POLL: Cybertruck Pricing

When announced, the increased Cybertruck pricing will be:


  • Total voters
    70
  • Poll closed .

Dusty

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It's not a 'three year hold'.

The price was supposed to be the price just nine months ago. 9 months is smaller than 3 years. By alot.

-Crissa
The price as seen through 2019 eyeglasses. And, the MY price increased how much over the past 9 months?
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CyberGus

CyberGus

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Keep in mind:
  • All Plaids will be Quad, but
  • Not all Quads will be Plaid
Elon has said that there will be a Plaid (of course), and the first CT will be Quad, but that does not mean the first CT is Plaid.

In fact, I'm willing to bet that the Plaid is at least another year or two after ship. Why? Because the bonkers acceleration is a function of power delivery, not the motor. (Well, it's also the motor, but that's a solved problem.) To really get Plaid performance, they'll need to have solved the 4680 problem, which is still improving incrementally.

So, the first CT is not going to be $150k, it's going to be a Tri-motor with one more motor, which will nominally add $10k-$15k.
 

RMK!

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Yeah, Tesla likes to use things which are cheap or free for them as incentives or for discounts.

Giving 50% off FSD might cost Tesla a bit of lost sales, but it is software and FSD sales are pure margin. It’s an easy give.
As someone who was in the software biz, calling software sales as "pure margin" is an old trope. Truth is, the cost of FSD development and support is very expensive and, it will never be "done" ...

That is why Tesla self identifies as a software company perhaps more than as a manufacturing company.

I guess some enjoy all this speculation and gnashing of teeth, but for me it gets tiring. It appears likely that in less than a year, the first real Cybertrucks will have been built and deliveries will start. I believe the product will be great and the price, whatever it is, will be competitive in the marketplace.

Note, Ford just raised their Lightning prices by up to $8500. Please carry on ...
 
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CyberGus

CyberGus

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As someone who was in the software biz, calling software sales as "pure margin" is an old trope. Truth is, the cost of FSD development and support is very expensive and, it will never be "done" ...
I don't think anyone was suggesting that the software faerie is where PS5 games comes from, but instead that the cost of production is essentially zero. It costs no more to make 10,000 copies as it does 1 copy.

...unless you're selling on the Apple Store, in which case it costs 30%
 


RMK!

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I don't think anyone was suggesting that the software faerie is where PS5 games comes from, but instead that the cost of production is essentially zero. It costs no more to make 10,000 copies as it does 1 copy.

...unless you're selling on the Apple Store, in which case it costs 30%
Thanks for the interesting alliteration . As I'm sure you know, software is normally licensed for use, not sold and while the replication of each developed software license appears to be zero cost the constant revising, testing, implementation, deployment and support of software presents a considerable cost to the developing company. So your reference to the "cost of production" is apples and oranges.
 
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CyberGus

CyberGus

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Thanks for the interesting alliteration . As I'm sure you know, software is normally licensed for use, not sold and while the replication of each developed software license appears to be zero cost the constant revising, testing, implementation, deployment and support of software presents a considerable cost to the developing company. So your reference to the "cost of production" is apples and oranges.
I mentioned Apple, duh
 

TyPope

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I can see Tesla honoring the FSD price for reservation holders who ordered before they removed pricing.

Too much time has passed and a lot of other crap went down since the unveil almost 3 years ago. I mean, a global pandemic that caused a goods production collapse, which resulted in world-wide shipping disruptions... tipping off a component shortage for manufacturers...

...all of which triggered a global recession/inflation cycle.

And people are like...

sassymad.jpg


Even in good economic times a 3 year hold on the price for something like a vehicle is a long shot. These times? not a chance.

The realistic perspective regarding the price increase is "how much?", not "will it?". That's just the way it is, and to expect otherwise is setting yourself up for a letdown. I'll stand by something I've been saying—There may be a nice surprise that the CT may not be as expensive as we think it could be.

Tesla may attack the segment so that they leave zero-doubt in the KING-of-the-EV-trucks discussion. They should dominate with something like, >25% more range than everyone else and way better specs across the board. Then have the price only be about 10% more expensive than the competition to trigger buyer's remorse for people who chose to buy other trucks. That way, if there are some oopsies in initial build quality, a lot gets forgiven because they have monster specs.
Keep in mind that Tesla has some smart people at the top. Perhaps they priced it in the beginning with inflation in mind. Surely, they knew battery chemistry components would be more expensive. It's doubtful they knew the dumpster fire of inflation was coming but maybe they hedged enough to take enough edge off that they can keep the prices reasonably close to that revealed price. (Yes, I know they were planning on having them on the road sooner...)
 

Ogre

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As someone who was in the software biz, calling software sales as "pure margin" is an old trope. Truth is, the cost of FSD development and support is very expensive and, it will never be "done" ...
There is no incremental cost to software. If Tesla sells FSD to 10k people or to 1m people, it costs the same to produce.

Margin is typically defined as the price you sell the thing for minus the incremental cost to produce it. There is no incremental cost.

That doesn’t mean it’s free. I write software… I understand that developers do indeed get paychecks.
 

anionic1

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They are act like the early reservations don't even exist. It might give us a slot in the queue for a chance to order whatever the options are when it is available, but there tactic is going to be to justifiably blame inflation, point to the fact that they are not in fact making any of the original options but rather better versions of them. And the people willing to pay the new price will get their truck. End of story. There will be people posting emotional stuff 10 years later about still waiting for their original CT pricing. One truth in this world is that cost always tend to go up. The original 1948 F1 ford truck adjusted to todays dollars would be about $13k. And the base truck today is $30k. And there is an argument to be made for the much higher tech in todays truck but also an argument for the streamlining of industrial processes which should bring cost down.

If we are lucky we will get them to honor our FSD pricing. I got in at $7k, which I still think is a gamble with the struggle FSD has been going through, but I do see that in the future it may be worth more than that. When I can send my truck to the hardware store for me to pick up my order and bring it back to me, that will be the day. Or when it brings my kids home safe after a party.

So I think my vote would be the second one but its worded a little oddly.
 


anionic1

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Keep in mind that Tesla has some smart people at the top. Perhaps they priced it in the beginning with inflation in mind. Surely, they knew battery chemistry components would be more expensive. It's doubtful they knew the dumpster fire of inflation was coming but maybe they hedged enough to take enough edge off that they can keep the prices reasonably close to that revealed price. (Yes, I know they were planning on having them on the road sooner...)
So they would have figured in typical inflation through 2021 of 2% per year, not 10%, Or 4%-6% total not 20% to 30%. Also, the competition is now heating up for the same EV supplies and that will keep some cost higher.
 

TyPope

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So they would have figured in typical inflation through 2021 of 2% per year, not 10%, Or 4%-6% total not 20% to 30%. Also, the competition is now heating up for the same EV supplies and that will keep some cost higher.
You are probably right about their inflation guesses. I would also posit that Tesla was counting on efficiencies gained in manufacturing methods as well as a better factory for production. The flow through Giga Austin is much better than Freemont. Plus, the machinery will be newer and optimized even better. There's no way they could have predicted the level of inflation we saw. Of course, by the time they start deliveries, the inflation may have backed itself to a more normal level.
 

anionic1

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You are probably right about their inflation guesses. I would also posit that Tesla was counting on efficiencies gained in manufacturing methods as well as a better factory for production. The flow through Giga Austin is much better than Freemont. Plus, the machinery will be newer and optimized even better. There's no way they could have predicted the level of inflation we saw. Of course, by the time they start deliveries, the inflation may have backed itself to a more normal level.
I hope inflation is backing off and it looks like it is slowing for sure. I am a chief estimator for a company buying about $900M in construction this year and I could use some better deals.
 
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CyberGus

CyberGus

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That's option #1, if that's unclear
I may not be good at this lol
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