Elon Musk replies to a Tweet about Pricing on the Cybertruck

[Ogre]

That doesn't sound like he was trying to sabotage them.

-Crissa

Musk has been snarky towards competitors on occasion. Mostly in response to stupid claims or FUD flung by those same people.

In this case he was just being frank.

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[Ogre]

Hard to predict prices with all this crap going on in the world.
Any meaningful production will not start before 2023 with an estimated 77,000 units.
So if your number is 300K or higher nothing much before 2025 as they ramp up production. If any are produced in 2022 it will be in the 100 a week range gradually increasing. This will never catch the demand.
Also, Tesla Van will start production in 2024 with an estimated production of 26,000 units.

I seriously doubt Tesla is going to launch any low volume vehicles other than the Roadster and the Semi any time soon. If they do a van, it’s likely going to be designed to sell 250,000 units per year. Roughly the capacity of 1 Giga Press per year.

Unless you were thinking of first year’s production, even that is low.

 

[TruckElectric]

Nickel Jumps 62% as Russia Supply Risk Sparks Huge Short Squeeze
Bloomberg News
Mon, March 7, 2022, 10:02 AM
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/copper-soars-record-metals-surge-021925691.html

 

[TruckElectric]

Nickel Jumps 62% as Russia Supply Risk Sparks Huge Short Squeeze
Bloomberg News
Mon, March 7, 2022, 10:02 AM
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/copper-soars-record-metals-surge-021925691.html

https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural...ning/minerals-metals-facts/nickel-facts/20519

 

[Ogre]

A short squeeze is a very temporary market condition. Caused when someone has shorted a commodity and it’s price rises so much they have to buy in large volumes even as the prices are rising triggering more forced purchases.

Tesla has long term contracts for nickel with mostly fixed prices.

 

[TruckElectric]

Tesla has long term contracts for nickel with mostly fixed prices.

"mostly fixed prices." Subject to change without notice.........

 

[TruckElectric]

A short squeeze is a very temporary market condition. Caused when someone has shorted a commodity and it’s price rises so much they have to buy in large volumes even as the prices are rising triggering more forced purchases.

Nickel prices have been rising for some time. Although this spike in prices is temporary it's not likely to be too much of price decrease.

A one year chart:

 

[Ogre]

Nickel prices have been rising for some time. Although this spike in prices is temporary it's not likely to be too much of price decrease.

A one year chart:

The article you linked. Was talking about this very short term movement due to the Russian invasion. My reply was framed by the context you created.

 

[TruckElectric]

The article you linked. Was talking about this very short term movement due to the Russian invasion. My reply was framed by the context you created.

Fair enough. But regardless, Nickel prices won't decrease too much until global supply increases. I see global economic pain for at least 2-3 yrs due to Russia invasion of Ukraine and it's impact on Europe and the US.

Tesla CT with its SS and nickel batteries will be price affected. How much will remain to be seen but I'm guessing a price shock for some people.

 

[Ogre]

Fair enough. But regardless, Nickel prices won't decrease too much until global supply increases. I see global economic pain for at least 2-3 yrs due to Russia invasion of Ukraine and it's impact on Europe and the US.

Tesla CT with its SS and nickel batteries will be price affected. How much will remain to be seen but I'm guessing a price shock for some people.

What makes you think Tesla didn’t plan on increasing battery commodity pricing?

They bought lithium mining rights so they could build their own lithium mines because they projected lithium was going to be difficult to acquire in 2-3 years.

Musk has been talking about nickel shortages and locking in nickel contracts loudly and publicly for at least 2 years now.

https://www.mining-technology.com/f...giant-contract-for-sustainable-nickel-miners/

That article is from just after the Cybertruck was launched and they predicted a 60% increase in nickel prices in that article. They’ve been laying the groundwork on this stuff for the past 5-10 years and securing rights to as much material as possible.

This is exactly what Tesla expected would happen and Tesla locking up so much nickel is almost certainly a big chunk of why nickel prices are rising.

 

[TruckElectric]

That article is from just after the Cybertruck was launched and they predicted a 60% increase in nickel prices in that article.

195% increase in 1 yr

What makes you think this increase is a surprise to Tesla?

I don't think Tesla anticipated a 195% increase in 1 year. They may have been studying/watching the situation in Ukraine for some time but it's hard to know the exact economic impact of the impending invasion and implications of war with Europe and possibly the US eventually.

 

[Ogre]

195% increase in 1 yr

I don't think Tesla anticipated a 195% increase in 1 year. They may have been studying/watching the situation in Ukraine for some time but it's hard to know the exact economic impact of the impending invasion and implications of war with Europe and possibly the US eventually.

Now we’ve come full circle and you are pointing at the prices which are the result of the short squeeze again.

 

[TruckElectric]

Now we’ve come full circle and you are pointing at the prices which are the result of the short squeeze again.

Again, the price spike will not decrease that much as long as there is uncertainty about supply.

 

[Ogre]

Again, the price spike will not decrease that much as long as there is uncertainty about supply.

If it’s a short squeeze—as your link suggests—it will be a non-event for Tesla.

Tesla doesn’t pay spot prices. In the unlikely event it’s a long term increase, Teslas costs will go up 2-3 years down the road. That’s pretty unlikely though.

 

[TruckElectric]

Tesla doesn’t pay spot prices.

Do you understand the difference between spot prices and future contracts? It doesn't seem so.

Prices I showed were LME Nickel futures contracts.

In the unlikely event it’s a long term increase, Teslas prices will go up.

I guarantee Tesla prices will increase. CT prices will SHOCK YOU! You seem oblivious to economic reality.

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