💰 Huge Price Cut on all new Teslas. Implications for Cybertruck pricing?

[rlhamil]

https://electrek.co/2023/01/17/tesla-tsla-unprecedented-demand-stores-hitting-new-records/

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[mrbig1225]

This puts Ford’s Mach-E and the Cadillac LYRIQ in a really tough place. They were both following Tesla’s pricing up the hill joyfully.

Now they have to convince their customers that their slow charging Model Y competitor is suddenly $20k more expensive than the Model Y.

I’m sure this means they double down on lobbying for relaxing the incentive qualifications. Would not be surprised if the IRS discovers car-like SUVs now qualify.

Lol.... yeah big time. They fell in that trap hook line and sinker......

 

[Ogre]

Nah.

They have to keep it under $55k so people can soak up the gubmint bucks. Maybe another round of increases to really stir up the FOMO.

 

[Bill906]

FoMo?

 

[Quicksilver]

My limit on the CT is prob around 80K depending on how many debts I can pay off before Telsa tells me mine is being built.
My goal it to finance it without having to sell too many shares of Tesla stock (I bought 5 shares today when my welfare check hit the bank).
My payment on the Diesel Pig is 1100 a month so another payment in that range is doable.

 

[SolarWizard]

My limit on the CT is prob around 80K depending on how many debts I can pay off before Telsa tells me mine is being built.
My goal it to finance it without having to sell too many shares of Tesla stock (I bought 5 shares today when my welfare check hit the bank).
My payment on the Diesel Pig is 1100 a month so another payment in that range is doable.

Based on the earnings call id say you have quite some time to continue paying down debts

 

[CybertruckAgent]

Wheels you can easily buy after purchase and swap. That leaves room for white interior and color options. Charging connectors don't count towards the cap, they are accessories so excluded. Tow hitch can be installed after purchase also.

7-seater with third row folded has the same cargo space as 5-seat, there is no loss.

Yeah and wheels for the Y are better after market. I’ve seen perfect copies of the Turbine wheels but as 19’s so you don’t loose range, that’s likely what I’d do if buying a Y today.

 

[greggertruck]

Boring Monday working at the shop, so... I just threw together some research to guesstimate Cybertruck dual motor cost/ price since Tezla still doesn't know.

Body Steel

I just googled for thick 304 stainless. Check here to see what I got. Found some .115" THICK, Tesla said 3mm. Factor the fact Tesla will get that cheaper with volume / pricing agreements, which I didn't. I just took a cost of a 48" x 120" sheet, say we need 5 for a Cybertruck... Voila.

Glass

This is TOUGH. I bet I am a little low, rob Body Steel to factor the difference. Lot of this is guess here, we do not know much at all about the glass being used. I guessed HIGH in line 9 under Prod Misc. Maybe some of the costs are there?

Motors

Probably low ish again, but not much. Munro has est. plaid motors only cost about what I put on my sheet. 2 of those babies please.

Battery

I think Elons truck will accomplish a 2.5 mile per KWH range est. This lands the 140kwh pack at 350 mi.

Braking

In the dark again here. Is it Brembo? Something else used?! independent braking on all 4 wheels. $750 a wheel here.

Suspension

Ghost figure. $1800. Adjustable air suspension

Cameras / FSD system

$2300 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Displays

2 of em! One center per usual. One dash display. $145 ea averaged out

Prod /mis. Celectronics /castings

This is a slush fund really. I don't think castings really cost very much to make. Both of them maybe $2500? No real guess here, I've not researched this very deeply to know for certain BUT.. I just wanted to embody the unknown here. Glass costs? Air suspension costs? Unknown features we don't know about?


PWR Tonneau

I forgot this one. I pegged this at 2100. Before Rivian tapped on their powered tonneau, it was a $3000 uncharge. You have to assume reasonably they were marking it up, even though it was ‍🦺


FINAL LANDED DUAL MOTOR: $62,322 with a 30% gross margin!

More range than Rivian/ Ford by FAR
Cheaper to boot
It's bullet proof steel, no paint, no scratching

 

[MiguelAznar]

FINAL LANDED DUAL MOTOR: $62,322 with a 30% gross margin!

So seats and wheels may be optional upgrades

 

[greggertruck]

So seats and wheels may be optional upgrades

Oh you were planning on seats and wheels?????

 

[JBee]

I agree with the overall concepts you present here but I think your pricing is a little of date and doesn't take into account how much better of a truck even a single motor Cybertruck will be compared to a RWD ICE pickup. The traction and handling advantage will be huge and coupled with the lack of fragile paint, super strong glass, and very low ownership costs relative to ICE, I think people will do the "Tesla stretch". And new truck buyers have more money than you might guess. There are nearly 600 million people in N. America with an average annual GDP of nearly $60K per person. One percent of this market represents 6 million people.

My wife has a RWD Model 3 and the traction on difficult surfaces and handling while accelerating hard out of corners is absolutely unreal compared to any other RWD car I've driven. In other words, RWD is under-rated when it comes to electric vehicles without a big heavy engine and transmission up front. Overall, it's even better than a rear-engine RWD vehicle due to the central battery weight.

What I would really like to see is for Tesla to only have a two motor and a four motor Cybertruck, both available with ~300 miles or ~500 miles battery. And here's the kicker, the two motor does away with the differential because both motors are in the rear. This will have the effect of making the RWD better than an ICE truck with a locking rear differential. It would climb like no RWD has any business climbing, especially with a load in the bed, because each rear wheel would be 100% independently driven. It could also torque vector and it's a very balanced configuration that would also be ideal for towing. People who thought they needed four-wheel drive might be surprised that they don't. Because RWD trucks are, even when they have a limited slip differential, mostly one wheel drive when on very slippery surfaces.

It would also greatly simplify production, because the two motor could have the same rear drive unit as the four motor model and the two battery options could be the same whether they were for the two or four motor models. The two-motor version could be quite affordable, not much more than a single motor, because it wouldn't need a differential. So Tesla could offer four basic models with the combinations of two and four motors and ~300 and ~500 mile ranges. It never made sense that one needed to get the tri-motor to get the 500 miles of range.

Lol sounds like you read my thread from a few months ago. We'll get a QM 4WD with 4WS, and maybe in a few years a DM RWD.

 

[Ogre]

For those who think Model X is a good reference model for Cybertruck pricing.

After their recent price drop, inventory dropped temporarily, then almost immediately started climbing. Not too surprising, $100k SUVs is a pretty small market.

 

[JBee]

Sort of correct. A spinning PM motor produces a voltage. The faster the motor spins, the higher the voltage. If it's an open circuit (nowhere for the energy to go) nothing happens. If there is a path for current to flow there will be current. The current will be inversely proportional to path resistance. (voltage is fixed based on motor speed). If the path is a 10W light bulb, low current and low resistance ot turn the motor. IF you connect a 6000W resistive heater, there will be high current and the motor will be much harder to turn. If it's a dead short, lots of current and there will be A LOT of resistance to rotating the motor (results similar to slamming on the brakes).
Now there's a lot of complicated stuff going on with the inverter control. I don't want to get into here, but if we ignore the complicated stuff, if the PEAK voltage (not RMS) of the AC coming from the motor is greater than the DC voltage supplied to the inverter, current will flow into the battery. Again, this is oversimplified, there are complex things the inverter can do to affect the voltage coming from the motor, that can control this, but if the inverter isn't actively doing this, the motor will charge the battery if spinning at a speed that causes voltage greater than the battery DC voltage.
If the issue was just regen power, I'd think they'd just put a contactor between the inverter and the motor. Open circuit, no current, no regen power. I noticed on one of Munro Teardowns there is an explosive fuse between motor and inverter on the Model S. My guess, if you tow a model S and the car detects the uncontrolled regen into the battery, they blow the fuse. I have no evidence to back that up, just my educated guess.

FYI PM motors still produce eddy currents when rotated and electrically isolated, because they have a permanent magnetic field created by the permanent magnets. Unlike a induction motor that has a field controller that can be switched off leaving it with no magnetic field and much less rotational resistance. (There's still bearing losses, rotational mass etc)

In essence the PM will become a kinetic to heat energy converter, so using them without disconnecting them mechanically can only really be done by using the motor speed controller to recoup some of the energy losses, either by regen (which would be less efficient) or simply by giving the PM enough power to coast. There are some switching methods (FOC etc) that can reduce the losses on a PM, but I think in the semi the clutch is also meant to reduce replacement/maintenance costs, by simply removing the driveline from the equation. Note many EU trucks only have one rear driven axle for this reason. But in the case of Semi, I think they needed the second driven axle to get the power down.

On the otherhand the M3 and MY already simply turn off their rear induction motors to do this, and use its front PM for driving at cruise.

 

[John K]

New plan

1. Trading in purchased Y for a performance Y
2. Still obtaining Fed rebate
3. Trading in new car, will negotiate a price less than 3k difference for what I paid. (Remember, I negotiated a pen, I can do this)
4. Receive a 3k discount Tesla announced for Tesla trade ins loyalty reward. (Done to appease owners who felt slighted with the price drop)
5. Own a performance model, still get the 7,500 rebate plus a portion Of the 3k loyalty reward in my favor.

twill work

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