davelloydbrown
Well-known member
- First Name
- Dave
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2022
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- 542
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- Location
- Canada
- Vehicles
- model 3, silverado
- Occupation
- veterinarian - retired
If you look at the people that registered on the CT spreadsheet, most of the reservations were for the 3 motor version with the next most, the 2 wheeled version and the least were for the 1 motor version (there is nothing more useless than a rear wheel drive pick up truck off road or in the snow)Ding Ding Ding.
YES, there are over a million reservations for the CyberTruck. But how many put down a $100 dollars when they saw the $39,000 price, or $49,000 price in November 2019? We have to assume A LOT.
If the initial version, with unknown specs and # of motors, is a "Platinum" version and is $89,000 plus FSD, etc, how many of those milion + will convert at that price?
Every car analysis on the planet will tell you, no matter what brand of vehicle it is (see Model X) there are limited buyers that will spend close to $100,000.
Elon has already warned us the CyberTruck will be expensive. Let's believe him.
Maybe someday in the future, 2030? (hey it took us 4 years to get this close) Tesla will be able to crank out less expensive versions, but I am not waiting for that to happen. 250,000 CyberTrucks sold in 2025 would be my guess. Even that is a lot if is over $80,000.
With regard to affordability, I believe Elon was referencing the 39 k model, which will be difficult to produce and have low margins similar to the 35 k model 3, which took years to produce.
During the AGM, Elon started that the long term demand would be probably 250 K, maybe 500 K, so this is more than twice the demand of the model s and x (about 100 k per year combined), such that the CT (2 motor, 3 motor, 4 motor), should be considerably less than the s and x, and probably 5 to 10 K above the model y which would make it 60-70 k for the 2 motor and 70-80 k for the 3 motor and who knows for the 4 motor.
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