Only limited edition $99k/$120k Foundation Series Cybertruck’s for 2024?

[cvalue13]

I'm a RN1128x and was invited to order.

I missed this (or drank it away)!

Good grief!

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[Cybertruck 1974]

they just did a big batch of FS Home Share approval notices so looks like Non FS orders are going to be processed soon.

 

[mark555055c]

they just did a big batch of FS Home Share approval notices so looks like Non FS orders are going to be processed soon.

These notices were for existing FS orders. I don't think this means anything for Non-FS orders at the moment.

 

[Cybertruck 1974]

These notices were for existing FS orders. I don't think this means anything for Non-FS orders at the moment.

correct but the big batches of approvals for installation that we all got for our FS trucks have not been done yet in this capacity. it's like they fulfilled their FS orders and now purged out remaining with this big batch approvals and are ready to move onto non FS. that's what Im trying to say is all.

 

[sylvius]

I would guess it's still only a minority of the FS orders on here have gotten the PowerShare emails and approvals. I am a 1/11 order and haven't gotten anything yet. Seems like they are doing it state by state. They may indeed finish AWD FS deliveries by April but they again they may not, especially if they are still opening invitations to order. It'll be really interesting to see how many delivered FS vins get recorded here by the end of March/April.

 

[jookyone]

It's not unreasonable for the earliest reservation holders to want to pay the asking price of the car and not have to wait an extra year to do so.

Pretty unreasonable. You are ignoring 4 years of inflation, COVID, added engineering expense (for better or worse), and just missing the mark on manufacturing costs. The prototype was built in ~90 days with what has been documented as just rudimentary ramblings.

"But I want an impossible deal." We all would enjoy that on just about everything we buy in 2023. Eggs anyone?

 

[jookyone]

Truth is as far as any evidence we have, they have yet to make a FS offer to an RN that is later than the first 24hours.

This is heuristically correct. Graphing the data here, 99% of our invited members fell within the first 120k orders (24 hours) and doesn't even extend evenly to the latter 60k (launch day allegedly had 150k-ish orders).

 

[steezymcfresh]

Pretty unreasonable. You are ignoring 4 years of inflation, COVID, added engineering expense (for better or worse), and just missing the mark on manufacturing costs. The prototype was built in ~90 days with what has been documented as just rudimentary ramblings.

"But I want an impossible deal." We all would enjoy that on just about everything we buy in 2023. Eggs anyone?

To ensure we’re on the same page, the asking price I’m referring to is $80k/$100k which is the final confirmed price announced a few months ago. This is the price some people want to pay but can’t because of FS markup.

 

[GateFather]

I see one on 1/25. I don't think there's any reason to suspect that we are nearing the end. At the most we can guess that the batches of invites going out are smaller with each wave, but that's about it.

What tracker?

 

[ubertech]

I reserved mine on 11/22/2019, so I assume all FS orders are before that date and they are barely getting people passing on them? The rejection % numbers don’t add up. I still get promotions from Tesla saying “as an early CT reservation holder.”

 

[Spacenoddle]

I reserved mine on 11/22/2019, so I assume all FS orders are before that date and they are barely getting people passing on them? The rejection % numbers don’t add up. I still get promotions from Tesla saying “as an early CT reservation holder.”

"early adopter" is a relative term. Comparing to 2.3 million orders on file, first 48 hours or even first 72 hours reservations should be considered "early" enough. It is unfair not to off the FS opportunity to these RN holders. For god sake, i personally think it is unfair not to offer this opportunity to ALL RN holders.

Well, let's say if Tesla has the higher moral standard not to extend the FS to 2025, i personally believe they can have all FS to 2026 and beyond if they open it the all RN holders, let's say just if, but reality now in the tracking spreadsheet literally stopped at 11285xxx and combine with Tesla executive said during the earning call ：

“First of all, I want to thank all the Cybertruck reservation holders for their patience. The reservation-to-order conversion rate so far has been very encouraging. If the trend continues [as it very likely will] we will soon [sell] out all the builds in 2024. And also, you know, we have new orders coming after the launch.

“The order numbers keep growing. So, we’re now all hands on deck, focused on ramping so we can, you know, fulfill all the demands and reduce the wait time,” said a Tesla executive.

the fact is the NON FS not even open for order AND we observed the invitation for unknown reason skipped large number of the extremely early RNs, before "we will soon sold out all the builds in 2024"

This is only meaning, either

1 for All RN before 11285×××, roughly 100k, the take rate is high enough to meet the 2024 production rate, how high? I don't know.

Or

2 Tesla is running into ramping issues, they know their production rate only in 10k~20k range for 2024, if according the most people here think the taking rate is around 10%.

It cannot be both.

 

[Cyber Man]

I honestly don’t think CT prices will magically go down in one year. It’s a wishful thinking. Demand for CT will continue to either grow or stay as-is, and as long as demand can meet production, there is no way they will reduce the price. It’s illogical to reduce the price when there are people willing to pay the current price. Basic product pricing 101. They might lower the price after 3-4 years but definitely not in the near future. CT price adjustments cannot be compared with Y or X price adjustments. If this logic doesn’t sound well enough, then listen to what Elon said in recent earnings call. He thinks CT is actually priced low now, though he said CT will be at 50K range when it was unveiled in 2019.

Good luck waiting for CT prices to go down after FS series. The only benefit with waiting is to flush out any minor nit picks.

 

[Spacenoddle]

I honestly don’t think CT prices will magically go down in one year. It’s a wishful thinking. Demand for CT will continue to either grow or stay as-is, and as long as demand can meet production, there is no way they will reduce the price. It’s illogical to reduce the price when there are people willing to pay the current price. Basic product pricing 101. They might lower the price after 3-4 years but definitely not in the near future. CT price adjustments cannot be compared with Y or X price adjustments. If this logic doesn’t sound well enough, then listen to what Elon said in recent earnings call. He thinks CT is actually priced low now, though he said CT will be at 50K range when it was unveiled in 2019.

Good luck waiting for CT prices to go down after FS series. The only benefit with waiting is to flush out any minor nit picks.

This is correct, Musk said that the company "could dramatically raise the price" to address high demand amid low supply but that it "doesn't feel right."

cybertruck Isn't just a electronic truck, no any truck worth over 100k but in current market, 100k is way undervalued for the cybertruck.

cybertruck is a performance Porsche plus a good enough urban truck, with never in history all stainless body and steering on wire etc… do you still think 100k won't ajust 2 vehicles combined?

 

[jsongster]

I don't expect them to produce 100,000 in 2024.

My rough math is:

2 million pre-orders.
Only 50% choose to proceed with the purchase at all in the next 2-3 years due to price increase.
1,000,000 potential orders, 25% of those will still be RWD, which doesn't arrive until 2025.
This leaves 750,000 potential orders for 2024.
5% seems like a good FS take rate, which comes to 37,500 FS orders in 2024.
37500 units in 2024 is attainable with ease, meaning i believe production rate outpaces FS demand by the end of summer and therefore, regular units will be sold around this time. With every day that passes in 2024, even potential FS buyers might be more inclined to wait.

We shall see who is correct.

I remember someone saying over 2 million. My original number in line was 1.4 million… so… your numbers seem right but maybe optimistic especially considering that many folks are only now discovering what a CyberTruck is as they see them about. In other words… the orders are still piling up…

 

[jsongster]

One other wrench in the equation - of the 2million pre-orders, how many got their $100 back? (i.e. got another truck, got tired of waiting, etc). Anyone have a guess? I bet 200k at least got their money back or and not gonna follow through with their multiple orders (3-5+)

Foundation Series is a great way for the company to keep the speculators from grabbing all the extra percieved value in the early copies. In trad auto the dealers get this… I was happy that the speculators got edged out by the 1 year sales ban. Why should they gain from Tesla’s work? I never buy scalped tickets either.

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