources that may become unavailable due to armed conflicts or political constraints.
By Steve Hanley Published March 31, 2022
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/31/lfp-battery-news-is-the-end-of-nickel-in-sight/

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[Crissa]

LFP only really loses in the volumetric difference, given the same cell form factor. But it also loses in the weight one as well.

But since we have long range versions, those can have one cell chemistry while the standard range can have the less efficient one. They end up taking the same space.

However, an LFP 4680 factory does not yet exist.

-Crissa

 

[Faffle]

Sorry I have to do it again. With the recent announcement that Gigaaustin will produce both 2170 model Y and 4680 model Ys and that GigaBerlin will start with 2170 is clear to me Tesla might be struggling with the 4680s. They also said they won't switch Berlin over until late in the year.

The specifications for the Texas Y with 4680/structural pack are nothing to brag about either. (although they might be sandbagging for now)

LFP batteries and LFP pack design has really improved since 2019. I can't find my source but I thought they recently said that over half the Teslas now come with LFP prismatic cells. We know there are no material constraints with LFP. They are a little safer and more durable.

So my question is why wouldn't Tesla make the 250-300 mile range CT with LFP prismatic cells? Add back 2-300 lbs of structure and reduce the payload by that amount if need be.

My understanding is that mass produced LPF prismatic cells are currently 90 mm tall. The CT battery void is at least 160 mm tall. With the lower density and some intermediate structure there might not be enough room double stack the prismatic in the same space. This might require a 3 cm bulge in the floor pan. I would be ok with it if I got a cheaper CT2 faster.

If the LFP batteries could be made in the 4680 format then no redesign is required. Just a little heavier or maybe the same weight with less range than the CT3.

Impossible for us to know the answer to the ct lfp question for certain but i'm sure tesla will consider it. To me it seems like math, if the numbers work out then it will be made. It's good to have options and while everything seems to be a trade off, i am encouraged by lfp development.

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