Elon Musk replies to a Tweet about Pricing on the Cybertruck

[TruckDaddy]

By the time the Cybertruck ramps up, the AI robot touted in the earnings call will be doing 80% of the cyclic chores getting better and better at $2/hr. vs $30/hr. at Rivian while still taking 3X hours to get a truck made because ramping is hard, so $90/hr. $2 vs $90, good luck, Rivian and others.

Most of Elon's plans go right over others' heads.

Sponsored

 

[ED_SFO]

All true but Tesla has yet to report any profits from EV produced in the United States. Tesla's only profits have come from China.

I'm pretty sure that's why they built gigatexas ...much easier to hit profits when you build a factory from scratch and can streamline the whole process with batteries made under the same roof. Unfortunately I don't think CT is a main priority this year...they have to rework every inch to get the cost down to where regular ppl who buy trucks will consider it. $50k before incentives is ideal...no way to have a $40k truck in this market. I mean a RAV4 prime goes for $45k sticker. $60k is going to be a stripper CT no options just a cab and a bed.

 

[Macgyverfever]

A lot of people in the Rivian community *HATE* the Cybertruck, some hate all things Tesla. Reminds me of Android fans and their hate of all things Apple.

I don’t know why exactly, likely varies a lot. It’s also not 100%. A fair number on here and elsewhere own Teslas and were eyeballing Rivian.

Ya know, I can't imagine a Rivian driving through Ukraine right now let alone a M Y or M 3, but the CT on the other hand:

I would give the haters room to say the CT might be a flop just to be as open-minded as possible, but given the post-apocalyptic nuclear world fears multiplied by how much we all secretly want to concoct a Molotov cocktail and light it for a Ukrainian to then throw at a Russian tank driver, well, that's checkmate imo.

 

[Ogre]

I'm pretty sure that's why they built gigatexas ...much easier to hit profits when you build a factory from scratch and can streamline the whole process with batteries made under the same roof. Unfortunately I don't think CT is a main priority this year...they have to rework every inch to get the cost down to where regular ppl who buy trucks will consider it. $50k before incentives is ideal...no way to have a $40k truck in this market. I mean a RAV4 prime goes for $45k sticker. $60k is going to be a stripper CT no options just a cab and a bed.

Cybertruck isn’t starting production this year, but they seem to be doing a fair bit of engineering on it.

 

[EV Rob]

I hope Ogre and Crissa are right, and that Tesla can stick by the original CT truck prices. But I'm not optimistic. Problem is too many dollars are chasing too few goods and services. For two years we simultaneously limited production with lockdowns and pumped 30% too many dollars into the economy through low rates and stimulus. Look at the hockey stick in the money supply, below. Inflation has to go up 30% over the next several years to sop up all these extra dollars. Yes, productivity can absorb some, but not all. And a stock market crash could take more. But most will be soaked up by making dollars worth less, through inflation. Look at us - we're a microcosm of the economy, begging for CTs that Tesla can't make. I'm sure Tesla will want to honor it's prices, but it is not exempt from the economy in which it operates.

Prices will keep going up. Don't like it, it's just math.

h

 

[anionic1]

I think this completely goes hand in hand with what his statement was at the earnings call. Everything is so expensive right now it doesn’t make profitability sense to start new stuff when you are very clearly having to raise prices on your current mass produced stuff to maintain profit.

I think they are thinking to let this bubble pass. My concern is that it will probably take 5 steady economic years for that to happen and the more chaos in the economy the longer it will take. And real wages keep falling further behind cost of living so in 5 years affordability will look even worse even if parts and material are settled. And now every other manufacturer is hit on Tesla’s heals trying to compete so that will continue to heavily strain resources

I do think that Tesla underestimates their fan base. I bet they could charge $150k for the first 50,000 trucks and they would sell every one of them without hesitation. Elon mentioned that affordability is the current challenge and I definitely think he is wrong there. I think that should be the year after the CT is rolling off the line. Not the current challenge. But I am no car manufacturer so what do I know.

I have said it before. I think Elon is getting tired and wants cruise control for a while. But when we do see the CT, even if years from now, it will be amazing.

 

[JBee]

No cruise just Starship. A CT can't get you to Mars.

 

[Crissa]

All true but Tesla has yet to report any profits from EV produced in the United States. Tesla's only profits have come from China.

That's not how profits work. They don't report their margin from their factories independently, this is just estimated by analysts.

Inflation has to go up 30% over the next several years to sop up all these extra dollars.

No, it does not.

The money supply is not like air in a balloon. As it gets soaked up in corporate profits, it stops bouncing around the economy.

-Crissa

 

[rr6013]

First let me say the only reason I still have a reservation is that I hope and wish you are correct and still believe there is a chance you are. But I think that chance is less than 50%.

I think the philosophical difference we have here is that you think of the pricing we got as a commitment. I think of it as a goal Tesla had. Not all goals are achieved and like stock market past performance does not guarantee future outcome. If I remember correctly, when the pricing were taken off the website, there were already close to 2 million reservations. If Tesla can get $20K-$30K more for even half of those and decide not to just so they can meet our expectation, that is a high price for integrity. Looking at Rivian forum, you can see a lot of people that looked at a business as their personal friend and feel mighty disappointed right now.

I think Tesla is shooting for affordable CTs because that is the best way to take over the truck market and to make an environmental impact but they will start with the high margin CTs first. Once they run out of demand for those, they will get to high volume low price CTs. The thing is we don't seem to run out of wealthy people that can and will pay for expensive trucks.

Tesla is still changing the truck. If there is no single motor when they go to production, you can not hold them to the promise of a $40K truck. In the same way, if the specs of the truck has changed for other trims, they really are not the same trucks so they legitimately can price them differently. That way they have not broken with tradition. They just give a different price for a different truck.

All that said, I keep my fingers crossed that Tesla's ability to build the truck at lower cost, does translate to the lower price for customers. I remain hopeful but not emotionally invested.

In @Crissa support of the thesis put forward that pricing will remain unchanged, under appreciated is the engineering value chain.

Tesla are stamping structural batterypack chassis assy.
Tesla use break form for exoskeleton.
Tesla patented crumple zones formed into structure.
Tesla eliminated all gauges, dials, buttons and switches with monitor.
Tesla engineered 4680 to cut costs
Cybertruck motors are std. passenger car motors regeared.
Cybertruck dynamics are scaled Tesla passenger suspension system.
Cybertruck cut steering wheel in half to save cost.
Cybertruck interior is std bucketseat automotive design - no leather
Cybertruck uses hubcap over wheel to save cost.

At the end reveal, Elon Musk knew full well exactly how aggressive Cybertruck pricing had to be. Tesla was taking head-on a 40yr+ leader in pickup trucks FORD F-150.

F-150 and Cybertruck was Tesla’s trial horse design brief for GigaAustin. That whole plant is purpose designed, engineered and built to win a war Elon started - deliberately. Economy of scale maufacture is the weapon of choice Elon possesses in GigaAustin.

What a fabulous moment to be alive, three new Giga factories coming online and signing new takeoff contracts weekly for lithium mine product to make your latest 4680 batteries.

Elon is not skipping a beat! This is masterpiece 909 for the ages. Crissa isn’t standing on principle, it is years of strategic planning, engineering, science, and the most formidable mind in business technology steering the project.

I look at it simply. Raising price of the vehicle isn’t going to sell any more pickups, turn any more FORD pickup buyer or convinve the world that battery is better. The maths don’t add up. So Tesla will build their way out of commitments made, competition it started and win its proposition that Cybertruck is better

 

[Macgyverfever]

I think the FSD price at the time of reservation is at the very-least going to be price-locked (no way do I want to pay a future FSD price of 14k or whatever it'll be by the time the CT is released)

 

[cmugler]

this morning Rivian reservation holders received notice thay are backtracking the price increase and they will honer the original price if confiquered before March 1st

 

[hridge2020]

this morning Rivian reservation holders received notice thay are backtracking the price increase and they will honer the original price if confiquered before March 1st

 

[hridge2020]

Rollout prices.... we saw

Prices we might see

 

[Zabhawkin]

All this speculation about price, fact is we don't know, there is about a year give or take to go before they start shipping (and even that is not known for sure).

Musk gave us the best answer he could.... by essentially saying they are trying their best.

We don't know what the final price will be and if you read the reservation agreement it leaves wiggle room. Crap happened between announcement and release, there is nothing we or Tesla can do about it, and it will likely affect the price but we don't know by how much. Every couple of weeks a post like this comes up and people get agitated and start going for each others throats.

Pleas be patient and chill out with each other, it will be what it is and we will find out eventually.

 

[Ogre]

this morning Rivian reservation holders received notice thay are backtracking the price increase and they will honer the original price if confiquered before March 1st

What about an option to “Uncancel” a reservation?

Sponsored