papajamaliciousness

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WOW you went WAY out in the woods...

the question was why would it be years... the answer is simple it will prolly be Several years before cybertrucks are built thare are not fulfilling a reservation.

to my knowledge NO vehicle has EVER had this kind of demand prior to any real production.
I understood what you meant. My point is that just because the former Ford buyers are in a Tesla line rather than driving Tesla Cybertrucks it doesn't matter, they are still not buying Fords.
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CYBRSMTH

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Via Electrek

Ford CEO Jim Farley dismissed Tesla Cybertruck as “a cool high-end product parked in front of a hotel” rather than “a truck for real people.”

Will he eat his words?

During an interview with CNBC, Farley appeared to want to distance Ford from Tesla a bit after his company agreed to adopt Tesla’s NACS connector.

He described the move as an “opportunistic” one to increase access to charging for Ford customers, but he claimed that Ford’s charging network was already extensive before that.

The CEO was asked about the imminent launch of the Tesla Cybertruck and he seemed unimpressed.

Farley said about the Cybertruck:

Those are harsh words for Tesla’s first offering in the important and highly profitable pickup market in the US.
Sounds to me like Jim Farley and Ford are feeling threatened. Usually you don’t insult your competition unless you’re trying to prove something (Tesla with the Cybertruck back in 2019) or you’re scared. Ford debuted the Lightning on May 19, 2021, and deliveries to customers began in May 2022. So far most people are pleased with it, but the range is really low (240 miles per charge) and even worse when towing (as is the case with most EVs).

IF the Cybertruck can live up to its range, hauling, towing, and price promises it could definitely take away some of the OEM’s traditional pickup sales. Personally, I think Tesla will fulfill some of the aforementioned promises, but 2019 was 4 years ago and a lot has changed In the EV industry. Here’s what I think:

Range: 400+ miles per charge
Hauling: No change, but range will take a hit (30%)
Towing: No change, but range will take a hit (50%)
Price: $100K+ for tri motor ($80K for dual motor years later)

I think Tesla will make the tri-motor first and then work its way down to the dual motor. Production will be limited per usual. Elon said the Cybertruck is hard to make.
 

rudedawg78

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Sounds to me like Jim Farley and Ford are feeling threatened. Usually you don’t insult your competition unless you’re trying to prove something (Tesla with the Cybertruck back in 2019) or you’re scared. Ford debuted the Lightning on May 19, 2021, and deliveries to customers began in May 2022. So far most people are pleased with it, but the range is really low (240 miles per charge) and even worse when towing (as is the case with most EVs).

IF the Cybertruck can live up to its range, hauling, towing, and price promises it could definitely take away some of the OEM’s traditional pickup sales. Personally, I think Tesla will fulfill some of the aforementioned promises, but 2019 was 4 years ago and a lot has changed In the EV industry. Here’s what I think:

Range: 400+ miles per charge
Hauling: No change, but range will take a hit (30%)
Towing: No change, but range will take a hit (50%)
Price: $100K+ for tri motor ($80K for dual motor years later)

I think Tesla will make the tri-motor first and then work its way down to the dual motor. Production will be limited per usual. Elon said the Cybertruck is hard to make.


Once again, the announcement price for the Tri Motor Cybertruck was $69,900 which claimed 500+ miles of range. And you are thinking that it will have 400+ miles of range and be $100K, which is a 43% INCREASE from the announcement price.

I really don't understand why so many people think the Cybertruck price will go up that high even with lower specs than initially advertised (e.g., range).

Come on, man.
 

CYBRSMTH

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I’m expecting the worst and hoping for the best. Even Elon was trying to dial back expectations at the last earnings call/event. He wants to pack this thing with every bell and whistle imaginable in order to blow the competition away. Think Hummer EV, not Ford F-150 Lightning. The initial run and first couple of years of the Cybertruck are going to be limited and expensive.

I think initially Tesla and Co. thought making a stainless steel exoskeleton vehicle would be cheaper (ie no paint), but the reality is it’s been delayed for 4 years because of all the new processes they had to create to make it a reality. They need to make their money back from all of the R&D, giga presses, lines, etc. The same thing has happened to ALL of Tesla’s other models, so to expect something different would be ludicrous ;)

At first it will be a halo vehicle (pun intended) for Tesla and drive people toward purchasing their more affordable vehicles. Costs will come down eventually, but the single motor variant will get dropped as it won’t be able to perform like the other models (no rear steering, limited range, etc.)

Tesla will NOT sell multiple variants of the Cybertruck at the same time. The more affordable models would cannibalize the higher-end ones. We’ve already seen this with the drop in sales of the Model S and X in favor of the more affordable 3 and Y.
 

HaulingAss

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I’m expecting the worst and hoping for the best. Even Elon was trying to dial back expectations at the last earnings call/event. He wants to pack this thing with every bell and whistle imaginable in order to blow the competition away. Think Hummer EV, not Ford F-150 Lightning. The initial run and first couple of years of the Cybertruck are going to be limited and expensive.

I think initially Tesla and Co. thought making a stainless steel exoskeleton vehicle would be cheaper (ie no paint), but the reality is it’s been delayed for 4 years because of all the new processes they had to create to make it a reality. They need to make their money back from all of the R&D, giga presses, lines, etc. The same thing has happened to ALL of Tesla’s other models, so to expect something different would be ludicrous ;)

At first it will be a halo vehicle (pun intended) for Tesla and drive people toward purchasing their more affordable vehicles. Costs will come down eventually, but the single motor variant will get dropped as it won’t be able to perform like the other models (no rear steering, limited range, etc.)

Tesla will NOT sell multiple variants of the Cybertruck at the same time. The more affordable models would cannibalize the higher-end ones. We’ve already seen this with the drop in sales of the Model S and X in favor of the more affordable 3 and Y.
So are you going to change your Username when the configurator is up and all your predictions turn out to be wrong as wrong could be?

I've never seen so much BS in one post.
 


Crissa

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...but the reality is it’s been delayed for 4 years because of..
No, the Cybertruck hasn't been delayed four years. Four years ago we didn't even know what the Cybertruck would be named, let alone look like. Currently, the Cybertruck is one year and seven months late. It is currently scheduled to be one year and ten months late.

-Crissa
 

Ogre

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No, the Cybertruck hasn't been delayed four years. Four years ago we didn't even know what the Cybertruck would be named, let alone look like. Currently, the Cybertruck is one year and seven months late. It is currently scheduled to be one year and ten months late.

-Crissa
Math is hard. Dates are even harder. Facts…. 🤷‍♂️

Easy to see the mistake.
 

Ogre

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Once again, the announcement price for the Tri Motor Cybertruck was $69,900 which claimed 500+ miles of range. And you are thinking that it will have 400+ miles of range and be $100K, which is a 43% INCREASE from the announcement price.

I really don't understand why so many people think the Cybertruck price will go up that high even with lower specs than initially advertised (e.g., range).

Come on, man.
IRA manufacturing incentives have cut $45/ KWH of Teslas production costs. That’s about $9,000 off a 200 kWh pack.

Leaves lots of room for Tesla to hit their launch pricing goals.
 

rudedawg78

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IRA manufacturing incentives have cut $45/ KWH of Teslas production costs. That’s about $9,000 off a 200 kWh pack.

Leaves lots of room for Tesla to hit their launch pricing goals.
And just think of how much more respect Tesla will earn when they still meet their targeted consumer price. Even Elon said it was very hard to make it affordable... But, he didn't say it was impossible, only for the competitors. :)

$100K is far from affordable and it is really hard for me to believe that nonsense. I will eat crow if I need to, but instead I think I will have a Filet Mignon when the price/specs are announced. 🥩
 

Challeco

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Trucks have come along in the past 52 years

20mpg is far from any fantasy
ummm... really?! No. Yes, they have become computer controlled, fuel injected; TBI, MPFI, and direct injection. Roller cams with hydraulic roller lifters or dual overhead cams without pushrods. There have been improvements with high volume and high pressure fuel pumps, Variable valve timing, selective combustion, and mainstream use of turbos and superchargers. Further, the automatic transmissions have become much more electronically controlled.

However, the Government standards for trucks have not kept up with passenger vehicles. The mandates still allow trucks to be much less efficient. So, even if... IF you have a EPA rating of up to 20mpg, the real world efficiency of a truck, any I.C.E. truck is going to land around 12mpg. Even diesel engine trucks are marketed sacrificing MPG for Horsepower and Torque. My brother's Tundra is a case in point. He bought it to haul his 38 foot trailer. He was so proud of its rated mpg until he started towing. Even with the computer management his efficiency went down to 8mpg and back up to 11 with premium fuel. He even tried turning off his engine at stop lights. The only improvement was the higher priced fuel. My 1971 FE390 4bbl carbureted, electronic ignition V8 actually betters his economy. Due in most part to the higher compression, larger displacement cylinders and heavier reciprocating mass. My truck gets 10 to 12 mpg empty and 10 to 12 mpg with over 2000 pounds of grain in the bed through the mountains.

So, no. 20mpg in any truck that is used for anything except freeway commuting is a fantasy. You can't haul with one and keep the efficiency. You can't drive in traffic and keep the efficiency. You certainly can't tow and keep the efficiency.

Before you choose to reply, I will let you in on something. I rebuild and modify cars for fun. I haven't shied away from working on any rig that has needed my help. Not the ones from the 1960s and not the ones from the 2020s. The only ones I haven't worked on are Tesla's. Prius? check. Ford Hybrids? I've worked on them. Nissan hybrids? Yup. Even Chevy, no matter how much I loathe that company, I've had my hands and my tools all over their innards.
 


cvalue13

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if... IF you have a EPA rating of up to 20mpg, the real world efficiency of a truck, any I.C.E. truck is going to land around 12mpg.
Either we’re talking past each other somewhere, or you’re stroking out and should seek med attention

My ‘18 F150, 4x4, SCREW EPA: 19/24/21, I hit 20 average all day long driving like I mean it

And here’s a EcoBoost mileage thread from back in 2019 with a dozen people reporting real world figures better than mine

If it were worth the time (it’s not) ai could show you the same regarding each other manufacturers fuel-conscious offerings (eg not V8 Hemi’s).

And regardless, this conversation was focused on drivers with unusually high fuel bills due to high percentages of Hwy miles in commutes.

My ‘18 easily got 23mph real world in hwy driving, and the thread linked above have others with the same or better.


You can't haul with one and keep the efficiency. You can't drive in traffic and keep the efficiency. You certainly can't tow and keep the efficiency.
Of course not. That wasn’t the discussion at hand.

Nor is that point any different for a BEV truck

At the end of the day, this is a worthless birdwalk away from the point that was being made:

Yes, people factor in fuel savings when buying a BEV. But no, for anyone who understands money, that factor alone is not sufficient to cause people considering changing vehicles to flock to buying brand new BEV trucks, because there are lower all-in cost options available (eg buying used, deciding not to change vehicles due to cost afterall, etc.)

And if you instead want to drill down to the sub-group that has decided to buy a new truck, who are considering an ICE vs BEV alternative their decision will be based primarily on the headline purchase price comparison between similarly equipped vehicles.

In this interest rate environment, deltas in loan principle can quickly eat into any otherwise obvious operational cost advantage of BEVs.

Which is why people around here have been banging the following gong: to have any feel for the CTs penetration into the broader ICE truck market, you first have to know MSRP

If the CT has a ~$40K option and in fact produces a lot of this variant, the new-buy ICE truck market will get eaten into considerably, and the overall ICE truck market (eg including used) somewhat

If instead for the near/medium term, the CT has only a $70K variant readily available, it will make very little dent in overall new-buy ICE truck marker, and near zero in overall ICE truck market (eg including used)

To this last point, someone responded fuel savings will fix that. They’re wrong.
 

RandyS

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What really gripes me about Farley's statement is the "I" factor. "I build trucks"...No, you don't. It takes a literal large team of people that design, build and sell your trucks. You could have said "Ford builds trucks" or "My team build trucks", but this whole "I" thing is a major turnoff. Oh well, maybe it's just me...A lost opportunity for a leader of a large organization to give some credit to the people that work for him/her...
 
 




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