Final Cybertruck Production Version: when will we see

HaulingAss

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Tesla’s new radar tech. They’ve lobbied to have the FCC keep the details confidential until March 7th. This is just coincidentally 6 days after Cybertruck Final Reveal Tesla’s March 1st Investor Meeting.

View attachment 15955


https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/ViewExhibitReport.cfm?mode=Sum&calledFromFrame=N&RequestTimeout=500&application_id=TAi5l5atHcj4G/IFPFuKbA==&fcc_id=2AEIM-1541584
It makes sense it might be radar technology, and I believe it very well might be. But nothing you posted confirms that.

Curious why you say it's radar tech (beyond just making an educated guess).
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Ogre

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It makes sense it might be radar technology, and I believe it very well might be. But nothing you posted confirms that.

Curious why you say it's radar tech (beyond just making an educated guess).
Mostly based on some breadcrumbs which seem to lead back to this story or rather the original filing on that story. The original filing date is the same, also both have the same letter requesting short term confidentiality. If you dig around, the FCC filings on the original RADAR story have a photo of the sticker which clearly identifies it as RADAR.

Could be a separate filing made on the same date. Maybe a new Starlink/ cellular antennae?

Honestly, the more curious thing is the timing. Typically companies file to keep these filings confidential prior to a product launch.

Even if it’s not RADAR, why have the details on this released on March 7th? Other possibility is changes coming to Model 3/ “Highland”. Maybe that’s more likely.
 

HaulingAss

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Mostly based on some breadcrumbs which seem to lead back to this story or rather the original filing on that story. The original filing date is the same, also both have the same letter requesting short term confidentiality. If you dig around, the FCC filings on the original RADAR story have a photo of the sticker which clearly identifies it as RADAR.

Could be a separate filing made on the same date. Maybe a new Starlink/ cellular antennae?

Honestly, the more curious thing is the timing. Typically companies file to keep these filings confidential prior to a product launch.

Even if it’s not RADAR, why have the details on this released on March 7th? Other possibility is changes coming to Model 3/ “Highland”. Maybe that’s more likely.
I forgot about that! Based on Elon's statements that article quoted, I would say it looks like Tesla might plan to use radar if it were high enough in resolution that it could be easily over-layed on the images from the front-facing cameras without creating new ambiguities.
 

Ogre

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I forgot about that! Based on Elon's statements that article quoted, I would say it looks like Tesla might plan to use radar if it were high enough in resolution that it could be easily over-layed on the images from the front-facing cameras without creating new ambiguities.
Also possible it is more about off-roading than FSD.
 

HaulingAss

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Also possible it is more about off-roading than FSD.
I suppose, although that seems like a lot of development effort at this stage of FSD development. I think Elon is focussed like a laser on getting FSD on the street fully developed.
 


Arctic_White

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Haha! I guess there's not much harm in dreaming!

But realistically, I think the upper and lower price limits are driven by two different things. Obviously, when the cost to produce rises such that they cannot be sold for the anticipated prices, the price has to go up to make production sustainable, assuming there is market demand at the higher prices. If not, the product is not viable if the manufacturer can't figure out how to produce it for less.

However, there is another dynamic at play when the cost to produce is much less than the anticipated price. To understand this dynamic, let's assume in some magical world it only costs $10K to produce a 320-mile 4X4 Cybertruck. Does that mean Tesla will say, "We want 30% margins so we will lower the price to $14,000"?

All of a sudden, people are emptying their piggy-banks to buy one and the truck becomes unavailable for 4 years or longer. It's unobtainable in any normal sense of the word. Scalpers are everywhere selling it for the true market value of $55-$60K to people who don't want to wait. People stop buying the Model Y because they can get 3 Cybertrucks for the same price and sell 2 of them and have money left over to burn.

Pricing the truck too low comes with a myriad of problems and creates untenable wait times for new customers, giving a bad customer experience. If Tesla knew they wouldn't have the batteries to put Cybertruck into production until 2023, they never would have revealed it as early as late 2019. But COVID happened and there was unexpectedly high demand for their other EV's.

Essentially, manufacturer's price their vehicles based upon what they think the market is willing and able to pay in the volumes they want to sell them at. If they over-estimate demand, they have to sell them for less, even if it means losing money on everyone they sell. But they will never lower prices too far below what the actual market value of the vehicle is. Basically, a limit on the number of batteries they can make or buy, whether it's due to limitations on raw materials or a limit on installed production capacity, will limit their ability to manufacture in high enough volumes to satisfy market demand if the price is too far lower than market value.

What this means for people with high reservation numbers is they want Tesla's ramp of 4680 batteries to happen without unexpected problems and for raw materials supply to grow rapidly to meet demand for ever increasing numbers of batteries.

Competing with vehicles for batteries is the utility scale energy storage market. It sounds like Tesla has essentially unlimited demand for multi-million-dollar Megapacks which can use any kind of batteries that are available. These are high margin sales in volume, so they compete directly with Tesla's ability to scale auto production.

Putting all of this together, there is absolutely zero chance Cybertruck will be sold for a song. Bbecause all trucks, including ICE vehicles, are much more expensive now than in 2019, there's not even much chance that Tesla will hit the prices they anticipated in 2019, regardless of their cost to produce. It's all about the batteries!

This same dynamic probably means the initial production will not include 500-mile varients (unless 4680 production ramp beats expectations). Tesla would rather sell more 300-mile versions than 40% fewer 500-mile versions.
Another brilliant and a thought-provoking post, which I generally agree with.

I don't see the 500-mile variant until batteries are fully ramped up, though I do see a middle-ground split-the-difference sorta deal at 400 miles, quad motor.

Price is the huge question mark, though. Price it too high, demand goes down. Price it low, demand is too high and wait times are out of control.

Tesla has repeatedly said that they will adjust pricing until they demand sort of equals supply. I expect various price changes with Tesla starting prices high initially and will lower them gradually over time.

The $40K cybertruck is still coming, but not any time soon.
 

greggertruck

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No, we haven't. At the very least we have not seen the final wiper or mirror setup, and most likely we have not seen the final windshield or rear window setup. Perhaps you meant the final dimensions which we probably have seen. We really haven't seen diddly on the interior, ever, and we have not heard anything about the suspension or braking except rumors. I doubt we will see it in April (fools or otherwise) either. We will see it when it starts rolling around and the drivers will likely 'accidentally' allow closer examination of some of these features.
We'll, how bout now haha
 

Jhodgesatmb

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We'll, how bout now haha
It is certainly true that this latest viewing is just the beginning, and seemed to open up as many questions as it seemed to answer, but moving in the right (and expected) direction. I was never worried about the lights; I recalled Elon saying that the bar lights would be in all trims, but my earlier comments remain valid.
 

Rutrow

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I’d love for the Cybertruck to be cleanable with a shop vac.
My '82 Bronco, with its vinyl seats and floorboards, was cleanable with a fire hose!!! It was a wonderful mudder so the ease of clean up was one of its greatest features.
 


HansonCT

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i agree it is weird that they are being so secretive and withholding so many details for something thats supposedly so close to production… Im gonna get that there will be a “relaunch” event in june (end of q2), and a “delivery event” in the late fall, like November or early december 2023. My rationale is that they are only going to have “beta trucks” ready in march… which is what we all thought they had when we saw the BAW and mirrors last year…
That is of course unless they push back production again (which it seems like they are already setting the stage to push back until 2024 based on the earnings call…)
So I'm new to Tesla, made my reservation a while ago. At what point will we see or find out about options and costs? Thought is others in the group may already a Tesla and have been through this before
 

JCERRN

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So I'm new to Tesla, made my reservation a while ago. At what point will we see or find out about options and costs? Thought is others in the group may already a Tesla and have been through this before
No one knows the “when” for sure, thats kind of the point of this thread, speculating the when.
As far as the what options and what cost? Likely will be a page on the tesla site that you click through and then place an order for with a deposit, minus your “preorder” cost of $100
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