7/19 CT Production Rumors

John K

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They could probably sell up to 2x as many Y with the packs as Cybertruck... but the Cybertruck is more of a media coup.

🤷🏼‍♀️

-Crissa
That is negative speech. Be more positive, if they build the CT, and deliver mine, they will get a net positive score from me.
 

Diehard

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That makes total sense because Elves are just too busy around Christmas with their other job to work on CT assembly line and Rudolph can only deliver CTs until November.
 
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Klaxon

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I would start with champagne.
After that everything become clear
 
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tidmutt

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Getting the Cybertruck out the door before Ford and Chevy would be a huge win. (Rivian seems unlikely). Getting another Model Y production line started up is nice, but not nearly as important.

So if they are constrained on a part which is required for both the Y and the Cybertruck, I think the Cybertruck will likely take priority. (because they know I'm waiting on it damn it) The most likely culprit would be the battery supply.

If supply of 4860 cells is really tight, I think they would release the Cybertruck first. Big competitive advantage there.

Obviously if they have plenty of supply, no reason to not get the Y out there!
How come you call them 4860 instead of 4680?

I would like to see the CT produced first of course, although the Model Y performance with castings and 4680s are a close second for me. Which do we think Tesla will ultimately sell in more volume though? The CT or the Y?

From a marketing, mind-share perspective though, the CT would be huge. A massive PR win for Tesla. This awesome. from the future truck that so many have said was vaporware and couldn't exist, rolling off the assembly line and driving around on streets would generate so much buzz. A V2 of the Model Y would seem boring in comparison although a Model Y with faster charging, maybe longer range, higher cycle life, substantially lower weight and cost is arguably a bigger deal for the global automotive industry.

I kind of wish I could buy both.

I may get my wish in that my partner is likely going to swap the Model 3 for a Model Y in another 1.5 years or so.
 

tmeyer3

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How come you call them 4860 instead of 4680?

I would like to see the CT produced first of course, although the Model Y performance with castings and 4680s are a close second for me. Which do we think Tesla will ultimately sell in more volume though? The CT or the Y?

From a marketing, mind-share perspective though, the CT would be huge. A massive PR win for Tesla. This awesome. from the future truck that so many have said was vaporware and couldn't exist, rolling off the assembly line and driving around on streets would generate so much buzz. A V2 of the Model Y would seem boring in comparison although a Model Y with faster charging, maybe longer range, higher cycle life, substantially lower weight and cost is arguably a bigger deal for the global automotive industry.

I kind of wish I could buy both.

I may get my wish in that my partner is likely going to swap the Model 3 for a Model Y in another 1.5 years or so.
I think CT will be huge, totally.

But one good reason to delay the model Y in favor of the CT is to ramp up model 3 4680 refresh also. The model 3 bounced back after model Y release much harder than anyone could have predicted. Yeah, there was a sizeable dip as predicted, but WOW! My unlikely-as-anything-else prediction is that they may refresh model 3 with the 4680s concurrently with the Y if they focus on the CT now and take a little more time to get their ducks in a row. As opposed to refreshing the Y, then starting CT production, then starting on the 3 at some later date. Makes sense to me.
1626800108857.png

Source: https://cleantechnica.com/2021/07/0...l-s-model-x-sales-estimates-1st-half-of-2021/
 

Ogre

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How come you call them 4860 instead of 4680?
Pick any too:

- Numbers are hard.
- Dislexyc?
- I'm not very bright.

Which do we think Tesla will ultimately sell in more volume though? The CT or the Y?
The Y seems like the bigger seller. At least I hope so. I'd far prefer there were 20m Ys on the road than everyone banging around in giant trucks.

From a marketing, mind-share perspective though, the CT would be huge. A massive PR win for Tesla. This awesome. from the future truck that so many have said was vaporware and couldn't exist, rolling off the assembly line and driving around on streets would generate so much buzz. A V2 of the Model Y would seem boring in comparison although a Model Y with faster charging, maybe longer range, higher cycle life, substantially lower weight and cost is arguably a bigger deal for the global automotive industry.

I kind of wish I could buy both.
Makes me want to sell my current Y so I can get the next generation one!!

I think launch timing is more important with the Cybertruck. Model Y is huge too, funny that it's more or less invisible to the press, but while Ford is struggling to crank out 50k Mach-Es with worse range than the currently shipping Model Y, Tesla is rapidly approaching launch of the next gen with potentially even longer range. (plus lighter, better handling, etc)
 

tidmutt

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Pick any too:

- Numbers are hard.
- Dislexyc?
- I'm not very bright.



The Y seems like the bigger seller. At least I hope so. I'd far prefer there were 20m Ys on the road than everyone banging around in giant trucks.


Makes me want to sell my current Y so I can get the next generation one!!

I think launch timing is more important with the Cybertruck. Model Y is huge too, funny that it's more or less invisible to the press, but while Ford is struggling to crank out 50k Mach-Es with worse range than the currently shipping Model Y, Tesla is rapidly approaching launch of the next gen with potentially even longer range. (plus lighter, better handling, etc)
Lol - No worries, I actually googled it case there was some argument that 4860 was more correct or something. LMAO

That's kind of where I was coming from... The Y is more important IMO, as much as I love the truck. The Model 2 (or whatever) is even more important in terms of moving the world to more sustainable transportation.

I just want to see a 4680 based vehicle in volume production, I want those cells to prove themselves. Will help put the naysayers out of business and solidify EVs dominance.

Honestly, I'm quite excited for Model Y and 3 built with the castings and structural battery pack. It sounds like it will be a really compelling vehicle.
 

tidmutt

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I think CT will be huge, totally.

But one good reason to delay the model Y in favor of the CT is to ramp up model 3 4680 refresh also. The model 3 bounced back after model Y release much harder than anyone could have predicted. Yeah, there was a sizeable dip as predicted, but WOW! My unlikely-as-anything-else prediction is that they may refresh model 3 with the 4680s concurrently with the Y if they focus on the CT now and take a little more time to get their ducks in a row. As opposed to refreshing the Y, then starting CT production, then starting on the 3 at some later date. Makes sense to me.
1626800108857.png

Source: https://cleantechnica.com/2021/07/0...l-s-model-x-sales-estimates-1st-half-of-2021/
Yeah, I've noticed Model 3 was not that impacted by the Y.

A 4680 model 3 would be really interesting too.

My pet wish is for Tesla to differentiate the Performance a bit more... in both the Y and 3. Something akin to the Audi S or RS models. Slightly different seats, some other "go fast" bits in the interior, plus some exterior tweaks. The Y with the turbine wheels looks pretty awesome, a few more subtle tweaks and some Audi RS-esq seats would be awesome.

I know it's not Tesla's thing...

A bit like this...

1626812879146.png
 

Ogre

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I just want to see a 4680 based vehicle in volume production, I want those cells to prove themselves. Will help put the naysayers out of business and solidify EVs dominance.

Honestly, I'm quite excited for Model Y and 3 built with the castings and structural battery pack. It sounds like it will be a really compelling vehicle.
Likewise.

If what I've seen and heard about the 4860 + structural pack is even approximately true, the weight/ power density benefits will be huge.

There is a good chance the tri-motor Cybertruck is going to weigh less than the F150 Lightning with less than half the range. That would be a huge win.
 

Ogre

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My pet wish is for Tesla to differentiate the Performance a bit more... in both the Y and 3.
Not saying it won't happen, but right now Tesla's magic formula seems to be making exactly the same car over and over. Since they make their own seats, that would add a lot more complexity (and cost)
 
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