How many Cybertrucks deliveries in 2023 ?

HAL GALLUS

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When was volume 2024?

First mention of that was this last update. So that’s a delay in my book and I’m not a short seller. Those saying this is not a delay are pushing the stock


just still waiting for my truck from my 2019 launch night order which I still don’t know much about.
they are more experienced with ramp ups so if they start making them in June or July they will have volume production by 2024. I just want to see it by July. its all up hill after that, and my cybertruck is on its way. I cant wait.
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jerhenderson

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they are more experienced with ramp ups so if they start making them in June or July they will have volume production by 2024. I just want to see it by July. its all up hill after that, and my cybertruck is on its way. I cant wait.
when the configuration opens we're almost there....
 

Rutrow

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No, they can't, and no, it hasn't.

Production cannot start until after the pre-production, production-intent units have completed certification.

Mass production is when weekly output goes over 3k/week.

This is the terminology that Tesla and other car producers use. Any other definition is, by definition, wrong.

*sigh*

Look, I know people wriggle around these, and it is hard not to be impatient. But it's only 19 months delayed, not a massive number of years.

-Crissa
pro·duc·tion | prəˈdəkSH(ə)n |
noun
1. the action of making or manufacturing from components or raw materials, or the process of being so manufactured

I don't write the dictionary, I just reference it. Go argue with Funk, Wagnalls, Webster, et al.

That Tesla and other automakers have their favored definitions reinforces my point. I haven't been conversing with Tesla, I've been conversing with posters on this forum, and they don't seem to agree what the definition is. If you can put a number on what all posters agree "mass production" means, I'd love to hear it.
 

HaulingAss

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Uh OK. If that makes you feel good that 2023 and 2024 are the same I guess that’s fine for you. For me, it is another delay as 2024 was not part of the record until the last earnings call
It’s not just me look at some of the press on it. It’s pretty clear.

Heck what’s another year when you’re in 2024 for a product that was “launched” in 2019.
Beavis and Butthead:
Ha-ha! You said, "Just look at the press on it." Ha-ha!

If I judged everything based on what the press said, I would be in a world of hurt instead of a happy place. You can make a lot of money once you understand half of what the press says about Tesla is either misleading or just plain wrong.

The bottom line:

Starting mass production at the end of 2023 is the same thing as mass production happening in 2024. Unless you want to count a few weeks of increasing numbers at the end of the year as "mass production". Elon was speaking to analysts who were wondering when to start modelling revenues. Obviously, if mass production doesn't start till the end of the 4th quarter, you don't model big volumes until Q1.
 
Last edited:

HaulingAss

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The big difference as to why Model 3 ramp probably won't be representative of the CyberTruck ramp is that the CyberTruck line won't have to be shoehorned into inadequate space at an already overcrowded factory. It took "tents" in the parking lot to get Model 3 to their desired capacity. GigaAustin has been purpose built to fit this vehicle's production line.

I'll predict a 5X ramp up this time around.
You will probably be disappointed because it normal for production ramps of new vehicles to take many months.
 


Rutrow

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You will probably be disappointed because it normal for production ramps of new vehicles to take many months.
Normal?!?

Normal rockets don't land*

*invoking the Godwin's Law of Tesla physics. Anytime anyone suggests that Tesla can't do something, landing rockets will eventually be mentioned! 🤣
 

jerhenderson

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Normal?!?

Normal rockets don't land*

*invoking the Godwin's Law of Tesla physics. Anytime anyone suggests that Tesla can't do something, landing rockets will eventually be mentioned! 🤣
normal rockets used to crash because no one cared to reuse them. reuse is what should be normal.
 

Crissa

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pro·duc·tion | prəˈdəkSH(ə)n |
noun
1. the action of making or manufacturing from components or raw materials, or the process of being so manufactured

I don't write the dictionary, I just reference it. Go argue with Funk, Wagnalls, Webster, et al.

That Tesla and other automakers have their favored definitions reinforces my point. I haven't been conversing with Tesla, I've been conversing with posters on this forum, and they don't seem to agree what the definition is. If you can put a number on what all posters agree "mass production" means, I'd love to hear it.
What age are you now to be told the dictionary isn't prescriptive or omniscient?

No, the factory is not in 'production' when it's not produced for sale.

-Crissa
 

Crissa

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That would be a strange assumption, but maybe?

We're pretty sure there's not more than a million or so pre-orders... The estimates are having trouble with all the other products that have been pre-sold since, so it'll be more and more difficult to figure out when.

If you're in the top 40k of orders over all, you're almost certainly in the first year of production.

-Crissa
 

Ogre

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The tracker is wildly inaccurate.

Useful for grabbing some information about reservations, but it’s just missing too many details to be useful. The fact that it’s unusably slo for many people doesn’t do it any favors.
 


Dusty

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The big difference as to why Model 3 ramp probably won't be representative of the CyberTruck ramp is that the CyberTruck line won't have to be shoehorned into inadequate space at an already overcrowded factory. It took "tents" in the parking lot to get Model 3 to their desired capacity. GigaAustin has been purpose built to fit this vehicle's production line.

I'll predict a 5X ramp up this time around.
A 5x ramp compared to the M3 would be nice. But I just don't have THAT much faith in the process. The same as the M3 was a new vehicle with things Tesla hadn't done before, so will the CT. I think there will be a few surprises that will need to be overcome along the way, and production will be a bit better than the 3 but slower than the Y... which is still damn good for everyone waiting.
 

TBONO

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Beavis and Butthead:
Ha-ha! You said, "Just look at the press on it." Ha-ha!

If I judged everything based on what the press said, I would be in a world of hurt instead of a happy place. You can make a lot of money once you understand half of what the press says about Tesla is either misleading or just plain wrong.

The bottom line:

Starting mass production at the end of 2023 is the same thing as mass production happening in 2024. Unless you want to count a few weeks of increasing numbers at the end of the year as "mass prodiction". Elon was speaking to analysts who were wondering when to start modelling revenues. Obviously, if mass production doesn't start till the end of the 4th quarter, you don't model big volumes until Q1.
Wow, this is so frustrating. Here’s today’s press with more misinformation must be all the short sellers pumping this through market watch

No delays here. No delays to see here. Everyone move along… Nothing to see here.

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/musk-most-cybertruck-production-delayed-into-2024/


Musk: Most Cybertruck Production Delayed Into 2024

Tesla CybertruckThe long-awaited Tesla Cybertruck won’t begin mass production in 2023 as promised. We’ve seen reports of recent progress on the much-delayed truck. But Tesla CEO Elon Musk told investors this week that a handful of Cybertrucks could roll off production lines this summer, but mass production won’t start until 2024.

Tesla doesn’t answer journalists’ questions, so Musk’s quarterly investor calls are often the best way we have to learn about Tesla’s plans. This announcement came during Musk’s fourth-quarter investor discussion.

What Is the Tesla Cybertruck?

The Tesla Cybertruck is a long-promised electric pickup truck that doesn’t resemble any truck on the market or any truck that has ever been produced. It looks like something from a 1980s science fiction artist’s depiction of the future.

A squat pentagon of brutalist lines and bare, unpainted sheet metal, it takes its inspiration from the movie “Blade Runner,” Musk has said. Tesla has promised impressive truck performance, including up to 14,000 pounds of towing capacity.

Tesla plans to sell the truck in one-, two-, and three-motor versions, the last of which could get from 0-60 mph in under 3 seconds.

Musk initially promised a starting price under $40,000, but after several years of inflation and supply chain problems, he has since said that’s out of reach. Tesla is hardly alone in that – Ford launched its own F-150 Lightning electric pickup with a sub-$40,000 price tag, but quickly raised the price to over $50,000.

Still, Tesla claimed more than a million people put down a $100 deposit to get in line for the truck.

Coming in 2021; No, 2022; No, 2023; No…

This latest production target is at least the fourth date Musk has promised.

When Musk announced the Cybertruck back in 2019, he promised it would be in production within two years. He later delayed that to 2022. Then delayed it again into 2023.

This latest announcement means the first trucks could leave factory doors this summer. But Musk cautioned investors, “I always try to downplay the start of production. It increases exponentially, but it is very slow at first.” The first examples of a new car rarely reach customers. They’re typically used for testing and marketing purposes and sometimes lent to journalists for evaluation.

Tesla makes its own path and doesn’t always follow industry traditions, so it’s always possible the company could deliver a few in 2023. But Musk told investors that volume production to fill orders will start in 2024.

Still, there are reasons to believe the Cybetruck is more real today than it was a year ago. Workers at Telsa’s Austin, Texas, Gigafactory were recently seen installing huge new casting machines. Musk confirmed on the call that those are intended for Cybertruck production.

Late to the Party it Organized

When Tesla first announced the Cybertruck, no other automaker had publicly discussed building an electric pickup. But you may have noticed that, above, we mentioned a Ford electric truck already in customers’ parking spots.

Ford’s F-150 Lightning is hardly alone. GMC already sells its Hummer EV. Startup Rivian has delivered hundreds of R1T pickups to customers. Startup Lordstown Motors has begun customer deliveries of its Endurance truck.

General Motors has announced both a Chevrolet Silverado EV and a GMC Sierra EV, which could reach production before the Cybertruck, pushing Tesla’s debut to seventh at best. Ram’s 1500 Revolution – which seats six and can follow its owner like a puppy – is likely further behind.

Sean Tucker
Sean Tucker is an author specializing in covering the automotive and energy industries from a consumer's viewpoint. As a reviewer and consumer advocate, his work has appeared in U.S. News and World Report, Yahoo Autos, MSN, Dub Magazine, and more. He's been an expert guest discussing car shopping on cable news. He has also served as both reporter and lead editor for energy and insurance industry... Read More about Sean Tucker
 

Ogre

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Most Cybertruck Production Delayed Into 2024
For the past 6 months or so Tesla has been saying middle of year 2023 is production start.

If production starts in July - September, very few trucks will be built in 2023. It takes 12-18 months for Tesla to ramp to 250k vehicles per year. Around the first of the year I said as much, well before this recent “Delay”.

Honestly don’t get the whinging over this.

Unless your reservation is under 100k, you are far more effected by the ramp speed than a 1-2 month change in start time. If your res is under 100k, congratulations, we’re getting our trucks in the next 18 months or less.
 

TBONO

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For the past 6 months or so Tesla has been saying middle of year 2023 is production start.

If production starts in July - September, very few trucks will be built in 2023. It takes 12-18 months for Tesla to ramp to 250k vehicles per year. Around the first of the year I said as much, well before this recent “Delay”.

Honestly don’t get the whinging over this.

Unless your reservation is under 100k, you are far more effected by the ramp speed than a 1-2 month change in start time. If your res is under 100k, congratulations, we’re getting our trucks in the next 18 months or less.
It’s not about me personally. My production numbers in the 1400s so I am quite ecstatic to be amongst the first to get one of these.

I just find it interesting that there is such a strong pushback here that there is another delay as it relates into volume production timelines.
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