Blue Steel

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I call for end of June 2022. And there are very specific reasons for my assertion. If you are curious I can tell what I heard from Elon himself. Intrigued yet?
That works for me. Our earliest delivery date is September 2022. What did Elon say? Maybe they will start delivering in 2022 on 6/9 at 4:20?
 

ldjessee

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I wanted a Geo Tracker so bad when I was in high school!!! Lol... I actually still do kinda want one...
I have owned one, drive to San Diego from Indiana towing a trailer. Drove back without said trailer.

Other than a CV joint and a crunched swing gate (got rear-ended but the tire absorbed most of the impact), it was pretty good. But my kids stopped fitting in the backseat, so I traded it in for first Subaru.
 

JeffnReno

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My guess is they'll have a select few to employees before the end of 2021 but a wider rollout won't start until 2022. The reservation tracker has my predicted date being 02/22 so unless the tracker is way off my guess should be close.
 

alan auerbach

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I can see all right hand drive production except S&X coming from China some time down the line. For example it would be cheaper to make RHD Y in China and ship a few to the UK than make them in Berlin and ship the bulk of them to Australia, New Zealand, and so on.

Whether the driving position and the trade deals are weird depends on if you are inside looking out, or outside looking in. Nothing more entertaining than watching an American tourist at a UK airport car park exit trying to master Right Hand Drive and a manual gearbox on the same day. Of course that was back in the day when tourists were a thing.
As I've mentioned, if the buzz about the steering being "fly-by-wire" is true, it will be relatively easy to install the steering wheel on the right.
 

alan auerbach

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My guess is they'll have a select few to employees before the end of 2021 but a wider rollout won't start until 2022. The reservation tracker has my predicted date being 02/22 so unless the tracker is way off my guess should be close.
Yes, there is evidence that the first lot will be sold to employees.
 

alan auerbach

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I ran this calculation for my GMC Sierra, and was surprised by the result.

With a 450-mile gas tank (no trailer) and a 250,000-mile life expectancy, one would expect to refill the gas tank about around 555 times during the like of the vehicle. That likely increases to a little over 1100 gas tank cycles over the expected life of the vehicle if you tow all the time.

This number compares very favorably with the cycle-count of existing lithium batteries. For instance, the cheap e-bike battery I bought to use in my lawn mower was marketed as being good for 800 cycles -- which is less than my truck, but should last me decades (the years will get this battery before wear does). At the other end of the spectrum, the LiFeP04 and million-mile battery options are mention cycle lives in excess of 3000 cycles, and sometimes as high as 5000 cycles.

If we conservatively assume that my 500-mile Tri-Motor Cybertruck really gets 450 miles, and that Tesla's fancy new 4680 battery doesn't last any longer than a stock LiFeP04 cell, that means the Cybertruck battery pack should be good for 1.35 million miles.

That was a fun diversion.

The average driver covers around 12,000 miles per year. That means that the average driver would undergo the equivalent 27 full charges per year (though it's likely to be a large number of partial charges/discharges between 20% and 80% SOC, which should be easier on the battery).

With a battery cycle life estimated at only 3000 cycles, and a conservatively derated tri-motor Cybertruck with a 450-mile range, the battery pack should last around 112 years. Maybe it'll only last 50 years if you tow all the time. Either way, the years will get this battery pack before the miles do.

Perhaps we should be asking about the expected shelf-life of these batteries instead?
I've heard (forgot where) that the Prius is a decade old, and no battery has grown too old to keep going.
 

pconpcs

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I think it all hinges on how efficiently the machines to build the truck can be built. From a manufacturing perspective it looks easier, but we will see how fast the line comes up. Ideally once the process gets rolling it's ripsnortingly fast considering this will be the 5th unique vehicle (well, 4 and 1/2th) they have built and I bet the pilot line process is pretty streamlined by now.

I'm optimistic, but it hinges on a lot of timelines. They'd technically be on target releasing it the day after Christmas of next year, but I'm hoping to get mine at the beginning of quarter 4 for work.
Good thoughts. Can I ask what line of work you plan on using the CT for?
 

alan auerbach

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Nobody knows when the first CTs will drive out the plant door. Even if you somehow knew, it wouldn't help without knowing numbers, versions, and delivery destinations.

Unknowns within unknowns.
 

TirNaOg

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My guess;
First couple out in dec21/Jan22, for employee buyers.
Maybe a few test ones in june/july 21.
Mine I am guessing some time in 23! :(
# 683K or close.
 

BillyGee

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Good thoughts. Can I ask what line of work you plan on using the CT for?
I do machine field service for wineries and food production facilities. I rarely need to transport machines around, but being able to put them in the bed or tow a trailer is needed from time to time. Also, the CT seems to have plenty of storage for my needs and anything I can't safely put in the frunk I will be putting in a rolling toolbox in the bed or stash in the sails.

Between cost of gas and FSD doing a majority of my freeway and highway driving it's going to be a godsend when I get it.
 
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MNSTR TRK

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Gotta have faith. Strange to say faith about a car, but there are times I believe in that "manifest reality" bullshit.

I think that it's a fair assumption that people involved in the manufacturing of this vehicle cruise these forums. I also believe that if we crap all over timelines they'll feel demotivated, and that'll bleed into real work.

To the person reading this post who is working on building the manufacturing processes that will ultimately lead to the production of the CT, I believe in you. I believe that making the thing is the hard part, and that you are up to the job. I believe you are undertaking one of the hardest things to do anyone has ever done, and doing it under extreme pressure in a very interesting time.

I have faith in you. I have faith in your abilities. I have faith in your intelligence and your drive. If I ever meet you in person, hypothetical person reading this post, I will buy you a beer and thank you in earnest.
I felt this. Like I was holding your hand in a prayer to the CT gods. (y)
 

Luke42

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I've heard (forgot where) that the Prius is a decade old, and no battery has grown too old to keep going.
I'm a recovering Prius owner and enthusiast.

Prius batteries do occasionally fail. It's about as reliable as an automatic transmission and lasts just as along, but it's cheaper and easier to replace.

The eCVT system also replaces a lot of the mechanical complexity of an automatic transmission, which contributes to the overall reliability of the car.

It's reasonable to expect a 2nd or 3rd generation Prius battery to last at least 250k trouble-free miles. But they can fail occasionally, just like any other component of a car with 3 million copies on the road.

The Prius HSD a great system with a 20-year service history. It's efficient and reliable, and it's a better choice for long-term ownership than most other vehicles on the road. But, claiming Prius batteries have never failed overstating it by quite a lot.
 

Rockvillerich

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I think this video sheds some light on a few facts that were mentioned on Battery Day.

Sorry if this had been posted before. I just found it very informative.

Realistically, I'd expect there to be a lot of time needed to ramp up such new and odd construction. Q-2 of 2022 would be my guess for actual consumer vehicles in any real numbers to be delivered.
 

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