🗓️ Foundation Series delivery dates updated: Dual-Motor (January-March) / Tri-Motor (Mid-Late 2024)

[Bkb13]

I bet there will be no more tri motors outside of the foundation orders this year. For dual motors, April or later sounds reasonable.

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[Jhodgesatmb]

Thanks for the heads up! Same on mine. Blue "Start Designing" button on the Manage Reservation page for my reservation. RN1127443XX, in TX.

Now I get to test my resolve to be financially prudent and wait for the non-Foundation AWD that will qualify for the tax credit... or somehow justify 100K for AWD Foundation. With AWD Foundation estimated delivery Jan-Mar 2024, I'm just hoping non-Foundation will deliver summer-fall 2024... I don't know if I can wait until 2025...

Not me :-(

 

[cvalue13]

That is the question isn’t it? That means a really slow ramp.

Couldn’t quite wrap my mind around this and thinking outloud:

Let’s call the Model 3 ramp ‘normal’ speed

4 months in, ~2,400 Model 3s had been built (if I understand Bloomberg’s tracker graphs correctly?)

Would 2,400 CTs by end of March seem really slow?

 

[CyberGus]

Would 2,400 CTs by end of March seem really slow?

It would, when you’re holding your breath

 

[awhehackeur]

Is Tesla running short of motor or having a supply problem?

I believe the expensive TM version of CTs would be prioritized for production over the AWD version to recoup dev cost, but it looks like it is happening in the reverse order. Does this imply that AWD holders may get their CTs earlier than expected? Very odd!!!

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Couldn’t quite wrap my mind around this and thinking outloud:

Let’s call the Model 3 ramp ‘normal’ speed

4 months in, ~2,400 Model 3s had been built (if I understand Bloomberg’s tracker graphs correctly?)

Would 2,400 CTs by end of March seem really slow?

Yes, and here is why. If they hit 250 per week by January 1st, then at a Flat line in production they would build 3,000 Cybertrucks (250/week x 12) by the end of March (and that is with production starting in January and not now). Elon said (and Tesla has historically had) exponential growth, so over some span of time we can expect production to double. If they double every other month then in the first 2 months they will make about 2,000 Cybertrucks and in the third they would make another 2,000. That would be slow, because doubling every other month is slow.

More importantly, the wait is excruciating, and hearing of people getting theirs just makes it worse. Predicting slow growth doesn’t help at all.

 

[Bkb13]

Is Tesla running short of motor or having a supply problem?

I believe the expensive TM version of CTs would be prioritized for production over the AWD version to recoup dev cost, but it looks like it is happening in the reverse order. Does this imply that AWD holders may get their CTs earlier than expected? Very odd!!!

It’s speculated that there is a tri motor power train supply issue.

 

[acey]

Bit disappointing for early reservation holders

 

[Misterbee]

Couldn’t quite wrap my mind around this and thinking outloud:

Let’s call the Model 3 ramp ‘normal’ speed

4 months in, ~2,400 Model 3s had been built (if I understand Bloomberg’s tracker graphs correctly?)

Would 2,400 CTs by end of March seem really slow?

That model 3 ramp was in 2018. I would think that they’ve improved their ability to ramp up since then.

 

[DumpsterFire]

Wow! Just checked the web link (tesla.com - login) and was able to configure my order for a Foundation edition. I went Cyberbeast even though the delivery times are longer. $1k deposit.

I checked at least 4 times today. So it just happened!

Likewise last night! Was able to order the AWD. Res RN1127476XX in Utah

Maybe I’m crack smoking but I thought it said deliver Dec-Jan…. Probably saw it incorrectly.

 

[cvalue13]

That model 3 ramp was in 2018. I would think that they’ve improved their ability to ramp up since then.

I hear that a lot

But I think there’s a distinction to be made here.

To the extent they’ve “learned how to ramp” since 2018, those learnings will largely come in handy for things Tesla isn’t doing right now in this stage of the ramp.

In this early stage of the ramp, they’re figuring out how to make an almost entirely novel production line get off the ground, building a vehicle using many entirely novel materials, tooling, parts, construction processes, etc.

These early ramp growing pains is what Musk referred to when he said he wants to “temper expectations" and that Tesla "dug our own grave with the Cybertruck."

"I do want to emphasize that there will be enormous challenges in reaching volume production with the Cybertruck and then making the Cybertruck cashflow positive—this is simply normal”

Until they dial in this new type of line, and novel vehicle build, anything they’d “learned since 2018” is more than offset by what they’re learning for the first time, right now.

But after they’ve dialed in this new line/vehicle, what they’ve learned since 2018 will kick in.

Even then, though, people keep expecting “what they’ve learned” to mean “more, faster, for customers.”

What they’ve learned can instead just mean “cheaper, smarter for Tesla corporate.”

Case in point: for the ~first time with the CT, they’re not just doing a couple of hundred “Signature Edition” builds in early ramp offered only to insiders for a premium, they appear to be doing a couple thousand “Foundation Edition” units available to early res holders, which has all kinds of benefits to Tesla corporate during this bottom lef of the production S-curve.


And so, while @Jhodgesatmb ’s initial reply (now replaced) seemed pithy and irritated, it was a genuine question as to whether someone reasonably thinks that building a couple thousand units in this bottom leg of the s-curve is very slow, when Tesla is currently redefining how production lines and vehicles are constructed

 

[cvalue13]

If they hit 250 per week by January 1st, then at a Flat line in production they would build 3,000 Cybertrucks (250/week x 12) by the end of March (and that is with production starting in January and not now).

yes “if flat line production” - but that is an unreasonable “if”

Elon said (and Tesla has historically had) exponential growth, so over some span of time we can expect production to double.

Elon has not said that. Nor has Tesla historically demonstrated that, ever

Elon has made very clear that not only will the CT ramp be an S-curve (which is not exponential, in this bottom leg), he’s also made clear that with the CT the bottom leg of that S-curve will be particularly acute given the CT context of a new production line and vehicle design and manufacturing.

To redundantly quote myself in back-to-back posts:

These early ramp growing pains is what Musk referred to when he said he wants to “temper expectations" and that Tesla "dug our own grave with the Cybertruck."

"I do want to emphasize that there will be enormous challenges in reaching volume production with the Cybertruck and then making the Cybertruck cashflow positive—this is simply normal”

Meanwhile, mitigating for Tesla corporate (and customers) this slow bottom leg of the S-curve is the entire point of this extended “Foundation Edition” approach.

From both a financials and optics perspective, they are somewhat separating what they are currently building/selling right now from actually having “started production.”


From an auto manufacturing perspective, these guys at GFTX are currently doing brain surgery on the moon.

From an auto corporate perspective, the management are meanwhile playing a marketing and financial balance sheet game of three shells and a pea. They’re exclaiming towards the public that production and deliveries have begun, while only “producing” and “delivering” what help them avoid being treated by regulators and accountants as though either have really kicked off.

The unfortunate consequence is that corporate’s shell game leaves customers like you irritated.

While back in GFTX on the line floor, in this most critical and patience-demanding phase of the brain surgery on the moon, some super-fans are standing around them yelling into their ears “faster, faster, have you learned nothing!?”

 

[Amuma]

Dual motor is January to March
trimotor is mid to late 2024

The question is, does this affect existing foundation orders, or will the new timelines only apply to new orders?

Newer confirmed orders. The system updates based on expected output at time you placed the order.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

yes “if flat line production” - but that is an unreasonable “if”




Elon has not said that. Nor has Tesla historically demonstrated that, ever

Elon has made very clear that not only will the CT ramp be an S-curve (which is not exponential, in this bottom leg), he’s also made clear that with the CT the bottom leg of that S-curve will be particularly acute given the CT context of a new production line and vehicle design and manufacturing.

To redundantly quote myself in back-to-back posts:




Meanwhile, mitigating for Tesla corporate (and customers) this slow bottom leg of the S-curve is the entire point of this extended “Foundation Edition” approach.

From both a financials and optics perspective, they are somewhat separating what they are currently building/selling right now from actually having “started production.”


From an auto manufacturing perspective, these guys at GFTX are currently doing brain surgery on the moon.

From an auto corporate perspective, the management are meanwhile playing a marketing and financial balance sheet game of three shells and a pea. They’re exclaiming towards the public that production and deliveries have begun, while only “producing” and “delivering” what help them avoid being treated by regulators and accountants as though either have really kicked off.

The unfortunate consequence is that corporate’s shell game leaves customers like you irritated.

While back in GFTX on the line floor, in this most critical and patience-demanding phase of the brain surgery on the moon, some super-fans are standing around them yelling into their ears “faster, faster, have you learned nothing!?”

He definitely said what you said - just last week. In the 2022 4th quarter earnings report he said this: “I always try to downplay the start of production,” Musk said. “It increases exponentially, but it is very slow at first.”.

https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/25/23571806/tesla-cybertruck-volume-production-delay-2024-q4-2022

So Elon definitely said that Cybertruck production would start slow but that it would ramp exponentially. I am not sure that the two statements are necessarily contradictory.

I only mentioned ‘flat’ production because, if they get to 250/week early in January, it would be 3,000 by the end of March, which is more than you said. Flat would not be slow growth, it would be no growth. I am not here to argue, no matter what you think; only to say that I think 2,500 in the first quarter would be slow and that I hope for more in a very, very selfish way.

 

[dcrdanielr]

Likewise last night! Was able to order the AWD. Res RN1127476XX in Utah

Maybe I’m crack smoking but I thought it said deliver Dec-Jan…. Probably saw it incorrectly.

Bro how. I’m in Utah and I’m 112744. Ughhhhh

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