Final Cybertruck Production Version: when will we see

[slomo]

Yes there is.

Less than 1% of the population can afford an $80k truck. Only a fraction of those who can afford it actually want a truck.

I seriously wish people would learn a little about economics and supply and demand before they start pumping out “Facts” about pricing.

Whats the F150 ASP?

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[Ogre]

Blue, no Yello Aaaaaaaargh

 

[Crissa]

Whats the F150 ASP?

$65k for the Platinum F150.

Not over $80k.

-Crissa

 

[slomo]

$65k for the Platinum F150.

Not over $80k.

-Crissa

And 800K units

So when Tesla hits 800K CT/year the ASP can be $65K

 

[Ogre]

And 800K units

So when Tesla hits 800K CT/year the ASP can be $65K

Ford does not sell 800k Platinum F150s/ year. They sell a few 10s of thousands. The overwhelming majority of F150 sales are around $40k. We know this because the average truck price is around $55k.

Less than 2% of the population can afford to buy $80k vehicles. Some small fraction of those people actually want pickup trucks.

 

[Crissa]

Ford does not sell 800k Platinum F150s/ year. They sell a few 10s of thousands. The overwhelming majority of F150 sales are around $40k. We know this because the average truck price is around $55k.

Less than 2% of the population can afford to buy $80k vehicles. Some small fraction of those people actually want pickup trucks.

While I agree with you, that chart doesn't include light trucks.

-Crissa

 

[slomo]

Ford does not sell 800k Platinum F150s/ year. They sell a few 10s of thousands. The overwhelming majority of F150 sales are around $40k. We know this because the average truck price is around $55k.

Less than 2% of the population can afford to buy $80k vehicles. Some small fraction of those people actually want pickup trucks.

-The CT is a supercab 4x4 competitor.
- 2% of american households is over 2 million
- the price of CT in 2023 is not necessarily the price in 2026

Lightning dual motor is $80K
Rivian R1T dual motor is $80K
The CT is a better truck.

 

[EV Rob]

Great discussion. One additional consideration driven home while strolling through an ICE car dealership yesterday. New cars had dealer markup of $5,000 to $50,000. That's on top of MSRP and another $3,000 in packs - clear shield, wheel locks, windshield treatment, touchscreen protector, LoJack knock-off. Not sure how much of that you could negotiate away.

MSRP isn't accurate for other brands. To compare the cost of a Tesla to other vehicles, you need to know what people are actually paying. Pre-lockdown, you could beat MSRP, sometimes significantly. Now you're lucky to get MSRP.

Avoiding that mess is a huge benefit of buying a Tesla. Tesla may change their pricing, but their history is that they are transparent about price, and you can be sure you are paying the same as ever other customer for the same car, at least today.

 

[charliemagpie]

I am not advocating higher prices, but we need to consider the Model Y is about to outsell the affordable Corolla.

If people feel it represents value, and they want it, they will dig deeper. The 2% could stretch into 4%.

The new 2% could be solely CT customers.

 

[Ogre]

-The CT is a supercab 4x4 competitor.
- 2% of american households is over 2 million
- the price of CT in 2023 is not necessarily the price in 2026

Lightning dual motor is $80K
Rivian R1T dual motor is $80K
The CT is a better truck.

Your numbers are irrelevant and… not even right. Base Ford is $56k and that’s dual motor. Dual Motor Rivian is $67k.

Those two brands sold about 1/10 as many trucks combined as what Tesla plans on selling.

If you are selling 10x the number of trucks, you need a lower price. Does not matter if it has “More features”.

 

[Ogre]

Great discussion. One additional consideration driven home while strolling through an ICE car dealership yesterday. New cars had dealer markup of $5,000 to $50,000. That's on top of MSRP and another $3,000 in packs - clear shield, wheel locks, windshield treatment, touchscreen protector, LoJack knock-off. Not sure how much of that you could negotiate away.

This is going away fast. My local Ford dealership is discounting most trucks $500 off MSRP and about 1/3 of their inventory is $50k or less. Weirdly, they have a F150 Lightning in stock and apparently for sale.

The auto pricing bubble has popped.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

-The CT is a supercab 4x4 competitor.
- 2% of american households is over 2 million
- the price of CT in 2023 is not necessarily the price in 2026

Lightning dual motor is $80K
Rivian R1T dual motor is $80K
The CT is a better truck.

The CT 'Duel' motor might be $69,999.99 ( Now that's a better deal/ better truck when that happens )

 

[Crissa]

The CT 'Duel' motor might be $69,999.99 ( Now that's a better deal/ better truck when that happens )

A 40% markup to a .99 (which Tesla avoids) so that the 'duel' (dual) motor is more expensive than the tri motor launched with?

The shame they'd be piled on would be massive. It would take them a decade of deeply slashed prices to get the public to think their truck wasn't still overpriced.

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Not sure any revealed prices will apply in 2-3 years when your reservation is tapped.


Comparing the high volume Cybertruck price to low volume trucks with boutique pricing gets you nowhere. Tesla is shooting for 500k+ trucks a year, Cybertruck’s competitors are mostly ICE vehicles.

We don’t have to guess about this. Tesla told us who their competition is.

They also told us that the target production volume is 250,000 CTs per year. We cannot pick and choose what they say that we are going to believe. I happen to agree with you that the competition is the full-sized ICE pickup market, so any price comparisons would be against ICE pickups, and the Tesla pricing was intended to be 'really' competitive with them.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I thought that this thread was about when we would see the Cybertruck and not about the prices. How come no matter what the topic is the thread always devolves into pricing, which no one knows anything more than what we started with, a comment from Elon that costs will have to be addressed, and a lot of guessing? The same people (including me) say the same things and then it gets dropped until the next thread. I am guessing that this will finally end when production begins (back to the original thread) and I will be glad to have it in the rearview mirror at last

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