How many Cybertrucks deliveries in 2023 ?

TBONO

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there's no delay when production begins 2023 to ramp to volume in 2024. that's not new.
Uh OK. If that makes you feel good that 2023 and 2024 are the same I guess that’s fine for you. For me, it is another delay as 2024 was not part of the record until the last earnings call
It’s not just me look at some of the press on it. It’s pretty clear.

Heck what’s another year when you’re in 2024 for a product that was “launched” in 2019.
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jerhenderson

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Uh OK. If that makes you feel good that 2023 and 2024 are the same I guess that’s fine for you. For me, it is another delay as 2024 was not part of the record until the last earnings call

It’s not just me look at some of the press on it. It’s pretty clear.



Heck what’s another year when you’re in 2024 for a product that was “launched” in 2019.
I'm thinking that you aren't comprehending production start vs mass production. Even in June of '22 articles posted production was expected in the summer of '23, ramping up to mass production in '24. Nothing has changed.
 

TBONO

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I'm thinking that you aren't comprehending production start vs mass production. Even in June of '22 articles posted production was expected in the summer of '23, ramping up to mass production in '24. Nothing has changed.
I’m thinking you not are comprehending the difference between 2023 and 2024. I said send me some press showing otherwise and you sent me a press showing mass production 2023.

Yet mass production is now 2024 is that a delay? Yes, if you want to say it’s not, then that’s your number magic. Let me know when you get your truck.
 

Crissa

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I’m thinking you not are comprehending the difference between 2023 and 2024. I said send me some press showing otherwise and you sent me a press showing mass production 2023.

Yet mass production is now 2024 is that a delay? Yes, if you want to say it’s not, then that’s your number magic. Let me know when you get your truck.
I don't think you've shown a delay yet.

-Crissa
 


TBONO

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I don't think you've shown a delay yet.

-Crissa
Try googling: cybertruck production delay 2024.

It’s pretty obvious production is delayed, but for some reason not to many on this forum. Here’s what comes up.
Tesla Cybertruck How many Cybertrucks deliveries in 2023 ? 4B275C37-6DCE-4B16-A6AA-1BBFFACD3C49
 
OP
OP
charliemagpie

charliemagpie

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People don't understand mass production means 250,000+

So, like magic, they will pull out 5000 per week starting Jan 1st, or they will be gearing up through 2023. Far exceeding Fords and Rivian's numbers before the year is out.

Mate, put that into Google
 

Dids

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I expect ~80,000 produced in 2023. Production ramp will be much faster then previous vehicles and here are my reasons for thinking this.
1. Previous delays due to batteries constraint allows other things like HW4 and 4 wheel steering to mature longer making them less likely to cause production slowdowns. In other words new tech going into CT has production stock piles and kinks worked out...
2. Factory space. Tesla isn't starting production in a space constrained factory.
3. Shorter assembly line. Paint shop delete means less process that can slow production.
4. CT is first vehicle to ramp using structural battery pack. The model Y structural pack version has a shorter, faster assembly line.
5. First vehicle to ramp with megacasts.
6. Exoskeleton... Much easier to make simple lines align .
 

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I’m thinking you not are comprehending the difference between 2023 and 2024. I said send me some press showing otherwise and you sent me a press showing mass production 2023.







Yet mass production is now 2024 is that a delay? Yes, if you want to say it’s not, then that’s your number magic. Let me know when you get your truck.


you aren't understanding the difference between production and mass production. Again, the CT will be in production in '23 ramping to mass production in '24.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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I made a table a while back. We really don’t know what the run rate will be after the first year so it’s really hard to say. I think they are shooting for 500k/ year. If so you might be in year 3 or4 (2025-2026).

Really… it’s a giant crap shoot after the first 100k because it’s more about production rate than start date.

Oh… also, there is going to be some drop… you might end up 400k or so after people drop out.
Elon said last year that they were planning, then, on a run rate of 250K per year.
 


Crissa

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Try googling: cybertruck production delay 2024.

It’s pretty obvious production is delayed, but for some reason not to many on this forum. Here’s what comes up.
4B275C37-6DCE-4B16-A6AA-1BBFFACD3C49.png
Literally none of that is proof of a delay.

Notice how none of it quotes two similar things?

Elon said last year that they were planning, then, on a run rate of 250K per year.
"Originally' and 'initially'.

-Crissa
 

Rutrow

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you aren't understanding the difference between production and mass production. Again, the CT will be in production in '23 ramping to mass production in '24.
"Production" and "mass production" can mean whatever you want them to mean, depending on what point you're trying to make.
CyberTruck has been "in production" since the first parts were arranged to build the one they revealed in 2019.

"Mass production" can mean the first time the production line starts a second unit before the first unit is finished. If that doesn't fit the narrative you're wanting to convey, you can set some arbitrary number as the "start of mass production". 1000? 10,000? 50,000? 250,000? You can tell a lot about a person based on which number they choose.
 

Rutrow

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I just circled back to see what happened with the M3 in the first year.

The M3 launch, which Musk refers to this very day as "production hell", kicked off production at the beginning of Summer, July 28th of 2017. From July to October Tesla only delivered about 250 cars.

The last quarter of 2017 they delivered another 1500 M3s total. So, not even 2000 cars after 5 months of production.

The following quarter in 2018 Tesla delivered 10k M3s. Followed by,

- Q2 2018: 18k.
- Q3 2018: 56k
-Q4 2018: 64K

I think this is what we will see as a worst case scenario for the CT with 200-300 total by October... then a slow creep to less than 4000 by December. Then in Q1 2024 a ramp to 2000 per week then the Q2 Summer of 2024 obscene production numbers.
The big difference as to why Model 3 ramp probably won't be representative of the CyberTruck ramp is that the CyberTruck line won't have to be shoehorned into inadequate space at an already overcrowded factory. It took "tents" in the parking lot to get Model 3 to their desired capacity. GigaAustin has been purpose built to fit this vehicle's production line.

I'll predict a 5X ramp up this time around.
 

Crissa

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"Production" and "mass production" can mean whatever you want them to mean, depending on what point you're trying to make.
CyberTruck has been "in production" since the first parts were arranged to build the one they revealed in 2019.

"Mass production" can mean the first time the production line starts a second unit before the first unit is finished. If that doesn't fit the narrative you're wanting to convey, you can set some arbitrary number as the "start of mass production". 1000? 10,000? 50,000? 250,000? You can tell a lot about a person based on which number they choose.
No, they can't, and no, it hasn't.

Production cannot start until after the pre-production, production-intent units have completed certification.

Mass production is when weekly output goes over 3k/week.

This is the terminology that Tesla and other car producers use. Any other definition is, by definition, wrong.

*sigh*

Look, I know people wriggle around these, and it is hard not to be impatient. But it's only 19 months delayed, not a massive number of years.

-Crissa
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