@SawyerMerrit discussed new CyberTruck model lineup: base, mid, tri, quad, plaid

[anionic1]

Why would you choose such weird numbers?

Especially when we straight up have the cost of goods sold (cogs) for every quarter last year:




It went down.

-Crissa

You are living in some strange bubble where the cost of goods is dropping. The rest of the world is experiencing quite the opposite.

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[Crissa]

You are living in some strange bubble where the cost of goods is dropping. The rest of the world is experiencing quite the opposite.

I am in a bubble of reading the quarterly reports?

-Crissa

 

[happy intruder]

"Such as a flywheel/converter innovation" sounds like a magic black box. A flywheel also sounds very heavy to do any significant movement of a 6000 lb vehicle. I am certain that if there was a better solution to power transfer, Telsa would think of it.

Getting massive amounts of power from one single source in instantly variable amounts to 4 separate wheels would very likely require more weight in differentials/shafts/torque converters. EVs are really not designed to handle drive shafts due to the large battery pack in the middle of the vehicle. You mention converting power at the wheels from a single motor. You need to get that rotational power from that single source to the wheels. And the torque of an electric motor is significantly higher that a ICE engine so that drive shaft would need to be very large and heavy. Their larger motor and gearbox assembly weighs about 200 lbs from what I have read. Its likely that the solution you are proposing will weigh a similar amount and even if it does weigh slightly less the space it wastes would be a big issue. Or you can electronically bring power via a fairly light and malleable cable to the wheel and convert the power at each wheel via a motor like they currently do.

My two cents is that the next big advancement will be really good, lightweight, wheel hub motors. Mark my words. Tesla is all about getting redundancy out of the feature, i.e. the unibody, the structural battery pack. Why not a wheel that also houses a motor. I know some EV vendors out there are going this approach already and there will surely be more. Now with global EV focus we will see some of these "holy grail" advancements. Solid state batteries, graphene windings in motors. I keep telling my kids that they will fly to work in the future and I hope I am right.

yea....hub motors like the Aptera

 

[Ogre]

You are living in some strange bubble where the cost of goods is dropping. The rest of the world is experiencing quite the opposite.

The materials costs are nowhere near the total cost of the car. Barely half of it.

Their cost to run the facilities are spread across all of the cars they make. The more cars Tesla can squeeze out of a facility, the lower the cost per car gets. These other costs are as important or more important than the actual raw materials costs.

The fact that Tesla has increased production so much while managing raw materials costs with long term commitments means Tesla was able to drive costs down.

 

[Dusty]

Because the first thing everyone would do is cry about the range. By your metric they should make a 60 mile version. No one would buy it.

It's like asking why bother spending money on having a bathroom in your house when you only use the toilet/shower/sink for a sliver of time everyday.

 

[Ogre]

If you truly don’t need the cells, it’s a big jump up in price and likely not worth it.

I road trip a bunch. Camping trips, trips to the coast, visiting family. I run into range issues about once a month with my Model Y (usually low key things I can fix with small detours but frustrating enough). I should be able to keep my bikes inside the truck which will alleviate some of these issues, but I just don’t know until I own it.

I’ll pay the money and drag around the cells to avoid the issues I do have. Also to shorten my stops on my road trips.

 

[Ogre]

honestly i can see TSLA hitting 2k this year easily with both giga austin and berlin going live

The way TSLA completely blasted past $1000 this morning, maybe $2k next month.

If this is what Giga Brandenburg did, Texas is 4x the size of Brandenburg so…


Totally do not regret selling a chunk of AAPL for some long term TSLA options.


Not advice. Never Investing Advice.

Also not entirely serious if you missed that fact.

 

[Crissa]

Yes, the orders for the standard Ys were canceled. Tesla did not have the batteries for them and didn't want to keep people hanging while they were unable to make them.

Before the Y, Tesla had always allowed people to change their orders to get their car sooner, with different options, without losing their pricing.

Apparently last week they fixed their ordering system to return that feature:






-Crissa

 

[anionic1]

I am okay with this. I would love a Quad Motor version for offroading but might not be able to afford it. I will take a Tri-Motor with 500 miles. I want to get out of my gas-powered Wrangler asap. It is in fine shape but I am ready to be done with maintenance and fuel cost.

This is my guess as to the prices if announced in Nov 2019.

Base Dual - $40k
Mid Dual - $50k
Tri-Motor - $70k
Quad Motor - $90k
Plaid - $110k

There are new advancements like the structural battery and both front and rear castings being implemented in the new factories which will likely help to reduce cost, but just based on those numbers and the fact that the CT will be stainless and likely 2000 lbs more material, I really don't see a CT in any version for less than $65k. My guess is the CT will cost them around $50k to make. Add 30% you get to $65k. Per Kbb, the average pick up truck price Oct. 2021 was $58k. It looks like EV equivalent vehicles prices tend to roughly be 15% to 20% higher than their ICE equivalent and EV trucks are more rare so they can probably get even more. Using the Kbb data it would put the price in the $66.5k to $69.5 range. All that being said if you are saving to get one of the first 100,000 off the line. In my opinion you are going to land between $65k to $70k if they offer base models first. If its truly a quad long range version I would add $15k at least to those numbers.

If the Model Y base price is $65k and Telsa is looking to keep the current 30% profit margin, that means its costing them close to $45k to make the Model Y for all their cost per their financial statement. Not just the materials and labor to fabricate the product. Some people on here like to look at Teslas cost of goods sold is $36k per the recent earnings and that is very much not the full picture. COGS is the cost of parts and labor to make a vehicle. The report clearly says that its costing Telsa more for "rising raw material, commodity, logistics and expedite costs". I believe that reduction in COGS is solely because China and Freemont are up and running at full capacity and they have doubled their output from 2020 to 2021. Tesla is spending tons of money outside of the cost of the materials and labor to expand and innovate and will continue to do that. Those cost have to be factored in any evaluation of their cost to make vehicles. It will probably be 15 years before Tesla gets to the size they want to be to have dominated the EV market and made the change to a sustainable future that they want to see for EVs.

Elon recently said that it will take 2 years to get Berlin in full operation and if the CT is starting next year we should expect the same. It will also take another 2 years to rebound from this pandemic, inflation and war craziness. I wish I could be more sunshine and rainbows regarding the CT cost, but I just don't see the reality that many on here propose for cost. I price a ton of construction. Billions per year. I talk to glass suppliers, stainless suppliers, wood suppliers, you name it. Everything is going up and staying up. Its just the reality of the last few years. The 2019 pricing does not exist any more. Only time will tell how they present the new cost to the preorder holders. I am in the 30,000 range so I to hope we get some special treatment, but financially I am planning on at least $15k higher than what the preorder price was.

Per Kbb:

 

[Ogre]

Based on early reservation numbers and some rough numbers from reservation holders when Tesla actually took reservation types:

Tesla CT 1: $40k -> 5% of purchases.
Tesla CT 2: $50k -> 50% of purchases.
Tesla CT 3: $70k -> 45% of purchases.

Average Reservation Price: (40,000 * 0.05) + (50,000 * 0.5) + (70,000 * 0.45) = $58,500

== Inflation Adjusted ==

If we bump it up inline with somewhat reasonable inflation numbers. (Roughly 15%)

Tesla CT Base: $46,000
Tesla CT Mid: $57,500
Tesla CT Top: $80,500

Inflation Adjusted Average: (46,000 * 0.05) + (57,500 * 0.5) + (80,500 * 0.45) = $67,250

That gives us a reasonable inflation adjusted range which is about 17% higher than the average truck price (assuming the numbers @anionic1 posted are correct).

Something in this ballpark is what I would consider a fair/ reasonable increase on Teslas part even for early reservation holders.

== Model Y Reference Pricing ==

Another way to look at it is to use the Model Y as a benchmark. A convenient benchmark because the Model Y LR was the same price as the Cybertruck Dual Motor at launch.

Tesla CT Base: $50,000
Tesla CT Mid: $63,000
Tesla CT Top: $89,000

Model Y Reference Adjusted Average: (50,000 * 0.05) + (63,000 * 0.5) + (89,000 * 0.45) = $74,050

I don’t expect Tesla to increase prices this much for people who pre-ordered when configurations were up, but it is very likely what people who reserved after prices vanished.

That is nearly $20k over the average pickup cost and very likely would no longer make the Cybertruck cheaper to own than the ICE F-150 as they suggested it would be at the launch.


This is a thought experiment. Not a prediction. Any speculation about price changes is sheer guesswork since Teslas prices have almost no correlation to the cost to manufacture.

 

[Crissa]

...and the fact that the CT will be stainless and likely 2000 lbs more material...

If the curb weight of the Model Y is 4555lbs. And the target weight of the Cybertruck is 5000lbs, where is the extra 2000lbs coming from?

-Crissa

 

[Bill906]

== Model Y Reference Pricing ==

Another way to look at it is to use the Model Y as a benchmark. A convenient benchmark because the Model Y LR was the same price as the Cybertruck Dual Motor at launch.

Tesla CT Base: $50,000
Tesla CT Mid: $63,000
Tesla CT Top: $89,000

Sorry, I got lost here. Was this list supposed to say Model Y, not CT?

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