4680 Battery Production Progress

[tidmutt]

Will they then have 2 different Model Ys, one with 2 gigacastings and 4680 cells and one with 1 gigacasting and 2170 cells?

It doesn't seem like there is any other way... Elon signaled that Berlin and Austin will get 4680s and Fremont and Shanghai will continue as they are until the tech is proven before being upgraded. Sadly I think that means they will reduce the number of cells in the 4680 Model Ys to give a similar range to the existing Model Ys. Or they could make just Performance Y's with 4680s at first, assuming there is sufficient sales volumes. Maybe make a Plaid Model Y or something. If I had to bet, I'd guess they will just match the range of existing Ys.

A Plaid Y with 500 miles of range, 0-60 in 2.5s etc. would be seriously cool... seems unlikely though. Boo!

Sponsored

 

[Ogre]

I would... it would bother me, I would try to get the 4680s if I could, but if I really needed a car, then of course, I'd still get the 2170 Y.

We don't really know all the benefits but we do know it will most likely have better thermal characteristics which may mean longer life, faster charging. It will also contribute less mass to the overall vehicle for a given amount of energy (not the most eloquent way to describe it I know). Combined with front and rear castings we're looking at how much weight savings? A couple of hundred pounds? Aside from that, the higher cycle life, and faster charge times are the really interesting enhancements.

If I was able to wait, I would definitely wait for the 4680 Model Y, but that's just me.

The gamble is at this point if you’re shooting for a model Y with the 4680 cells there’s a good chance they’re not gonna be that much ahead of the cyber truck.

Obviously if your reservation number 1,500,000 you’ll probably get the model Y a couple years quicker. But if you’re in the first couple hundred thousand in the cyber trucks not that far behind

 

[tidmutt]

The gamble is at this point if you’re shooting for a model Y with the 4680 cells there’s a good chance they’re not gonna be that much ahead of the cyber truck.

For sure. I'm waiting for the CT anyway, it's just a hypothetical for me. My partner is considering a Y though as his M3 lease is ending and he's over his mileage. Tesla confirmed they have no intention of helping him into a replacement vehicle (which is fair enough) so it's looking like it might actually be cheaper to buy a Y and not drive the M3 and just hand it in when it's done. So a Model Y might be in our near future, it will have to be 2170 based of course and the other problem is there are none available anyway....

 

[Ogre]

For sure. I'm waiting for the CT anyway, it's just a hypothetical for me. My partner is considering a Y though as his M3 lease is ending and he's over his mileage. Tesla confirmed they have no intention of helping him into a replacement vehicle (which is fair enough) so it's looking like it might actually be cheaper to buy a Y and not drive the M3 and just hand it in when it's done. So a Model Y might be in our near future, it will have to be 2170 based of course and the other problem is there are none available anyway....

Lots of people have a long haul ahead waiting on the Cybertruck. I’m hoping… fingers crossed… for summer 2023 for me. Model Y would be a year ahead. If you are in the 200k+ club you’ll be waiting at least until mid 2024. I sure hope Tesla just keeps scaling up production so the 1m+ folks can see their trucks before the cows come home.

 

[Crissa]

Maybe? They are only have enough cells for 160k Model Ys for the whole year. Seems like production will be slow at first. Maybe since both lines will have slow starts it’ll work out?

That's probably their banked cells. How many cells will Austin make next year in its ramp?

-Crissa

 

[firsttruck]

This afternoon (Oct 9) in Berlin, Elon said until Berlin battery factory was ready that Berlin made Model Y would start production in Dec 2021 using cells from CATL in China.

So seems like Berlin made Model Y will use LFP cells.

Will CATL have 4680 LFP cell ready in Dec 2021?

Earlier today Elon talked about Berlin made Model Y using structural battery pack.

What is unclear is if both of those ( structural battery pack + CATL 4680 LFP cells) will happen together until Berlin battery factory is ready.

 

[Ogre]

This afternoon (Oct 9) in Berlin, Elon said until Berlin battery factory was ready that Berlin made Model Y would start production in Dec 2021 using cells from CATL in China.

So seems like Berlin made Model Y will use LFP cells.

Will CATL have 4680 LFP cell ready in Dec 2021?

Earlier today Elon talked about Berlin made Model Y using structural battery pack.

What is unclear is if both of those ( structural battery pack + CATL 4680 LFP cells) will happen together until Berlin battery factory is ready.

Which more or less confirms that all Fremont 4680 production will go to Texas Model Y production.

I missed it before, but apparently Musk did say 4680 cell production will be online in Texas next year.

 

[Cyberman]

would you accept CT with 2170 batteries

Hell no, but I would accept a 9720 Hyper battery

 

[jerhenderson]

if I were buying a MY and told it would be 4-6 months out, I would be very unhappy if it had 2170's......

if the range was the same, why would you care?

 

[jerhenderson]

Hell no, but I would accept a 9720 Hyper battery

As long as I had my 500 miles range I don't care.

 

[swengl]

It's more than range, though. The charging rate of the 4680 is on par (or better?) than the 2170, the lifespan of the 4680 should exceed the 2170, and the rigidity of the structural battery will offer greater experience (ride and accident protection) [just to name a few]. For me, that's why I would wait.

 

[tidmutt]

Lots of people have a long haul ahead waiting on the Cybertruck. I’m hoping… fingers crossed… for summer 2023 for me. Model Y would be a year ahead. If you are in the 200k+ club you’ll be waiting at least until mid 2024. I sure hope Tesla just keeps scaling up production so the 1m+ folks can see their trucks before the cows come home.

Could be although it's going to depend on the rate at which those first 200K preorders convert. Are those who ordered sooner more likely to convert? I'm not sure, perhaps. Also, it's going to depend on which model they produce initially. I ordered on the third day after the announcement, the calculator put me at around 200K. The latest rumor I've heard is some low volume production will begin first half of 2023 so I agree, summer 2023 if you have a low reservation number might be possible. I would love to be able to pick up the truck in Oct 2023 around my son's birthday and do a factory tour and road trip with him, but more likely it's going to be 2024. On the positive side if it's summer 2024 he'll be off school so easier to do the trip.

 

[happy intruder]

if the range was the same, why would you care?

the 4680 long term is a better battery......

 

[Ogre]

Could be although it's going to depend on the rate at which those first 200K preorders convert. Are those who ordered sooner more likely to convert? I'm not sure, perhaps. Also, it's going to depend on which model they produce initially. I ordered on the third day after the announcement, the calculator put me at around 200K. The latest rumor I've heard is some low volume production will begin first half of 2023 so I agree, summer 2023 if you have a low reservation number might be possible. I would love to be able to pick up the truck in Oct 2023 around my son's birthday and do a factory tour and road trip with him, but more likely it's going to be 2024. On the positive side if it's summer 2024 he'll be off school so easier to do the trip.

I expect Cybertruck production to look very much like Model 3/Y production. 15-20k in the first quarter of production, 35-40k second quarter, etc until they get up to the full 60-70k production rate sometime around a year after production start. Sounds like production starts “2022”. Likely deep in Q4 of 2022, but maybe sooner.

Musk said at the shareholder meeting that 4680 cell production should reach “high level production” in Texas during 2022. Which is the big key missing.

Sponsored