4680 Battery Production Progress

[Jhodgesatmb]

By end of year.

There was definitely not a ton of definiteness to the Model Y/ 4680 stuff though. It sounded like they were planning on ramping with 4680 and that they were planning on starting production by year end in Austin. But it wasn’t clear if there would be some with 2170s or they would start right off with 4680s. I kind of assumed it but a few people thought it was less clear.

Will they then have 2 different Model Ys, one with 2 gigacastings and 4680 cells and one with 1 gigacasting and 2170 cells?

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[happy intruder]

By end of year.

There was definitely not a ton of definiteness to the Model Y/ 4680 stuff though. It sounded like they were planning on ramping with 4680 and that they were planning on starting production by year end in Austin. But it wasn’t clear if there would be some with 2170s or they would start right off with 4680s. I kind of assumed it but a few people thought it was less clear.

if I were buying a MY and told it would be 4-6 months out, I would be very unhappy if it had 2170's......

 

[fritter63]

Will they then have 2 different Model Ys, one with 2 gigacastings and 4680 cells and one with 1 gigacasting and 2170 cells?

[David Attenborough] Otherwise known as the "greater" and "lesser" Model Ys.

Habitat range for the lesser will be mostly contained to Northern California, while the greater is likely to be found in all 50 states, with concentrations in Texas.

Subspecies can be identified by a lack of asymmetric panel gaps on the greater, with a definite higher occurrence of road noise while observing the lesser as it travels past you. Best watching for enthusiasts should occur on highway overpasses with a good view in both directions.
[/David Attenborough]

 

[anionic1]

I would be excited if it was more than someone saying "70-80% yield" and no backup from Tesla on it. In fact, I think the only thing I would believe, and then get excited about, would be seeing a 4680-based vehicle on the road, even a test car, or if Elon actually said "here is one" or "the factory will be operational in November" or some such. I try not to get excited over something that doesn't exist, but I do worry ...

I watched the annual report from Tesla yesterday and he mentioned that their battery plant near Fremont is now producing 4860 cells and that it would have the capacity to produce enough cells for all the Model Ys coming out of Texas. I could be mistaken here but I believe that is what he said. It will be really interesting to see if the Ys that start coming out of Texas have the 2170s or the 4860s. Its a completely different car between the frame design and unibody design so I imagine that they don't want to start with one type of production and switch to another.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I watched the annual report from Tesla yesterday and he mentioned that their battery plant near Fremont is now producing 4860 cells and that it would have the capacity to produce enough cells for all the Model Ys coming out of Texas. I could be mistaken here but I believe that is what he said. It will be really interesting to see if the Ys that start coming out of Texas have the 2170s or the 4860s. Its a completely different car between the frame design and unibody design so I imagine that they don't want to start with one type of production and switch to another.

Right. Part of me was thinking that they might try putting 2170s into a structural pack to keep things consistent but your reasoning makes sense. So the guess is that they will hold off on Model Y production until they get this squared away, and that lends credence to the 'greater, lesser species' concept.

 

[Ogre]

if I were buying a MY and told it would be 4-6 months out, I would be very unhappy if it had 2170's......

Most people won’t know and will never notice the difference.

Might be a bit lighter and/ or have a little better range.

I would prefer the 4680 Model Y, but I’m not sweating the fact that mine has the 2170 cells either.

 

[Ogre]

From battery day he said the CT (he didn’t specify a trim so assume all trims) would use nickel cells. So until he says otherwise that is my expectation.

Makes sense for the weight down on these big batteries.

 

[happy intruder]

Most people won’t know and will never notice the difference.

Might be a bit lighter and/ or have a little better range.

I would prefer the 4680 Model Y, but I’m not sweating the fact that mine has the 2170 cells either.

ok......I'll sell you a diamond that is E, VVS1 but is really H,V1......its only a diamond, no-one will ever really notice......a diamond is a diamond, right?

most people are following the progress of Tesla and see or hear what's going on........I think they are all interested in range and that comes as you said with the 4680's....

 

[JBee]

Most people won’t know and will never notice the difference.

Might be a bit lighter and/ or have a little better range.

I would prefer the 4680 Model Y, but I’m not sweating the fact that mine has the 2170 cells either.

I'd imagine there will be a significant weight benefit as well as a stiffer body/castings which is better for range, handling and performance. The result should also be cheaper.

Am I trying to talk myself into getting a MY to bridge me over in the states until CT? Yup.

 

[CyberGus]

Also notable:

Musk confirmed 2 chemistries for batteries going forward. Iron (aka LFP) and Nickel. Nickel is for Long Range vehicles, Iron for shorter range. Not clear where the cutoff is. Presumably that means tri-motor is definitely going to be Nickel. Maybe Dual and Single will be Iron? Wasn't clean on that.

Elon signaled his intentions at Battery Day:

 

[Ogre]

ok......I'll sell you a diamond that is E, VVS1 but is really H,V1......its only a diamond, no-one will ever really notice......a diamond is a diamond, right?

most people are following the progress of Tesla and see or hear what's going on........I think they are all interested in range and that comes as you said with the 4680's....

The mainstream media does a complete crap job of covering Tesla and bodges even the simplest concepts. Most likely if Car and Driver or CNN bothers to cover the new Texas factory and the new model they will brush all the changes under the table as cost saving measures.

If Tesla updates the range or the performance significantly, people will notice. Otherwise it will be a non-event much like most of Tesla‘s incremental upgrades are.

 

[Crissa]

ok......I'll sell you a diamond that is E, VVS1 but is really H,V1......its only a diamond, no-one will ever really notice......a diamond is a diamond, right?

But that's not how this will work. This isn't a diamond, where the cost is based on these arbitrary stats. It's just a battery pack, that's designed to handle about the same specs.

-Crissa

 

[tidmutt]

Boom.

In the shareholders meeting Musk confirmed 4680 production is starting in Fremont with 10GB capacity. Enough to start Model Y production in Texas with the new cells.

Huge Huge Huge relief. Texas and Berlin 4680 production should follow as fast as they can finish the facilities.

This is me in Rockville park... the bomb just dropped in Fremont.

That's some hairy tits!

 

[Ogre]

Will they then have 2 different Model Ys, one with 2 gigacastings and 4680 cells and one with 1 gigacasting and 2170 cells?

Maybe? They are only have enough cells for 160k Model Ys for the whole year. Seems like production will be slow at first. Maybe since both lines will have slow starts it’ll work out?

 

[tidmutt]

Most people won’t know and will never notice the difference.

Might be a bit lighter and/ or have a little better range.

I would prefer the 4680 Model Y, but I’m not sweating the fact that mine has the 2170 cells either.

I would... it would bother me, I would try to get the 4680s if I could, but if I really needed a car, then of course, I'd still get the 2170 Y.

We don't really know all the benefits but we do know it will most likely have better thermal characteristics which may mean longer life, faster charging. It will also contribute less mass to the overall vehicle for a given amount of energy (not the most eloquent way to describe it I know). Combined with front and rear castings we're looking at how much weight savings? A couple of hundred pounds? Aside from that, the higher cycle life, and faster charge times are the really interesting enhancements.

If I was able to wait, I would definitely wait for the 4680 Model Y, but that's just me.

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