Depreciation concerns, especially for Foundation Series

[jerhenderson]

Of course it's going to depreciate. It's more akin to a computer on wheels than a conventional ICE vehicle. And everyone knows how rapidly computing devices lose value.

Much sooner than most people imagine, EV's in general - and the Cybertruck in particular - are going to be lots better than those being sold today. (Among other things, I'll point out that the 4680 has been a very large disappointment for Tesla and that may very well prompt a move towards a different battery chemistry/architecture... sooner than you think).

So what. We've lived in that should-I-buy-now-or-should-I-wait world for a long time with computing stuff. This is no different. You can dither forever waiting for the next new, better thing. Or you can buy the thing, enjoy it, and get on with life.

The Foundation Series will depreciate a bit more than the soon-to-be non-Foundation Cybertrucks. But here's the thing... the longer you hang onto a vehicle, the less that matters.

For either.

How the heck do you figure the 4680 has been a disappointment?? It's been a hard ramp but they appear to have the wrinkles ironed out.

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[Coagulation]

This is likley true for a lot of FS buyers.

Right. Its $150k income limit if single and $300k if married combine with your spouse. If you’ve over that you don’t get the credit

https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/credits-for-new-clean-vehicles-purchased-in-2023-or-after

 

[CyberTW]

Depreciation concern should not really be an issue. If you are worried about depreciation then you shouldn’t be buying a vehicle at all. Because that is what most vehicles do, they depreciate. If you want to minimize depreciation for a truck get a base version Tacoma.

Also the Foundation vs non foundation is not really as big a difference as most people seem to think. Everyone is focused on the $20k difference, except if you get the non foundation with the same options the foundation ends up being about $5k more. It should be apparent if $5k is a determining factor for you, then you should really think long and hard why you are buying such an expensive depreciating asset.

Yes non foundation could be better for some who don’t want FSD, don’t want the OEM upgraded wheels and don’t want the other accessories that come with foundation. Yes there is the potential tax credit for a bare bones AWD coming at some point, that is a valid reason to wait assuming you don’t have a business entity with taxable income you can purchase the foundation series under.

The reality is that the foundation series CT is an expensive vehicle and a lot of people probably shouldn’t be buying it unless: #1 they can afford it or it fills a need that some other cheaper vehicle can’t fill for some reason.

End of the day the CT is just a vehicle, its gets you from point A to point B and has the ability to haul cargo and tow. It is a luxury to buy something that costs more but has the same utility as a less expensive alternative.

Not trying to offend anyone just trying to say what needs to be said.

My thoughts exactly. Thanks

 

[Jager]

How the heck do you figure the 4680 has been a disappointment?? It's been a hard ramp but they appear to have the wrinkles ironed out.

Yes, the 4680 production ramp is ahead of the Cybertruck ramp. That's good news, but it's not the story.

The story is around the challenges of reaching targets for energy density and cost, based upon expected benefits from the dry electrode process.

Those challenges were a large part of the reason why the Cybertruck (and Semi) were delayed for so long. It's why the 500-mile range in the tri-motor never happened. And it's why all variants of the truck got a stiff price increase when production actually began.

And it may very well have been part of why Drew Baglino left a couple months ago.

The 4680 has been many things, but a ringing success is not among them. It is "good enough," but far from the market differentiator that Tesla expected.

 

[M0unt41nm4n]

Right. Its $150k income limit if single and $300k if married combine with your spouse. If you’ve over that you don’t get the credit

https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/credits-for-new-clean-vehicles-purchased-in-2023-or-after

or you have a LLC or S-corp and buy it in your company’s name and you get the full $7500 with no income or MSRP limits That’s what I did! That with the Colorado 5K tax credit, I got a whopping $12,500 off my CT.

 

[jerhenderson]

Yes, the 4680 production ramp is ahead of the Cybertruck ramp. That's good news, but it's not the story.

The story is around the challenges of reaching targets for energy density and cost, based upon expected benefits from the dry electrode process.

Those challenges were a large part of the reason why the Cybertruck (and Semi) were delayed for so long. It's why the 500-mile range in the tri-motor never happened. And it's why all variants of the truck got a stiff price increase when production actually began.

And it may very well have been part of why Drew Baglino left a couple months ago.

The 4680 has been many things, but a ringing success is not among them. It is "good enough," but far from the market differentiator that Tesla expected.

I suspect the 500 mile variant didn't see fruit after a cost benefit analysis of weight to real world application, and building the battery pack as a part of the vehicle structure.

 

[BillSirloin]

I’m not too worried about it depreciating. I like the accessories that came with the FS and was willing to pay a bit more to get it early like many others here. I can enjoy it now with my family and was able to sell my old car before its value dropped any further. We’ll see how Cybertruck prices are next year at this time and what features Tesla decides to implement as “upgrades” versus the standard features.

 

[Crissa]

Among other things, I'll point out that the 4680 has been a very large disappointment for Tesla and that may very well prompt a move towards a different battery chemistry/architecture...

Only for people who didn't read the charts. The 4680's chemistry is slowly gaining ground, as they match batteries made for Tesla ten years ago. Their big advantage is that they can, as the factory scales, produce more batteries per hour with the same machines and footprint.

You're right, cars in the next couple years will have better batteries, but that will include 4680 batteries as well. All batteries types are getting incrementally better all the time. That's what makes leaps like the 4680 so difficult; you leap ahead somewhere but you fall behind on the increments and have to catch up.

-Crissa

 

[Scarecrow]

Depreciation is a financial consideration… Personally don’t believe there is prudent financial justification for this vehicle. Requires you to value fun and experience, which only you can determine. Firmly expect depreciation rate to be higher than other vehicles, but the CT really isn’t like other vehicles. If short or long term resale or total cost of ownership is important in your decision, I’d wait.

 

[M0unt41nm4n]

Depreciation is a financial consideration… Personally don’t believe there is prudent financial justification for this vehicle. Requires you to value fun and experience, which only you can determine. Firmly expect depreciation rate to be higher than other vehicles, but the CT really isn’t like other vehicles. If short or long term resale or total cost of ownership is important in your decision, I’d wait.

There is almost no prudent financial justification for nearly any vehicle except collectors cars. The only way the CT may be more valuable in the future is if you don’t drive it and somehow keep the battery in great shape. Then maybe it will be worth something in 40 years like an original Apple iPod or Apple computer. But why buy it if you can’t enjoy it?

The added benefits we get with the FS gets close with possibly a 5K delta for getting it now. So you are mostly getting what you pay for with the add ons.

The value is the fun and enjoyment you get from driving it. If someone is concerned about the depreciation for it, then this isn’t for them. They should go get a model Y for their daily driver.

I have zero regrets on this as it’s like driving a space craft. Crazy fun. The one small issue I have is the Tesla support sucks green donkey testicles. But that’s a Tesla thing, and has nothing to do with the fun of this vehicle.

FTR, I am speaking from being a very long time pickup truck owner… some of which are luxury models. I never bought any vehicle for increased value and out of all of them, the CT is the most fun to drive. (It’s also fun when a Dodge Charger or Ford Raptor wants to race you at a red light and you spank them like a whiney little kid).

 

[JCERRN]

Everyones talking about reselling or flipping. Im more worried about getting the truck and finding something changes in my life or the truck doesn't meet some perceived capability (real world deep winter towing range for example ) and having to sell at such a huge loss that its damaging. The only way i can think to even kind of mitigate this is to put down 50% or more on the truck.
I reserved a truck pretty quickly, friends and family would likely describe me as a Tesla fan.. when they announced the truck i said this would be my next and only vehicle cuz it meets every want and need, but as production got closer and those wants and needs got either removed from the truck or never came to be (500+ mile range, side storage, gate ramp, etc) the truck that is being produced is a cool truck, but its not the CT that was displayed in 2019. It feels less like teslas attempt at a unique utility vehicle and more like how do we make a 2024 luxury tesla fit into this external shape and function.

 

[CyberTW]

There is almost no prudent financial justification for nearly any vehicle except collectors cars. The only way the CT may be more valuable in the future is if you don’t drive it and somehow keep the battery in great shape. Then maybe it will be worth something in 40 years like an original Apple iPod or Apple computer. But why buy it if you can’t enjoy it?

The added benefits we get with the FS gets close with possibly a 5K delta for getting it now. So you are mostly getting what you pay for with the add ons.

The value is the fun and enjoyment you get from driving it. If someone is concerned about the depreciation for it, then this isn’t for them. They should go get a model Y for their daily driver.

I have zero regrets on this as it’s like driving a space craft. Crazy fun. The one small issue I have is the Tesla support sucks green donkey testicles. But that’s a Tesla thing, and has nothing to do with the fun of this vehicle.

FTR, I am speaking from being a very long time pickup truck owner… some of which are luxury models. I never bought any vehicle for increased value and out of all of them, the CT is the most fun to drive. (It’s also fun when a Dodge Charger or Ford Raptor wants to race you at a red light and you spank them like a whiney little kid).

Bingo

 

[CyberTW]

Everyones talking about reselling or flipping. Im more worried about getting the truck and finding something changes in my life or the truck doesn't meet some perceived capability (real world deep winter towing range for example ) and having to sell at such a huge loss that its damaging. The only way i can think to even kind of mitigate this is to put down 50% or more on the truck.
I reserved a truck pretty quickly, friends and family would likely describe me as a Tesla fan.. when they announced the truck i said this would be my next and only vehicle cuz it meets every want and need, but as production got closer and those wants and needs got either removed from the truck or never came to be (500+ mile range, side storage, gate ramp, etc) the truck that is being produced is a cool truck, but its not the CT that was displayed in 2019. It feels less like teslas attempt at a unique utility vehicle and more like how do we make a 2024 luxury tesla fit into this external shape and function.

And this is why everyone has a different use case…six seat, ramp, side storage had little impact on me. I was initially hoping for 500mile, but now that I have lived with two teslas (279mi, 320), the range isn’t as big of a deal FOR MY USE CASE. But it is for others. I am absolutely stoked for the rig.. don’t care about depreciation.. just want a truck that isn’t a lemon

 

[JCERRN]

And this is why everyone has a different use case…six seat, ramp, side storage had little impact on me. I was initially hoping for 500mile, but now that I have lived with two teslas (279mi, 320), the range isn’t as big of a deal FOR MY USE CASE. But it is for others. I am absolutely stoked for the rig.. don’t care about depreciation.. just want a truck that isn’t a lemon

I would hope that if I was spending $100,000 on a truck, that I would be getting a little bit more than a lemon… That seems like such a low bar to set for cyber truck expectations

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