davelloydbrown

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Ding Ding Ding.

YES, there are over a million reservations for the CyberTruck. But how many put down a $100 dollars when they saw the $39,000 price, or $49,000 price in November 2019? We have to assume A LOT.

If the initial version, with unknown specs and # of motors, is a "Platinum" version and is $89,000 plus FSD, etc, how many of those milion + will convert at that price?

Every car analysis on the planet will tell you, no matter what brand of vehicle it is (see Model X) there are limited buyers that will spend close to $100,000.

Elon has already warned us the CyberTruck will be expensive. Let's believe him.

Maybe someday in the future, 2030? (hey it took us 4 years to get this close) Tesla will be able to crank out less expensive versions, but I am not waiting for that to happen. 250,000 CyberTrucks sold in 2025 would be my guess. Even that is a lot if is over $80,000.
If you look at the people that registered on the CT spreadsheet, most of the reservations were for the 3 motor version with the next most, the 2 wheeled version and the least were for the 1 motor version (there is nothing more useless than a rear wheel drive pick up truck off road or in the snow)

With regard to affordability, I believe Elon was referencing the 39 k model, which will be difficult to produce and have low margins similar to the 35 k model 3, which took years to produce.

During the AGM, Elon started that the long term demand would be probably 250 K, maybe 500 K, so this is more than twice the demand of the model s and x (about 100 k per year combined), such that the CT (2 motor, 3 motor, 4 motor), should be considerably less than the s and x, and probably 5 to 10 K above the model y which would make it 60-70 k for the 2 motor and 70-80 k for the 3 motor and who knows for the 4 motor.
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Marcia Litsinger

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Ding Ding Ding.

YES, there are over a million reservations for the CyberTruck. But how many put down a $100 dollars when they saw the $39,000 price, or $49,000 price in November 2019? We have to assume A LOT.

If the initial version, with unknown specs and # of motors, is a "Platinum" version and is $89,000 plus FSD, etc, how many of those milion + will convert at that price?

Every car analysis on the planet will tell you, no matter what brand of vehicle it is (see Model X) there are limited buyers that will spend close to $100,000.

Elon has already warned us the CyberTruck will be expensive. Let's believe him.

Maybe someday in the future, 2030? (hey it took us 4 years to get this close) Tesla will be able to crank out less expensive versions, but I am not waiting for that to happen. 250,000 CyberTrucks sold in 2025 would be my guess. Even that is a lot if is over $80,000.
I remember Elon saying it might be more expensive but he wants to keep the price close to the original. If that's the case there will be more cybertrucks on the road. Too much of an increase and too long a wait will lose many buyers.
 

intimidator

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If you look at the people that registered on the CT spreadsheet, most of the reservations were for the 3 motor version with the next most, the 2 wheeled version and the least were for the 1 motor version (there is nothing more useless than a rear wheel drive pick up truck off road or in the snow)

With regard to affordability, I believe Elon was referencing the 39 k model, which will be difficult to produce and have low margins similar to the 35 k model 3, which took years to produce.

During the AGM, Elon started that the long term demand would be probably 250 K, maybe 500 K, so this is more than twice the demand of the model s and x (about 100 k per year combined), such that the CT (2 motor, 3 motor, 4 motor), should be considerably less than the s and x, and probably 5 to 10 K above the model y which would make it 60-70 k for the 2 motor and 70-80 k for the 3 motor and who knows for the 4 motor.
We will know in about 3-4 months what the initial pricing will be.

I am okay with $80,000 for the Tri-Motor IF it has over 400 miles of range.

Range is the big unknown. Just because Tesla put it on the Specs back in 2019, does NOT mean they will be able to deliver a 500 mile range Tri-Motor CyberTruck.

There have been no major battery breakthroughs, so more range means way more weight, and way more expense. I am very curious to see what range will be offered.
 

intimidator

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I remember Elon saying it might be more expensive but he wants to keep the price close to the original. If that's the case there will be more cybertrucks on the road. Too much of an increase and too long a wait will lose many buyers.
Hummer. Super Expensive. A Ford Lightning Lariat, expensive. A Rivian with extended batter, expensive.

Let's release pricing Elon! Will it be $89,000? Or only $69,000?
 

davelloydbrown

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We will know in about 3-4 months what the initial pricing will be.

I am okay with $80,000 for the Tri-Motor IF it has over 400 miles of range.

Range is the big unknown. Just because Tesla put it on the Specs back in 2019, does NOT mean they will be able to deliver a 500 mile range Tri-Motor CyberTruck.

There have been no major battery breakthroughs, so more range means way more weight, and way more expense. I am very curious to see what range will be offered.
I live in Canada, which can have snow 6 months per year, so other than having 4 wheel drive, I agree that range is everyting. I am not interested in fancy options like 4 motors, 3.8 0-60 and crab walking, I just want a stainless steel body, 4 wheel drive and as much range and towing capacity as possible.
 


intimidator

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I live in Canada, which can have snow 6 months per year, so other than having 4 wheel drive, I agree that range is everyting. I am not interested in fancy options like 4 motors, 3.8 0-60 and crab walking, I just want a stainless steel body, 4 wheel drive and as much range and towing capacity as possible.
So, in other words you want a pickup truck? ;)

The CyberTruck is not going to be for everyone.
There are a lot of Ford pickup owners that love the tailgate step that comes out.
There are a lot of Ram pickup owners that love their siderail storage.
Chevy has its features toos.
They want it to do pickup things.

We don't know what pickup things the CyberTruck might have in store for us. Hell we don't even know what the Frunk looks like, or the under backseat storage, or how many bed hooks there will be.

Range will matter. Whether towing your boat, or your camper, or headed to the cabin.
 

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Tesla prices model Y within the average range for cars sold in the US. I think it’s intentional, and I think it’s a hint. The average truck sells from around $40k, and the average premium truck sells in the Mid $70’s. I think the first trucks may be ultra premium, and command a higher price, but likely less than the hummer. Elon said Cybertruck is hard to build. As Crissa said before, it’s not always going to be hard.
while it’s hard, it’s reasonable to assume they will sell ultra premium trucks, for a little cheaper than a hummer. As the production process Ramos up, they will sell premium trucks, for the low end of the Rivian price range.
Rivisn and Ford did not choose their EV prices by accident. They did not choose to lose 10’s of thousands of dollars, with out reason. They did market research, and priced accordingly. Tesla will do the same. As a share holder, I just hope they don’t have to lose tens of thousands to do it. I don’t mind waiting a year snd a half for mine, I just hope every truck before me is a fully loaded plaid quad motor. That’s good for margins, which is good for my portfolio. I’m selfish like that.
 

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Ding Ding Ding.

YES, there are over a million reservations for the CyberTruck. But how many put down a $100 dollars when they saw the $39,000 price, or $49,000 price in November 2019? We have to assume A LOT.

If the initial version, with unknown specs and # of motors, is a "Platinum" version and is $89,000 plus FSD, etc, how many of those milion + will convert at that price?

Every car analysis on the planet will tell you, no matter what brand of vehicle it is (see Model X) there are limited buyers that will spend close to $100,000.

Elon has already warned us the CyberTruck will be expensive. Let's believe him.

Maybe someday in the future, 2030? (hey it took us 4 years to get this close) Tesla will be able to crank out less expensive versions, but I am not waiting for that to happen. 250,000 CyberTrucks sold in 2025 would be my guess. Even that is a lot if is over $80,000.
When it comes to pricing predictions there are two schools of thought: advanced logic and simple logic.

Advanced Logic:
Ford as a Basis -
At the time of the CT announcement the Ford Lightning was listed as $0 since it was unannounced. The CT pricing was announced at $39-69k above Lightning prices.
Now that the Lightning is out it sells for $59-98k.
So that means the CT would sell for $98-169k.
The Lightning self 20-40k units per year so it make sense at these prices the CT would sell similar volumes.

Simple Logic:
Tesla as a basis -
At the time of the launch Model 3 was priced starting at $36k and the Model Y was listed for $49k and the Model S started at $75k. The Cybertruck Single, Dual, and Tri were listed roughly the same as the 3, Y, and S.
Currently the Model 3, Y, and S sell for $40k, $47k, and $88k. So the prices haven't changed substantially except for the S.
 

intimidator

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When it comes to pricing predictions there are two schools of thought: advanced logic and simple logic.

Advanced Logic:
Ford as a Basis -
At the time of the CT announcement the Ford Lightning was listed as $0 since it was unannounced. The CT pricing was announced at $39-69k above Lightning prices.
Now that the Lightning is out it sells for $59-98k.
So that means the CT would sell for $98-169k.
The Lightning self 20-40k units per year so it make sense at these prices the CT would sell similar volumes.

Simple Logic:
Tesla as a basis -
At the time of the launch Model 3 was priced starting at $36k and the Model Y was listed for $49k and the Model S started at $75k. The Cybertruck Single, Dual, and Tri were listed roughly the same as the 3, Y, and S.
Currently the Model 3, Y, and S sell for $40k, $47k, and $88k. So the prices haven't changed substantially except for the S.
I believe there is NO way the 2019 posted pricing for the Cybertruck will be close to the 2024 CyberTruck price. That is 5 years, with a lot of inflation.

It seems like a fact the Single has been dropped. So $39K is gone.
We don't know if there will be a dual the first year. Maybe, maybe not.
Tesla had said they were going to build a Quad, and hold on the Tri-Motor, but now that may have changed that and are back to a Tri-Motor.

First Edition in 2024 .....best guess......$79,000 - $99,000+ and they will sell everyone they can build.

Don't forget, Tesla is now increasing, or decreasing, price based on demand. If the demand is high, they may raise the price to throttle the demand.
 

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With regard to affordability, I believe Elon was referencing the 39 k model, which will be difficult to produce and have low margins similar to the 35 k model 3, which took years to produce.
The $35K Model 3 did not "take years to produce". The first Models 3's (of any trim) were delivered to non-employees in the Spring of 2018 and in February 2019 Tesla announced availability of the $35K Standard Range:

$35,000 Tesla Model 3 Available Now | Tesla

That's less than a year from the first non-employee delivery and less 1 1/2 years from the delivery of the first production Model 3's to employees.

In those days, Tesla was still not profitable, far in debt, and living on investor money. Now, Tesla has billions of dollars free and clear, in the bank:


  • Tesla cash on hand for the quarter ending March 31, 2023 was $22.402B, a 24.37% increase year-over-year.
  • Tesla cash on hand for 2022 was $22.185B, a 25.29% increase from 2021.
  • Tesla cash on hand for 2021 was $17.707B, a 8.65% decline from 2020.
  • Tesla cash on hand for 2020 was $19.384B, a 209.25% increase from 2019.

  • Tesla long term debt for the quarter ending March 31, 2023 was $1.272B, a 59.66% decline year-over-year.
  • Tesla long term debt for 2022 was $1.597B, a 69.55% decline from 2021.
  • Tesla long term debt for 2021 was $5.245B, a 45.4% decline from 2020.
  • Tesla long term debt for 2020 was $9.607B, a 17.42% decline from 2019.
When asked why the $35K version wasn't available at launch, Musk Tweeted: "Shipping min cost Model 3 right away wd cause Tesla to lose money and die," You can see Tesla is in a very different financial position now vs. 2018 when the Model 3 was released to the public.
 


Jhodgesatmb

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When it comes to pricing predictions there are two schools of thought: advanced logic and simple logic.

Advanced Logic:
Ford as a Basis -
At the time of the CT announcement the Ford Lightning was listed as $0 since it was unannounced. The CT pricing was announced at $39-69k above Lightning prices.
Now that the Lightning is out it sells for $59-98k.
So that means the CT would sell for $98-169k.
The Lightning self 20-40k units per year so it make sense at these prices the CT would sell similar volumes.

Simple Logic:
Tesla as a basis -
At the time of the launch Model 3 was priced starting at $36k and the Model Y was listed for $49k and the Model S started at $75k. The Cybertruck Single, Dual, and Tri were listed roughly the same as the 3, Y, and S.
Currently the Model 3, Y, and S sell for $40k, $47k, and $88k. So the prices haven't changed substantially except for the S.
Lightning was and won’t be the basis, nor Rivian, Hummer, or any other BEV pickup. Elon said so. Tesla is trying to disrupt the ICE pickup market, so if the prices of comparable ICE pickups have gone up then Tesla may change their pricing but they will still try to beat those prices because they want to convert ICE pickup owners to BEVs.
 

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The EIA's estimates are already useless, why write an article about them without competing estimates?

As you can see from the second chart, BEVs basically exceeded all their estimates, except that year that happened before a once-a-century pandemic.

-Crissa
I'd like to add, that during that time the price of Oil dropped to lowest point in most of our lifetimes. It was probably cheaper to fill my PHEV Pacifica with gas and drive it than than plug it in and use it as an EV. BTW, we still plugged it in but I think we may have drove 1500 miles in 6 months. Why would anyone want to buy a new vehicle at a time that you're not hardly going to use it? So yes, EV sales went down for a short period.
 

cvalue13

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250,000 CyberTrucks sold in 2025 would be my guess. Even that is a lot if is over $80,000.
At $80K that’s not “a lot,” that’s nearer to “impossible”

Ford and GM combined probably don’t sell 250,000 1/2 ton trucks that are $80K

Not terribly reasonably to think CT will in its first full year of release capture (or add) the equivalent of an entire market for $80K+ trucks.

To say nothing thatthe reasonable view of Elon’s comments earlier this month is that he expects to hit $250K at full ramp. He didn’t say 2024, nor do I think there’s any reasonable interpretation that full ramp will occur in 2024.
 

intimidator

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At $80K that’s not “a lot,” that’s nearer to “impossible”

Ford and GM combined probably don’t sell 250,000 1/2 ton trucks that are $80K

Not terribly reasonably to think CT will in its first full year of release capture (or add) the equivalent of an entire market for $80K+ trucks.

To say nothing thatthe reasonable view of Elon’s comments earlier this month is that he expects to hit $250K at full ramp. He didn’t say 2024, nor do I think there’s any reasonable interpretation that full ramp will occur in 2024.
Purely a guess, but I do not expect full ramp in 2024.

My guessimate all along has been about 100,000 to 125,000 in 2024.

Thus with my November 2019 reservation, I don't expect to get an email to finalize my order until fall of 2025. Anything earlier would be a surprise and a bonus.
 
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Elon has already warned us the CyberTruck will be expensive. Let's believe him.
No, he has not. He's said it'll be difficult to keep it affordable - and impossible for their competition. That contrast is import.

"We make the impossible merely late," is what he likes to say.

-Crissa
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