Cybertruck deliveries to hit 100-120k in 2024 says analyst Ming-Chi Kuo

[charliemagpie]

I don’t know about that. I don’t think Tesla will ever limit themselves to a single battery. We’ve got 3 or 4 different batteries right now? And there are a couple new batteries coming out next year? And what about 2025? I believe Tesla will continue to roll out refreshes and new models and can pivot to the latest and greatest with new technology. The 4680 will fill the Semi and CT. But the 3+? Y+? New model?

We definitely be using various form factors for a while yet.

However, transition was to 2170's, and it follows 'out with the old in with the new', especially that all the company talks about are 4680's, they are spending R&D on 4680's and building factories.

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[cvalue13]

I wouldn’t want a bulletproof vest that has a few areas where bullets get through…that would be called “not bulletproof”… lol. Of what you say is true, cybertruck is not bulletproof!

I don’t think you’re thinking about this quite right

if a bullet goes through the door, it next goes into a person

if a bullet goes through the nose of the truck, or the bed of the truck, it goes into the Frunk or the vault (if not stopped by the casting)

where people are concerned, the rest of the vehicle *is* already bulletproof (in that there’s little danger) - which is also true of most trucks, really

making the doors “bulletproof” is sort of completing the feature

that said, let’s not get it twisted: none of this truck is “bulletproof” for any caliber larger or hotter than 9mm, and for 9mm only so long as the person isn’t too close and the load isn’t made hotter than the standard used

that said, I know for a fact other panels on the CT have stopped bullets (over a certain distance, and under a certain caliber/load)

 

[PilotPete]

We definitely be using various form factors for a while yet.

However, transition was to 2170's, and it follows 'out with the old in with the new', especially that all the company talks about are 4680's, they are spending R&D on 4680's and building factories.

Yep, they are. But are they building enough manufacturing capacity for every vehicle? I don’t know. And with the M3P and 4C batteries from CATL, maybe they are planning on the new tech for those? There will come a day when the 4680 is yesterday’s news. Without outside help, can they afford to shut down everything to retool the battery plants? Maybe they just shut down one line at a time and still put the “old” battery in all but the newest. Maybe they have built the factories with the plan of continuous improvement. I just feel that diversifying allows protection and makes pivoting quicker and easier.

 

[charliemagpie]

Yep, they are. But are they building enough manufacturing capacity for every vehicle? I don’t know. And with the M3P and 4C batteries from CATL, maybe they are planning on the new tech for those? There will come a day when the 4680 is yesterday’s news. Without outside help, can they afford to shut down everything to retool the battery plants? Maybe they just shut down one line at a time and still put the “old” battery in all but the newest. Maybe they have built the factories with the plan of continuous improvement. I just feel that diversifying allows protection and makes pivoting quicker and easier.

All of the above,

But I reckon if they produce the 4680 cheaper, they will be used as much as practically possible.

Wait till they finish the Cathode plant, these batteries are going to be cheap as chips compared to what competitors are up for.

 

[Crissa]

As my math (over in this thread: https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/150-200-k-cybertrucks-in-2024.9489/#post-185272 ) indicated, the trend line of 4680 production could allow 150,000 500+ mile range trucks.

Though that is pretty optimistic.

-Crissa

 

[SolarWizard]

ApPLe GuY kNoWs NoThIng

 

[cvalue13]

ApPLe GuY kNoWs NoThIng

Funny how these things cause zero introspection - they just go quiet and forget the datapoint

lots of good re-reads here ?

 

[rudedawg78]

Only if you purchase the Faraday Cage option.

 

[Crissa]

...Which is why the ramp won't stop. To the point the lines are going at full speed and they just keep adding new lines.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

One 4680 battery line is ramping, and I believe there are plans for 4 or 5 lines. 100GWh ?+

Probably less than half of that capacity is needed for 250,000 Cybertrucks @150kWh ?

I am pretty sure they will have sufficient battery supply to keep up with production ramps.

 

[cvalue13]

I am pretty sure they will have sufficient battery supply to keep up with production ramps.

but all the magic here is hidden in the words “production ramps”

earlier in this thread, the analyst predicted 100-120k CTs in 2024 and folks dragged him as “the enemy” and “nothing but FUD”

musk next comes out and says they won’t hit a run rate of 125k/yr until sometime in 2024, and none of those people are now saying “take it back, the analyst was not only pretty spot on in his conclusions, but actually even suggesting the high side estimate” (ie to hit 100-120k in CY 2024, Tesla will have to hit a 125k/yr run rate *real*early in 2024 -which squares with Musk saying <18 months** from now)



**do we need to qualify Musk time, or is it at this point just understood?

 

[charliemagpie]

but all the magic here is hidden in the words “production ramps”

earlier in this thread, the analyst predicted 100-120k CTs in 2024 and folks dragged him as “the enemy” and “nothing but FUD”

musk next comes out and says they won’t hit a run rate of 125k/yr until sometime in 2024, and none of those people are now saying “take it back, the analyst was not only pretty spot on in his conclusions, but actually even suggesting the high side estimate” (ie to hit 100-120k in CY 2024, Tesla will have to hit a 125k/yr run rate *real*early in 2024 -which squares with Musk saying <18 months** from now)



**do we need to qualify Musk time, or is it at this point just understood?

NQR

Speculation has been ongoing for a long time.

It was a long shot, but some speculating production by June.

If we had started sometime by September, we would be scaling much higher than 125,000 for 2024. IMO

Maybe there will be more delays..maybe we wont start till June next year, and we will make way under 125,000. But I don't have a hindsight chrystal ball.

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