by the time manufacturing starts

[CyberGus]

I know, it's almost a cliche. I cringed a bit.

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[Dids]

Well that’s true of the Cybertruck too.

I should have said longer... you need to wait longer into the future. That makes them more futuristic.

 

[Ogre]

I should have said longer... you need to wait longer into the future. That makes them more futuristic.

In that case, if you want a really futuristic Cybertruck, just order one today.

 

[CEB12]

Perspective:

Since the CT was announced in 2019 only 1300 BEV pickup trucks, of any type from all manufacturers, have been delivered to customers worldwide. Assuming the CT doesn't get delivered in 2022 that number won't be beyond 25,000 maximum by next year.

Let's say there are 1.8M reservation holders total, any brand, around the world. That build rate means only 2% will have their desired truck delivered by the end of 2022.

People can be mad about not having a CT delivered, but what truck do you think you'll get at this point? No one is delivering bev trucks in any significant numbers. Rivian probably won't top 800 trucks a month in 2022. Ford looks like they have an assembly setup with little meaningful automation resulting in a low build rate that probably won't exceed 1000 per month. GM cranked out a truck... one, and it will have a ridiculously tiny run. On top of that, all of them are fighting the rest of the world for batteries.

If the CT ramps like the model 3 it'll be the best shot anybody has, realistically, of getting a bev truck in their driveway by 2024. Keep in mind that the model 3 ramp was a running riot of errors. But still Tesla managed to build 200 a week by the end of the first production quarter; and delivered 65,000 by the end of the first year.

I've said it before, hear me know believe me later. . . By the 6th month of CT production they will have more CTs in driveways than the total number of deliveries from the other manufacturers since 2019 (when the CT was announced), combined. By the end of the 3rd quarter of production the CTs weekly build rate will exceed the other manufacturers quarterly build rate.

I am patiently waiting for a solid delivery date. Still hoping that I can get my first Tesla around my 80th birthday in 2022. I don't expect a great increase in price but I do believe that the CT will be even more competitive on all fronts. Looking forward to a great kick butt product. I was impressed at the reveal and expect the final not to be to far off only better. Elon knows that those waiting like what they signed up to get.

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