Elon Musk: "Walked whole Cybertruck production line at Giga Texas for several hours earlier today – gonna be awesome!" - 4/2/23

[Bill W.]

The line sounds like it is nearing completion. While it would be great to get a CT as early as possible, I would prefer that the factory gets a few thousand under their belt before I take delivery. Start of vehicle production, particularly a new design with unique processing is almost always a sh*t-show, with many adjustments/tweaks needed to muscle the line into production readiness.

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[Alan]

So far the time lines are still vague and aspirational. When they can reliably make the castings and have a good battery their statements will be definitive. My 2017 S was going to be able to drive itself from LA to New York by the end of 2017. It’s one thing to be close and another to actually get there. I hope they get there by summer I just don’t see it yet.

 

[AlDente]

Number musing ...
Tesla's Fremont Factory currently has an output of up to 600,000 cars per year. That's more than 1600 per day.

For the CyberTruck, the large casting's will be the #1 production pacing challenge. If Giga Texas has 2 Giga Press's and each GP can produce 30 castings per hour, with 2 lines running 24X7, 365, that is over 500K casting per year. So, it seems possible that at max production, with zero down time, there is the potential to produce approx 500K CyberTrucks per year at Giga Texas. Even though the math is fuzzy, and there are many other issues, I would think 250K per year would be a realistic goal for even 1st year production. In year 2+ that number could easily be 300-400K/year.

Its going to be interesting so see how this plays out but in an fully optimized scenario, the "machine that makes the machines" strategy could provide some astonishing production numbers. Holding a 150K ish reservation number, I'm rooting hard for big numbers year one. I'm not getting any younger and although the waiting has been tough, it seems to be moving along nicely now. I can't wait to take that sucker out for a spin. It'll be a on/off road mountain climbing, river fording, corner huggin, crab walkin monster ...

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

So far the time lines are still vague and aspirational. When they can reliably make the castings and have a good battery their statements will be definitive. My 2017 S was going to be able to drive itself from LA to New York by the end of 2017. It’s one thing to be close and another to actually get there. I hope they get there by summer I just don’t see it yet.

It is not appropriate to compare manufacturing status with the status of FSD software. There is nothing in manufacturing a vehicle that Tesla hasn't experienced, but there is no one on the planet that has ever produced viable self-driving software. A better comparison would be the hardware underlying the FSD suite, but no one would likely disagree that that is fully functional.

This said, I happen to agree that being in the front of the line isn't necessarily a good thing. I am actually glad that the YouTubers and other Celebrities and so-called influencers will get theirs first.

 

[HaulingAss]

CT will be launched in part by RN number, when reservation process is complete and by geographical location. Neither of those is the whole control pattern and nobody has the capacity to double check their work.
an intentional grey area only exists for one reason

Have you seen Tesla let Youtube influencers cut the line on new vehicle releases previously?

Because I haven't. I suspect they will deliver Cybertrucks in much the same manner as previous new model releases.

 

[Mini2nut]

The Cybertruck marketing drip continues...

 

[ED_SFO]

It will prob be this time next year when we see the real demand for the CT. I don't think they will hit anywhere near 250k CT a year anytime soon. But can't wait for the parking lot to be filled with CT, and then at showrooms near by. Hopefully they offer test drives by July , August. Pricing will control demand.

 

[firsttruck]

In hail storm we will raise 3mm stainless steel Cybertruck with amour glass to maximum height and shield the inventory by placing it under the Cybertruck.

We ourselves will be in the Cybertruck instead of the house.

 

[RoboCybertruck]

It’s very likely 4/20 will be an earnings call and nothing more.

Though solid chance we’ll hear “Production will start on the Cybertruck later this quarter”…

Launch event will be closer to customer deliveries and after we see rows of Cybertrucks in the Giga Texas parking lot.

What is this years anticipated Cybertruck production?

 

[SparkChaser]

What is this years anticipated Cybertruck production?

It all depends on how the ramp progresses. Seems like Berlin has been ahead of shcedule. The Model Y is a good indication, but the CT seems like it could be much faster to full production. The bottle neck, last I heard was the 4680cells. But that seems to be improving as well. I would expect 1-2 hundred a month at best for a while but then who knows.

 

[Crissa]

What is this years anticipated Cybertruck production?

No one knows, outside of Tesla, and they would have wide ranging projections.

-Crissa

 

[RoboCybertruck]

I have 33 Cybertrucks reservations starting with the 33,002 truck produced. Hope to get at least one this year!?

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