Cybertruck reservation order number -- how to tell your place in line

[Crissa]

Cost of ownership is based upon the time you own the vehicle. When it's time to replace it, the value is either your trade-in value or the resale value or the insurance settlement. If you total the vehicle without insurance, then it would be the salvage value or the scrap value.

So you can subtract the value at the end of ownership from the purchase price and then add on all your expenses like insurance, fuel, repairs, etc. and divide by the time it was in service.

You can't drive your car and have sold it,

Hence, counting the sold value is silly. You're counting your eggs before they've hatched.

Does opening the reservationspreadsheet bring your browser to its knees?

Yes.

-Crissa

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[HaulingAss]

You can't drive your car and have sold it,

Hence, counting the sold value is silly. You're counting your eggs before they've hatched.

This is the standard way for businesses and individuals to calculate the cost of ownership per year and the cost of operation per mile. You count the purchase price as part of this calculation and the residual value offsets some of your purchase cost once you replace it (or no longer need that particular vehicle).

 

[Crissa]

This is the standard way for businesses and individuals to calculate the cost of ownership per year and the cost of operation per mile. You count the purchase price as part of this calculation and the residual value offsets some of your purchase cost once you replace it (or no longer need that particular vehicle).

The standard is also to load up debt, pay yourself a mint, and bugger off after selling your brand to the knock-off.

The standard is dumb.

Make measures which are worthwhile and not easily gamed.

-Crissa

 

[HaulingAss]

The standard is also to load up debt, pay yourself a mint, and bugger off after selling your brand to the knock-off.

The standard is dumb.

Make measures which are worthwhile and not easily gamed.

-Crissa

There is not one standard for everything. Why do you think the remaining value when you sell your vehicle should not be applied to the original purchase cost to calculate cost of ownership over the ownership period?

I could understand if you said because that assumes no inflation and that those dollars at the end of vehicle life are not the same dollars at the beginning of vehicle life. True, but there are adjustments that can be made to account for the fact that money has less value over time.

 

[Crissa]

Because you no longer own the vehicle when you sell it.

There is no way to know how much value a vehicle will retain, resale, after five, ten years. It's an assumption.

So it's best to zero that out since you don't know which vehicle will age better or worse, and compare the operating costs over the lifetime - not the value you can't redeem and still drive the vehicle.

You can't eat your cake, and have it too.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Because you no longer own the vehicle when you sell it.

There is no way to know how much value a vehicle will retain, resale, after five, ten years. It's an assumption.

So it's best to zero that out since you don't know which vehicle will age better or worse, and compare the operating costs over the lifetime - not the value you can't redeem and still drive the vehicle.

You can't eat your cake, and have it too.

-Crissa

Resale is particularly weird when we’re looking straight in the face of a paradigm shift. If you buy an ICE Vehicle today, what are the chances today’s resale value for used ICE vehicles will accurately predict future resale values?

But then without some assumptions about residual value, you end up trying to predict repairs 10 years out which is also quite tough to predict on new cars with little track record.

 

[HaulingAss]

Because you no longer own the vehicle when you sell it.

There is no way to know how much value a vehicle will retain, resale, after five, ten years. It's an assumption.

So it's best to zero that out since you don't know which vehicle will age better or worse, and compare the operating costs over the lifetime - not the value you can't redeem and still drive the vehicle.

You can't eat your cake, and have it too.

-Crissa

It's true that an assumption is required to include residual value in the calculation. But informed estimations are required of the entire process. And an informed estimation is more valuable than throwing your arms up and saying "I don't know what the residual value will be in 5 years therefore I will count it as zero". We don't know what gas and electricity will be selling for in a year or three either. We have to make an informed calculation to estimate ownership costs of various options.

This is all basic financial forecasting for the purpose of making better financial decisions today. It doesn't have to be 100% accurate for it to be useful, the goal is to make it as realistic as possible so it can help you as much as possible.

Ogre makes a good point and I think the auto industry today is making a big mistake by continuing to issue auto loans and leases of ICE cars based on unrealistic assumptions of the residual value of an ICE car in 2027. I don't think it's going to end pretty.

People who stretched their budgets to $45K in 2018 to buy a Tesla Model 3 instead of $40K for a BMW are already way ahead of where they would have been. This was forseeable by individuals who realized that the resale value of a Tesla was unlikely to follow the resale value of a Nissan Leaf or other BEV's of the day and would likely be better than the typical gasoline car too.

Informed estimates are valuable to individuals' financial position later in life. The fact that estimates are not 100% accurate does not mean they are not valuable. I make my living investing and every decision I make is based upon informed estimates.

 

[Crissa]

Whatever you count it at, that assumption makes or breaks a comparison.

Just zeroing it out - however you do it, be assuming the same numbers on both sides, or zero - is the most honest.

And for those of us who will use the car until it drops, assuming zero is probably best.

Again, you can't eat your cake, and have it, too. Stop trying to.

-Crissa

 

[FrankMcEnnis]

Is ti just me that it doesnt work when I clik to see where is my reservation, i've already saw it several times, but today it doesnt work. It give a error message telling me that the google drive maximum effieciency have been reach


Impossible d'ouvrir le fichier pour le moment.

Vérifiez l'adresse, puis réessayez.

Efficacité maximale avec Google Drive
Les applications Google Drive simplifient la création, le stockage et le partage en ligne de documents, feuilles de calcul, présentations et bien plus encore.
Pour plus d'informations, consultez la page

 

[Crissa]

Is ti just me that it doesnt work when I clik to see where is my reservation, i've already saw it several times, but today it doesnt work. It give a error message telling me that the google drive maximum effieciency have been reach


Impossible d'ouvrir le fichier pour le moment.

Vérifiez l'adresse, puis réessayez.

Efficacité maximale avec Google Drive
Les applications Google Drive simplifient la création, le stockage et le partage en ligne de documents, feuilles de calcul, présentations et bien plus encore.
Pour plus d'informations, consultez la page

Yes, the scripts stopped working last summer.

-Crissa

 

[ninja6r]

13,042

11,738

3,534

Mar-2024

I like where I'm at in this, but is Tesla going to honor this line? I assume proximity doesn't matter anymore due to them having a better hold of logistics now that they are transporting so many 3's and Y's.

-ninja6r

 

[Ogre]

13,042

11,738

3,534

Mar-2024

I like where I'm at in this, but is Tesla going to honor this line? I assume proximity doesn't matter anymore due to them having a better hold of logistics now that they are transporting so many 3's and Y's.

-ninja6r

Why wouldn’t they honor it?

Makes no sense to do otherwise. They have to open the configuration tool up to someone first.

 

[BayouCityBob]

It's true that an assumption is required to include residual value in the calculation. But informed estimations are required of the entire process. And an informed estimation is more valuable than throwing your arms up and saying "I don't know what the residual value will be in 5 years therefore I will count it as zero". We don't know what gas and electricity will be selling for in a year or three either. We have to make an informed calculation to estimate ownership costs of various options.

This is all basic financial forecasting for the purpose of making better financial decisions today. It doesn't have to be 100% accurate for it to be useful, the goal is to make it as realistic as possible so it can help you as much as possible.

Ogre makes a good point and I think the auto industry today is making a big mistake by continuing to issue auto loans and leases of ICE cars based on unrealistic assumptions of the residual value of an ICE car in 2027. I don't think it's going to end pretty.

People who stretched their budgets to $45K in 2018 to buy a Tesla Model 3 instead of $40K for a BMW are already way ahead of where they would have been. This was forseeable by individuals who realized that the resale value of a Tesla was unlikely to follow the resale value of a Nissan Leaf or other BEV's of the day and would likely be better than the typical gasoline car too.

Informed estimates are valuable to individuals' financial position later in life. The fact that estimates are not 100% accurate does not mean they are not valuable. I make my living investing and every decision I make is based upon informed estimates.

LOL I just read this exchange. Very, very funny. You were wise to just give up when you did. I appreciated the chuckle.

 

[charliemagpie]

Maybe this is more prevalent than we think :

I spoke to 2 people in the last week who are looking to buy a new ICE car. They have nearly NFI. And they have a university education !!!

Amazingly, the 'nearly' stands for an understanding that electric cars are coming, but it will be another 20 years, and there's too much trouble charging them.
Ohhh and they are in love with their respective future car.. A Subaru, and a KIA.

We need a new type of Darwin Award.

 

[EV130]

#1

-Elon

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