Cybertruck depreciation concern

cyberforce

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This thread reinforces my thoughts on Tesla and the CT/M3...

1st - FSD is a waste of money to me... I actually like driving and the free Autopilot features is what I would use the most.

2nd - I've always loved the idea and concept of leases... I'll likely lease my CT and see where it is in 3 years. If I like it still and there are no huge changes I might buy it, if not Elon can have it back.

3rd - If I bought a 2018-2020 M3 I'd be kinda pissed too... But I also understand as fast as this company is changing and growing, these things are bound to happen.
 

Mini2nut

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The Model S now starts at $69,480, the Y just received a range increase and the Model 3 just received some significant upgrades. October builds are now classified at 2021 models for the first time in Tesla history. 3’s are getting dual pane glass to reduce interior noise, Octovalve heat pump, power trunk lid, chrome delete, new wheel options, etc.

My point is that improvements never stop at Tesla. I am sure a CT assembled in 2024 will have significant improvements over the first batch of production in late 2021.
 
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azjohn

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OP

you were an early adopter, it is common they get "screwed". When VCRs first came out they were around $1K, now they are giving them away

Elon's goal is to make BEVs affordable and main stream they will only get cheaper.

In the past I have leased Tesla's , have not bought due to how fast they lose value
 

TI4Dan

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Handy Artie

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We'll have to experience the actual sales price of a CT trimotor when it becomes available. By then you’ll have the option of buying the latest S,X or Y instead at possibly a lower price. Don’t forget the rule that new cars typically depreciate 30% as soon as you drive them off the lot, especially if you paid too much for it based on comparable market prices.
 

EVCanuck

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If we accomplish to buy the Cybertrucks at the announced prices and features, I promise you the depreciation will be very slow. Actually prices for the CT might increase in the future for anyone not holding a reservation, at least for FSD part it already did.
 

Luke42

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If we accomplish to buy the Cybertrucks at the announced prices and features, I promise you the depreciation will be very slow. Actually prices for the CT might increase in the future for anyone not holding a reservation, at least for FSD part it already did.
Over the short and medium term, yes.

Eventually, though, everyone who wants one will have one. This is how it goes with all vehicles, but especially those with polarizing looks.

I don't know many trucks it will take to satisfy demand. The upper bound is similar to the demand for the GMT900 (or F-series) vehicles, which is big but finite. The longer life of the CT means fewer replacement sales.

Prices go up.if demand exceeds supply, and go down when everyone who wants one (and who can pay for it) has one. We'll get there eventually.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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BillyGee

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My take is this; EV value propositions are not 1 to 1 with ICE vehicles.

In my case I'm going to be replacing a work truck that gets a measly 17mpg and I drive it an average of 100 miles a work day. Add in maintenance, tires, brakes and such and that factors up to costing me about $15000 a year. I own the beast, but it's still nothing to sneer at when you consider it will only get more expensive as time goes on.

Once the CT takes over my cost to operate plummets and by my estimate it'll cost about $2500 a year before the loan, which I've calculated to be about $7800 a year for 5 years with the amount I plan to put down and take advantage of from state incentives. So once that's paid off my annual cost goes from ~$10500 to that $2500 a year.

So if I never upgrade my f350 it'll be $150000 to drive that beast for a decade. Compare that to my CT at $65000 plus the $20k I plan to put down and it's $65000 less, enough savings to buy another cybertruck if I want.

That's the value right there and the longer I drive it the more I save. That's the way you need to look at these things. Maybe you can flip the car after and of you're smart that money you save can even go towards an upgrade in the future. Comparing straight resale value just isn't a worthwhile metric for EV to ICE cars.
 
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jerhenderson

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If you want a steady, consistent product don't be an early adopter. Remember when a 50" plasma tv cost $15k? At this point, although Tesla isn't brand new, it's still very new, so don't get hurt by changing technology specs and prices. its inevitable at this stage.
 

egandalf

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I myself drive my vehicles until the wheels fall off so its not such a huge concern to me but I am also the minority...
My Toyota Tacoma will be 11 years old this January. I plan to drive the CT for at least as long. :) I like the argument of considering it an investment for the life of the vehicle as well. There is virtually 0 competition for FSD right now, so I hope that as other auto makers (hopefully - slim as it may be) pick up on the benefits & popular desire for FSD the overall price will start to trend down.

I doubt Ford/GM/Fiat Chrysler will do much, since they're laggards currently getting their butts disrupted, but I would like to see Rivian, Lucid, et al, get into the FSD game.
 

ldjessee

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In my area, people are finding it hard to sell used SUVs over a certain age/mileage combination. And over the last 5 years, how old the vehicle is and the mileage considered acceptable has dropped.

10 years ago, I saw over 10 year old SUVs for sale at lots and they were selling. Now (the last year), none of them are over 8 years old and they are sitting on lots and people's yards collecting dust & rust (even before COVID).

As more people want BEVs, the less resale value any ICE will have, except for collectables. That means the current formula for depreciation will have to be adjusted frequently. I would say by 2025, if most of these other companies (Lucid, Rivian, and legacy manufacturers) get their models to market, It will be hard to sell any non-collectable ICE vehicle, except for a few niches.
 

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