Honoring Original Estimated Pricing

[CyberGus]

The last five years have a solid 25% inflation in total. Not nice but we have to deal with reality here. And that 25% is across the board, not industry specific.

Inflation increased by 8% in the 4 years preceding the 2019 Cybertruck reveal. In the 4 years since, it's been 18%. https://www.officialdata.org/us/inflation/2019?amount=1

Assuming that 8% inflation was already factored into Tesla future price estimates, then there is about 10% additional inflation over the reveal prices.

This brings the dual-motor from $49k to $54k, which seems reasonable.

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[Coolbreeze704]

Yes I realized the Cybertruck was priced to sell in 2022, and that's why I did allow for just under 2 percent inflation in my reply to Ogre in post #352,

Dual motor Cybertruck launch price: $50k.​

Inflation (slightly less than 2% annual): $5k.​

IRA Advanced Materials Production Credit: $4,600​

​

Inflation adjusted price to consumer: $50,400.​

IRA Consumer Tax Credit: $7,500.​

Final price to consumer: $42,900.​

because that's roughly where the inflation rate was between 2016 and 2021:

I did mention 2018 as a reference starting point in my previous posts, but that had nothing to do with the Cybertruck reveal specifically, because the incentives were for more Tesla models than just the Cybertruck.

I also think Tesla's pricing the Cybertruck to sell in 2022, was based on the stable roughly 2 percent inflation rate at that time, as it had been at that rate at least three years before their initial reveal.

I don't think we should limit ourselves to historical base rates, but rather always try to optimize and do better. We had a very nice trend just below the so called base rates in the five years leading up to 2021. If Tesla had limited their vision and standards to what establishment talking heads were squawking, or what historically legacy auto had been doing, then we would never even have the optimized Teslas of today, and there would be no reason for this site or forum. So I don't think we should always limit ourselves to history.

Receiving financial relief immediately after financial stress, is really nothing gained and simply a numbers game.

- ÆCIII

I am pretty sure I have a lock down method to gauge true inflation and predict Cybertruck Pricing.

Eggs!

Year​

Average Egg Prices by Year*​

Average Annual CPI for Egg**​

Egg Prices Adjusted for Inflation in 2022 Dollars​

2019​	$1.40​	203.867​	$2.02​
2020​	$1.51​	212.542​	$2.09​
2021​	$1.67​	222.074​	$2.21​
2022​	$2.86​	293.676​	$2.86​

Cyber truck will double in cost. to 100k for dual based on scientific research provided above. Feel free to close the thread now.

 

[CyberGus]

I am pretty sure I have a lock down method to gauge true inflation and predict Cybertruck Pricing.

Eggs!

Year​

Average Egg Prices by Year*​

Average Annual CPI for Egg**​

Egg Prices Adjusted for Inflation in 2022 Dollars​

2019​	$1.40​	203.867​	$2.02​
2020​	$1.51​	212.542​	$2.09​
2021​	$1.67​	222.074​	$2.21​
2022​	$2.86​	293.676​	$2.86​

Cyber truck will double in cost. to 100k for dual based on scientific research provided above. Feel free to close the thread now.

Yeah, that's what the chicken cartels want you to think

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Yeah, that's what the chicken cartels want you to think

Not saying I'm part of the cartel, but I'm not saying I'm not.

 

[Crissa]

Inflation increased by 8% in the 4 years preceding the 2019 Cybertruck reveal. In the 4 years since, it's been 18%. https://www.officialdata.org/us/inflation/2019?amount=1

Assuming that 8% inflation was already factored into Tesla future price estimates, then there is about 10% additional inflation over the reveal prices.

This brings the dual-motor from $49k to $54k, which seems reasonable.

That's uhh... well, not quite, but works as an estimate.

-Crissa

 

[HAL GALLUS]

Ford and Rivian have both somehow managed to survive launching their trucks with multi-year backlogs and launch day pricing. Granted Ford had the usual Stealership issues, but many **including some here on this site** were able to get Fords for launch pricing. For Rivian, 100% of current owners paid launch pricing.

This is **in spite of significant scalping of both**. Now we’re a little more than a year in and the used market is healthy and fairly normal with used prices a 5-20% under new just like every other vehicle. Zero reason to assume it will be otherwise with the Cybertruck which will have production 10x the other companies by end of the first year.

People will flip. We’ll survive.

If I read this right I think you are right.

 

[HAL GALLUS]

This is wrong.

Every new Tesla model has unprecedented demand in the early phases of production. Tesla ramps production to meet that demand. There is zero chance it will take Tesla 6 years to fill that demand because Cybertruck is specifically designed to to require less factory space to ramp to build in high numbers. That's how Tesla is able to offer such an advanced truck for the same prices legacy auto charges for overweight and out-dated flexi-flyers that guzzle gasoline.

I'm about 40K in the reservation line and expect I will take delivery of a Cybertruck with a VIN # showing it's about the 20-30 thousandth one produced. That's because some people who planned on scalping have multiple reservation numbers before me, but Tesla will only deliver one to each potential scalper before they sell me mine.

Yes, scalping happens, no it won't be a high-volume thing and no, it will not cause Tesla to raise prices, that's what the reservation system and Tesla's policy of not selling multiple vehicles to the same party is designed to do, prevent people from turning the re-selling of Cybertruck into a regular business. The price of Cybertruck will be the same, regardless of lots of scalpers or few scalpers.

There will actually be a very limited number of Cybertrucks available from scalpers which is why they will go for such high prices relative to that paid by reservation holders. Anyone who wants a Cybertruck without paying the higher prices to scalpers should make a reservation and get in line. I am even less concerned about early reservationists scalping their Cybertruck reservation than Tesla is. Tesla has the ultimate control over who they sell Cybertrucks to and that is by design and is not going to change.

In the Spring of 2018, Model 3 had about three years of reservation backlog but Tesla ramped production to high volume and burned through the entire original reservation list by spring of 2019. It only took one year. After that point, wait times were based on new reservations building up. Cybertruck might take two years to burn through the standing reservations at the start of prodction, not six. If you want a Cybertruck, and don't want to pay scalper prices, get in line now.

YES

 

[Ogre]

If I read this right I think you are right.

If you agree, it must be right!

 

[CyberGus]

That's uhh... well, not quite, but works as an estimate.

-Crissa

I’m always right-ish

 

[Ogre]

I’m always right-ish

Right adjacent.

 

[Ogre]

Model Y prices dropped back to $52,999. Roughly $3,000 more than when I bought mine 2 years ago. All Tesla models dropped $1000 - $5,000

It’s a pretty near perfect proxy for inflation pressures Tesla will see on the truck.

Model Y LR was same price as Cybertruck when it was announced. Increasing chance we’ll see something very near launch pricing.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

I hope so…

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