Cybertruck timeline schedule prediction -- Agree or Disagree?

[Dusty]

...
Again… this is irrelevant. No matter what Tesla launches, it will be panned by the media. We already know this...

It's one thing to be panned and it not being true, and being panned and having it be demonstrated fact. What good is word of mouth advertising if the articles spewing FUD are true? Hit-job articles stop being hit-jobs if what they say are based on tested results. I have to disagree. You have to top the specs on roll-out. Years from now when the waitlist is gone and people need to buy a truck, you'd better believe if the initial CT narrative was negative it'll equal lost sales.

We've already seen Tesla make quite a few choices based on "a few more bucks". I think enough near-term and long-term bucks are on the line with this to make them go hard at the specs.

Also, Elon can't keep repeating "...it's gonna be one a helluva truck!...it's gonna be one a helluva truck!...it's gonna be one a helluva truck!..." . . .

. . .then kick off deliveries with the lower spec truck that doesn't outperform the existing competition head-to-head.

I just don't think Elon's that kinda guy.

With you, sir I must disagree! There is a difference in rollout to the board of directors... it's those coupla' bucks.

That's because they're trying to avoid the Osborne effect for the MY.

Sponsored

 

[Ogre]

It's one thing to be panned and it not being true, and being panned and having it be demonstrated fact. What good is word of mouth advertising if the articles spewing FUD are true? Hit-job articles stop being hit-jobs if what they say are based on tested results. I have to disagree. You have to top the specs on roll-out. Years from now when the waitlist is gone and people need to buy a truck, you'd better believe if the initial CT narrative was negative it'll equal lost sales.

I’m genuinely baffled at what you think the issue would be here.

Once cars get on the road, the ground truth wins. Maybe a lot of people will say “Gee I’d rather have that F-150 Lightning, but I need the range and the Cybertruck is $20,000 less. Then they will buy it and they are hooked.

There are going got be hundreds of thousands on the road contradicting the silly headlines.

Also, Elon can't keep repeating "...it's gonna be one a helluva truck!...it's gonna be one a helluva truck!...it's gonna be one a helluva truck!..." . . .

. . .then kick off deliveries with the lower spec truck that doesn't outperform the existing competition head-to-head.

Tesla did exactly this with the Lucid and the Model S. Turns out having the vehicle that’s $20,000 cheaper, has a better network, and ships in volume is a lot more important than beating every single spec.

 

[Sirfun]

I don’t follow here.

Are you suggesting they will open up orders to new people before they work their way through the current backlog? That makes no sense at all. It’s also completely inconsistent with any prior launch.

The dual motor Cybertruck will embarrass any ICE trucks at stoplights. The quad motor will destroy it. No “Hypertruck” needed.

Dang dude, we've gone around on this too many times. Elon tweeted the Quad will be first. I'm trying to explain how marketing works, but for some reason you keep talking about coming out with a reasonably priced vehicle is best. Maybe in your eyes it's best, but think about what we are trying to explain.
Sure the high dollar/ high margin Cybertruck will be available for reservation holders first. But (HOPEFULLY) not that many will want to pay that high price. Then as Austin gets to higher production, the regular reasonably priced vehicles that we reserved will be available to reservation holders. The people who didn't reserve, but don't want to wait for 3 years will always have the option to fork out the big bucks to bypass the line, and get THE PLAID, which will obviously have a shorter wait. My problem with Alpine and some others is that some think that first vehicle, Quad/Plaid, will be anywhere near $85,000. I think the way marketing works, Tesla will come out with it at a much higher price. BECAUSE, some people will be willing to pay that higher price and Tesla will be willing to take their money and scoop up that high profit.
Like other posters have said, those people who are willing to pay those prices, will want the brand new Cybertruck when it first comes out. Later, as there are Hundreds of thousands of them, those folks will loose interest.
It's all about making profits!!!

 

[Ogre]

Dang dude, we've gone around on this too many times. Elon tweeted the Quad will be first.

I don’t disagree. I think in most of my posts I said I doubt the dual motor will be first. Same comments apply to the quad motor though. There is zero need for Tesla to beat on every single metric.

I was being hypothetical. Sorry I didn’t make it clear in every single post.

Tesla will come out with it at a much higher price. BECAUSE, some people will be willing to pay that higher price and Tesla will be willing to take their money and scoop up that high profit.

I posted about this in another thread so not going to bore people by repeating it.

Telsa is not going to fuck around with a new model which doesn’t sell at least 100k units a year for 10 years. A $120k truck will not sell in enough volume to be worth them spending the time and effort ramping it up. Tesla needs to add capacity for 2.5m more vehicles per year by year end 2024 to hit their targets. Small run vehicles don’t get them there.

 

[tren01t]

I don’t think they left an opening big enough to get the Gigapress into the building. I suspect they will knock down a wall to get it in. Also, it seems like they use some of the pieces of the GP itself when they pour the foundation for it. So the pour will be part of the install. Then they have to wait a few weeks before the concrete is set enough to install the rest of it.

In any case, we’ve seen gigapresses arrive and they are quite conspicuous. It would be tough to slide one in the back door in the middle of the night.

So kind of like Shaq O'Neal being an undercover sheriff? Okay got it lol

 

[Sirfun]

Telsa is not going to fuck around with a new model which doesn’t sell at least 100k units a year for 10 years. A $120k truck will not sell in enough volume to be worth them spending the time and effort ramping it up. Tesla needs to add capacity for 2.5m more vehicles per year by year end 2024 to hit their targets. Small run vehicles don’t get them there.

I don't know why I'm even bothering to keep going with this discussion. I like you and want to maintain a good relationship with you. Otherwise I would not have gone this far. But here goes.

What about the fact that Tesla has already made Plaid options available of the Model X and S. Those are not high volume vehicles. And just recently Tesla Revamped both the Model S & X and did this same exact strategy. First produced were Plaids, and people that were willing to wait, had to wait for standard models.

Edit: I looked into seeing about ordering them in Europe and found this recent article.
https://insideevs.com/news/602213/tesla-model-s-mode-x-order-europe/

 

[Ogre]

I don't know why I'm even bothering to keep going with this discussion. I like you and want to maintain a good relationship with you. Otherwise I would not have gone this far. But here goes.

See this is why I said I err on the side of being an asshole sometime because likewise.

What about the fact that Tesla has already made Plaid options available of the Model X and S. Those are not high volume vehicles. And just recently Tesla Revamped both the Model S & X and did this same exact strategy. First produced were Plaids, and people that were willing to wait, had to wait for standard models.

When asked if there would be a Model 3 “Plaid”, Musk said the only reason they keep the Model S and X in the lineup is for sentimental reasons. They didn’t increase capacity on those lines and they are incredibly inefficient compared to the Model 3 and Model Y lines. My feeling is they are just milking those lines as long as they can. They are cash cows. They can’t increase volume so they make them more desirable so they can make more money from them.

With the Cybertruck they can increase volume.


I didn’t mean to suggest a Cybertruck Plaid was not going to happen. Musk mentioned the idea several times. I’m just not sold on this idea of a $120k+ super truck or that Tesla needs to compete on every single metric. Isn’t having the longest range, biggest cargo capacity, biggest bed, most internal storage, fastest charging, and best charging network integrated enough?

Look at the launch lineup. Adjust for inflation. If you assume the tri motor successor is $85k, what is left to charge $30k for over and above the tri motor launch specs? It just feels to me like people want a higher price for no reason at all.

 

[Sirfun]

You have to remember the Cybertruck is Elon's pet project. Watch this video from 2 years ago with him and Leno. He wants it to come out BETTER than the show car. I think you are right that the model 3 and Y are just the Tesla version of Camry and Rav 4. Elon wants way more out of the Cybertruck.
Elon wants the Cybertruck to be Badass!

 

[Ogre]

You have to remember the Cybertruck is Elon's pet project. Watch this video from 2 years ago with him and Leno. He wants it to come out BETTER than the show car. I think you are right that the model 3 and Y are just the Tesla version of Camry and Rav 4. Elon wants way more out of the Cybertruck.
Elon wants the Cybertruck to be Badass!

I mean… sure.

But, where does the tri motor fall short? What exactly is the huge upgrade which would merit $20k-30k+ on top of what the tri motor offered?

Because I don’t see anything out there which is better than the tri… or even close. They slap a “Plaid“ badge on its and…. ???

 

[Sirfun]

I mean… sure.

But, where does the tri motor fall short? What exactly is the huge upgrade which would merit $20k-30k+ on top of what the tri motor offered?

Because I don’t see anything out there which is better than the tri… or even close. They slap a “Plaid“ badge on its and…. ???

I guess you need to ask Elon. He's the person who said the Quad is going to be the first CT produced.
BTW, The standard model S is $30K less than the Plaid. I personally don't understand why Elon/Tesla needed to build a 4-door sedan that is faster than any supercar ever built. But they did it. Elon wanted to show the world how out dated ICE technology is I guess. I gave you my explanation of how coming out with a HALO vehicle works for selling vehicles at High margins. And how then Tesla can always give people who want a vehicle without the long wait the option of throwing their money around. Who knows maybe it will prevent standard CT owners from scalping a bit.

 

[Ogre]

I guess you need to ask Elon. He's the person who said the Quad is going to be the first CT produced.
BTW, The standard model S is $30K less than the Plaid. I personally don't understand why Elon/Tesla needed to build a 4-door sedan that is faster than any supercar ever built. But they did it. Elon wanted to show the world how out dated ICE technology is I guess. I gave you my explanation of how coming out with a HALO vehicle works for selling vehicles at High margins. And how then Tesla can always give people who want a vehicle without the long wait the option of throwing their money around. Who knows maybe it will prevent standard CT owners from scalping a bit.

The Plaid Model S has a completely different drivetrain.

If the quad is the Plaid and the tri sticks around then this all makes more sense.

 

[Sirfun]

All this thinking about The Plaid CT made me think about the possibility of having low profile street tires and maybe some track mode based on tire selection. A Plaid CT isn't just to take on ICE trucks. It would probably be faster than a Plaid X and be crazy fast. I can imagine having a track mode and launch. Where the CT would lower itself in Cheetah stance, and stiffen all the suspension. Imagine some motor head wanting to play race against a Plaid Cybertruck, and all of a sudden it starts lowering itself into a badass Cheetah mode. It would be like challenging some dude to a fight, and all of a sudden he gets down real low into a martial arts fighting stance! My brother is a Black belt, and one time when he was bartending some guy wanted a fight. When he went down into his fighting stance, the guy backed down real quick!

 

[Coolbreeze704]

2012

Volume is critical. Plaid is a nice add once the masses are building the base.
Tesla is beyond the need for high markup model S to build their business on. They are focused on Y's in mass. Cyber truck will be the same.

2021

 

[MikeInTheWoods]

"Rivian might not exist by the time the Cybertruck comes out"
This is sad, I hope this isn't the case. They make a good product

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Here is my prediction: sometime in the future the Cybertruck will be produced and be available for purchase.

That is my saturday morning pessimism.

There are aspects of the proposed timeline that are reasonable and others that aren't. I am not convinced that there will ever be a reveal of the cybertruck features. There may be a delivery event if it coincides with another event, but that probably wouldn't be until production is well under way, maybe next summer?

I think of a timeline as comprised of events that aren't purely speculative: delivery of IDRA press, start of gigacasting, delivery of exoskeleton folding machine, start of folding, delivery of HW4 computers, delivery of next-gen cameras, delivery of drive unit machines, etc. We can start the clock, as mentioned, at the delivery of the IDRA gigapress components and that timeline seeks reasonable.

Sponsored