Cybertruck labeled "side-show cult car" for superfans by analyst

[Ogre]

Their first new EV in years, the Hummer, was actually designed to use as many scarce batttery materials as possible while not significantly displacing new ICE sales in any number.

I’m not sure it’s fair to say they designed it to be massively inefficient. This is their pinnacle. They set out to make a true flagship halo vehicle and this was the best they could do.

 

[Bob Anderson]

Hogwash!!!

Tesla has over 1 million reservations for Cybertruck that should be less expensive and more capable than Ford Lightning EV.

By 2026, Tesla should be selling Cybertruck at a minimum 200K annual run rate.

While I do think the CT will be successful, I believe the reservation numbers are a crappy guide for future demand. It would be relevant if we knew the CT will have the same specs as the reveal, but we don't. If it turns out the CT is 30% more expensive, I'm curious how many will cancel. I surely will as it will no longer be in my price range. That will be a big letdown.

 

[cvalue13]

but good luck trying to buy an entry level Lightning for the new bare-bones price of $55,974

you can thank people like @SolarWizard for that

those things are fleet darlings

it’s not that they’re hard to get, it’s that they’re hard to get in the retail side of Ford

I got the 1st retail lightning at my dealership. Before that, they had already delivered 30 fleet units.

 

[Ogre]

While I do think the CT will be successful, I believe the reservation numbers are a crappy guide for future demand. It would be relevant if we knew the CT will have the same specs as the reveal, but we don't. If it turns out the CT is 30% more expensive, I'm curious how many will cancel. I surely will as it will no longer be in my price range. That will be a big letdown.

I don’t follow this line of thought at all.

Tesla has the best pricing on batteries. They have the most efficient and cost effective manufacturing in the industry. This truck was made from the start to be affordable to manufacture. The whole goal of this truck was to make an affordable truck they could mass produce.

We don’t have to guess about any of this, Tesla has flat out told us this is what they are doing, the rest is easily discovered.

Musk has said outright they will price vehicles to ensure they sell every single one they manufacture. We’ve just seen this in action and we’ll see it in action for at least the next 10+ years. Tesla‘s #1 goal is cranking out cars and trucks as fast as they can.

 

[CyberGus]

A lot of people believe we cannot transition to a sustainable energy economy without legacy auto

Tesla cannot satisfy 100% of automotive demand. If the legacy automakers do not make the EV transition, then China will do it for them, and an entire manufacturing sector of the US economy will be in ruins.

I share your skepticism, but I hope I’m wrong.

 

[CyberGus]

You can't spell "Tesla CyberTruck" without "CULT"

 

[Bob Anderson]

I don’t follow this line of thought at all.

Tesla has the best pricing on batteries. They have the most efficient and cost effective manufacturing in the industry. This truck was made from the start to be affordable to manufacture. The whole goal of this truck was to make an affordable truck they could mass produce.

We don’t have to guess about any of this, Tesla has flat out told us this is what they are doing, the rest is easily discovered.

Musk has said outright they will price vehicles to ensure they sell every single one they manufacture. We’ve just seen this in action and we’ll see it in action for at least the next 10+ years. Tesla‘s #1 goal is cranking out cars and trucks as fast as they can.

Most likely you are correct, I actually hope you are. I just think fully refundable pre-orders in general aren't a fully encompassing gage of demand, especially on a vehicle we still don't know everything about. Most importantly price and range. Demand won't really be known until true orders are placed.

 

[CyberGus]

Most likely you are correct, I actually hope you are. I just think fully refundable pre-orders in general aren't a fully encompassing gage of demand, especially on a vehicle we still don't know everything about. Most importantly price and range. Demand won't really be known until true orders are placed.

I’d say that reservations are proportional to demand, with adjustments for price/feature changes.

 

[Bill906]

The reservations are a great measurement of demand for the truck and price that was revealed.

Hundreds of thousands of people want what was shown for $40k, $50k or $70k.

But if you remove the $40k option, increase $50k to $80k and $70k to $90-110K… The demand measured is no longer valid.

 

[Ogre]

But if you remove the $40k option, increase $50k to $80k and $70k to $90-110K… The demand measured is no longer valid.

Last I checked, increasing the price of most anything by $30k changes demand. I don’t know why anyone ever thought otherwise.

Fortunately for us, Tesla understands supply and demand curves. I’m pretty sure the past 2 years of Tesla’s business strategy is going to be a case study in business schools for a generation.

The cost of making the Cybertruck will be low. Teslas desire to deliver a lot of them is high. Price will be… reasonable.

 

[HaulingAss]

I’m not sure it’s fair to say they designed it to be massively inefficient. This is their pinnacle. They set out to make a true flagship halo vehicle and this was the best they could do.

The primary reason the Hummer is massively inefficient is because it's a massive brick. It will consume the batteries of three EV's while only displacing the sale of 1/2 ICE vehicle. In other words, it's an EV they can sell that will slow down the transition to EV by displacing a disproportionate amount of battery materials relative to the number of ICE vehicles it displaces. GM still needs to sell as many ICE vehicles as possible to remain solvent.

Even the Bolt was designed to displace as few GM vehicles as possible. This is why GM will not make any EV's in high enough volumes to significantly displace their ICE offerings.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

While I do think the CT will be successful, I believe the reservation numbers are a crappy guide for future demand. It would be relevant if we knew the CT will have the same specs as the reveal, but we don't. If it turns out the CT is 30% more expensive, I'm curious how many will cancel. I surely will as it will no longer be in my price range. That will be a big letdown.

Somehow l don't believe you will be letdown......wait for $$$.....features..... performance......& so on.
This CT 'THING' will probably be a once in a lifetime BUY
[ unless you plan buying 2 or more ]

 

[HaulingAss]

Tesla cannot satisfy 100% of automotive demand. If the legacy automakers do not make the EV transition, then China will do it for them, and an entire manufacturing sector of the US economy will be in ruins.

I share your skepticism, but I hope I’m wrong.

There is no rule that says 100% of auto demand will be satisfied, with or without legacy auto. For proof of this look at all the demand in 2021 and 2022 that went unfulfilled.

Currently, there is far more demand for EV's than is being fullfilled. It's literally impossible to buy an EV pickup without waiting years or paying above MSRP. The mistake of thinking we need legacy auto is the mistake of thinking that future total production of EV's by legacy auto plus Tesla would necessarily be greater than production of EV's by Tesla alone.

If Tesla continues growing production at the same rate they have over the previous decade, they will likely be constrained by raw materials supply, even if legacy auto continues to produce insignificant numbers of EV's. The more EV's legacy auto makes, the fewer Tesla will be able to make.

Tesla has said many times they are not constrained by lack of capital, they are constrained by availablity of qualified people to make it happen. The bankruptcy of legacy auto will not reduce productivity, it will re-allocate human talent and mineral resources to a more efficient producer.

 

[happy intruder]

"how many Cybertrucks can roll up to a parent-teacher conference or youth soccer match at the same time before losing some of that indescribable… something?"

Said it before, will say it again... if CT is pitched as a vehicle to drive to the parent-teacher conference, it will fail. It needs to be a tough-as-nails utility vehicle for people who need its capabilities to get stuff done. It needs to be priced to reflect that job. Then it becomes a solid 300k-500k a year working man's truck/police cruiser/etc. If Tesla tries to pitch this as the refined luxury utility vehicle ala the Hummer or Silverado or Lighting Platinum, it will fail. I would bet money they do not do that. Analysts are misunderstanding the CT market position.

well, if what was said in another thread, I will not misunderstand a market position of $100k for the CT....I will just get the Model Y with FSD for $25l less and let someone else get closer to fulfillment of their order...

 

[BayouCityBob]

well, if what was said in another thread, I will not misunderstand a market position of $100k for the CT....I will just get the Model Y with FSD for $25l less and let someone else get closer to fulfillment of their order...

My prediction is that it will remain surprisingly close to the original $49k dual / $69k performance. (I am guessing more like $55 / $75).