Elon Musk replies to a Tweet about Pricing on the Cybertruck

[Ogre]

Pleas be patient and chill out with each other, it will be what it is and we will find out eventually.

I tried to be neutral in the top post and sort of went downhill from there.

Not going to drag out my half of the argument anymore as you suggest, it’s a bugbear we don’t need to worry about unless it arrives.

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[Ogre]

FWIW. Tesla did sort-of increase prices on the Roadster. Reading the letter and the details around it might make people appreciate what to expect in the future.

https://saxton.org/tom_saxton/2009/01/price-increase-explanation.html

Clearly not a decision he took lightly.

 

[SpaceYooper]

My prediction:

$60k - single motor 2025

$75k - Dual motor end 2024

$100k Tri-motor - begining 2024

$120k+ Quad motor

IF anything of these configs are under my prediction that would be amazing.

Again...a 40+% to 50+% hike prediction. If true would be unpalatable to most and certainly a far cry from achieving the affordable goal.

My prediction. You should prepare to be amazed!

 

[hridge2020]

 

[Ogre]

Ways Tesla has manipulated pricing when under cost pressure.

* Roadster I mentioned above. They increased the cost of options left the cost of the base car and introduced a higher end, more appealing (and expensive) version.
* Model 3 — They just delayed the launch of the $35k version so long most reservation holders ordered a higher end one.
* Model X Refresh (most recent one) — They told people who ordered during the shut down they needed to pony up $8k more for what was arguably a much better vehicle. (Roughly a 10% price bump)

 

[Tinker71]

In @Crissa support of the thesis put forward that pricing will remain unchanged, under appreciated is the engineering value chain.

Tesla are stamping structural batterypack chassis assy.
Tesla use break form for exoskeleton.
Tesla patented crumple zones formed into structure.
Tesla eliminated all gauges, dials, buttons and switches with monitor.
Tesla engineered 4680 to cut costs
Cybertruck motors are std. passenger car motors regeared.
Cybertruck dynamics are scaled Tesla passenger suspension system.
Cybertruck cut steering wheel in half to save cost.
Cybertruck interior is std bucketseat automotive design - no leather
Cybertruck uses hubcap over wheel to save cost.

At the end reveal, Elon Musk knew full well exactly how aggressive Cybertruck pricing had to be. Tesla was taking head-on a 40yr+ leader in pickup trucks FORD F-150.

F-150 and Cybertruck was Tesla’s trial horse design brief for GigaAustin. That whole plant is purpose designed, engineered and built to win a war Elon started - deliberately. Economy of scale maufacture is the weapon of choice Elon possesses in GigaAustin.

What a fabulous moment to be alive, three new Giga factories coming online and signing new takeoff contracts weekly for lithium mine product to make your latest 4680 batteries.

Elon is not skipping a beat! This is masterpiece 909 for the ages. Crissa isn’t standing on principle, it is years of strategic planning, engineering, science, and the most formidable mind in business technology steering the project.

I look at it simply. Raising price of the vehicle isn’t going to sell any more pickups, turn any more FORD pickup buyer or convinve the world that battery is better. The maths don’t add up. So Tesla will build their way out of commitments made, competition it started and win its proposition that Cybertruck is better

I love most your rationale. Except there will be a modest price increase of $3-5k per unit and 90% of us will understand and accept that given Covid driven inflation. Nobody else will be able to hold price increases to that level either. After all wages have risen.
4WS and making some stuff optional are wildcards. The Quad will have a huge mark up for Tesla to get the cream before the scalpers. The rest of us will wait a little longer and things will naturally settle out a little bit.

I

 

[Ogre]

Except there will be a modest price increase of $3-5k per unit and 90% of us will understand and accept that given Covid driven inflation.

Wouldn’t shock me.

I just find the chatter about 30-50% price bumps which seem to crop up to be ludicrous.

That’s not inflation, that’s a whole other product category.

 

[Eye of Elon]

Can we political rant elsewhere?

Bernie does not set Cybertruck pricing.

He ain't the guy who brought Bernie into the thread.

 

[charliemagpie]

Goodness, that's from 2009

How much have we learned about EV's in general since then ? Comparing Rivians predicament with Tesla's 2009 predicament is comparing chalk and cheese.

Let me put it in point form :

1. We are saying that with a 13-year advantage , Rivian is suffering the same issues as Tesla. Edmund Hillary paved the way up Mount Everest... now it's a train station.... We have learned from that. Rivian should be held to account for needing to learn something.

2. What Tesla did in 2009 should not be held as a precedent to what Tesla will do in 2023. Goodness sake… Another Chalk and Cheese event !
We are not Rivian… We learn, We get better. To think otherwise, is illogical in the face of all the progress since 2009.

By all means stick to the thought that because Tesla did something in 2009 they are now Horse fuckers forever.

 

[Klaxon]

I can't afford thinking about the higher prices

 

[Quicksilver]

Like everyone on here I'm waiting for my CT.
This is the last vehicle I'll ever buy.
I just had to buy an ICE diesel pickup to replace our farm truck. Price was north of 70K for a bare bones truck which is what you want for a working farm truck.
My hope is by the time they contact me to do my final build sheet I will have everything paid for except the Diesel Pig.
If that has happened and my disposable income has increased (and my Tesla stock has increased big time) I think I could manage a payment of around 1200 a month without becoming "car poor" depending on how much stock I sell for the down payment.
My CT will be the same with function being the main goal. My cutoff price will be around 80K which I hope will get me a bare bones quad motor.
I don't give a rip about fancy interior, fancy wheels or a high dollar entertainment and gaming system. I adhere to the KISS principle.
Since I'm 400,000 or so down the line I'm hoping the pricing will level out by the time my CT is built.
Hopefully we will all be pleasantly surprised when the final pricing is announced.

 

[CostcoSamples]

CT isn't just competing against the entire pickup truck market, but also the auto market in general. A lot of people would love to drive a pickup but don't feel it is worth it (total cost of ownership is very high for pickups). CT might actually change that. If CT can be competitive on purchase price, it may dominate on total cost of ownership.

 

[Crissa]

He ain't the guy who brought Bernie into the thread.

I'm sorry, what did Bernie have to do with anything? Did you counter the fact that was mentioned? No?

Comparing Rivians predicament with Tesla's 2009 predicament is comparing chalk and cheese.

No, not really. Rivian is in the same position: Trying to produce their first vehicle. They might have 13 years, but they're trying to do their Roadster and their Model 3 at the same time. So it's actually very similar. They might not make it.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

No, not really. Rivian is in the same position: Trying to produce their first vehicle. They might have 13 years, but they're trying to do their Roadster and their Model 3 at the same time. So it's actually very similar. They might not make it.

Tesla (pre Musk) had a crazy idea to explore a market niche nobody was in (like Aptera actually). They had a trickle of funding, and a small, dedicated customer base. They barely got their car out the door because their cash was drying up. If they didn’t make some profit on their car, they would have had to close their doors.

Rivian is entering a niche Ford, Tesla, and GM are entering. I know Rivian announced their plans first, but it was clear extension of the existing market. There were 2 other startups exploring the same space. They have massive piles of funding and little discipline in spending it. They have literally billions of dollars and crazy high operating expenses which would have bankrupted Tesla before the Roadster got out the door.

I don’t see the parallels you see here. I see a lot of sloppy management, an engineering and design team who had little to no discipline in designing an affordable vehicle, and tons of sham-wow to lure in yet more investors.

If Rivian’s management were in charge of the Roadster, it would have never launched.

 

[Crissa]

What, you don't think there weren't sportscars before Tesla was in the niche? Or delivery trucks?

Rivian had a chance to be out ahead, like Tesla. But just like Tesla, they had delays, and their funding is being soaked up. The Leaf (and a couple others) made it to customers before the Model S did. The Bolt made it before the Model 3. Being first isn't everything, but it does help.

That's why this is like Tesla's situation, it's pretty much exactly like Tesla's situation. Can you imagine how bad it would be for Rivian now if Cybertruck hadn't been delayed five quarters?

-Crissa

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