I Cancelled my Cybertruck for the F150 Lightning

[firsttruck]

That's why I said an installed base of service centers isn't an advantage. There's no telling if they're going to be prepared or not.

Yup

For the next 3 years, 98%-99% of the vehicles sold by the dealers of legacy OEMs will be ICE.
Most of the EVs sold by legacy OEMs wil be sold by a small percentage of the legacy OEMs dealer networks. Most dealers of legacy OEMs will not be prepared to service any EV.

And it's not like they haven't been performing software updates on Fords for ten years. They have.

Yes, for 10 years, Ford might have been doing software updates but those were being done at the dealers. Ford customers can only do software updates for minor things like nav map and entertainment app. Customer could not do OTA updates for core functions of the vehicle.


The difference is like Nokia/Motorola/Blackberry feature phone vs Apple/Samsung smartphone.


----------------------------


There are electric cars and then there is a TESLA - BIG difference
Computers with wheels (Tesla) vs vehicle with electric drive-train (Ford, other competitors)
Aug 4, 2021
BestInTESLA

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[BigE]

What about Rivian? Will they have the same limitations or just plain lack of experience to compete with the R1T?

 

[Crissa]

No, I mean like, Ford has been having to do software updates for the console and engine computer repeatedly over the last decade... https://www.mlive.com/news/2019/07/...-again-due-to-incomplete-software-update.html

It's just straight up weird that a dealer wouldn't be able to.

-Crissa

 

[tmeyer3]

Charging
Who cares who you buy from its all the same.

Super duper false.

https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-fast-does-2022-ford-f-150-lightning-charge/
According to motorbiscuit, the lighting will get 15-80% charge at DC fast chargers in about 41 minutes. That's an abysmal fast charge for a brand new vehicle. With a 300 mile range, we can guesstimate somewhere around 190-250 miles in an hour. To get you up to speed (?), between 15-80% will get you around 800-1000 miles in an hour (250kW) at an equipped supercharger on any Tesla m3/y. CT is capable of 300kW, which is rolling out to superchargers everywhere at this very moment.

I'm assuming the charging will be similar to the mach-e and bottleneck to home charging speed at 80% and higher...
https://insideevs.com/news/503880/mustang-mach-e-dc-fast-charge-test/

To me, this means that I can expect a solid 80% max capacity for the majority of the truck's life, that's about where most EV batteries degrade to within 60k miles, then stick close to there for the long haul. So I get around 240 miles on the 300 mile f150, and on top of that only be able to reasonably fast charge to about 190 miles. Since you don't really want to get under 15% on a road trip, that's really only 160ish miles to use on a trip between chargers. Range matters, a lot, charging capacity is a close second.

I really hope, for Ford's sake, that they're underestimating the 300 mile range and that it will be able to charge faster than 115kW.... But it doesn't seem that way based on the data and the mach-e... ?

 

[Ogre]

According to motorbiscuit, the lighting will get 15-80% charge at DC fast chargers in about 41 minutes. That's an abysmal fast charge for a brand new vehicle. With a 300 mile range, we can guesstimate somewhere around 190-250 miles in an hour. To get you up to speed (?), between 15-80% will get you around 800-1000 miles in an hour (250kW) at an equipped supercharger on any Tesla m3/y. CT is capable of 300kW, which is rolling out to superchargers everywhere at this very moment.

First... don't charge your EV over 80% at a Supercharger unless you absolutely need that last bit of range. Tesla or otherwise. By the time you are at that point, even the Tesla's charge rate is dropped to 50kW and dropping fast.

But that doesn't save Ford here. Tapering starts even sooner than 80% and the Ford tapers faster than the Tesla. Here is the Tesla tapering curve.

Based on your video, at 50% SOC, the Ford is charging at 79kW versus 115kW or so for the Model 3/ Y. It's likely the Cybertruck will get to 80% charge faster than the Mach E, let alone the F150 Lightning.

This is a big part of why I switched from the 300 mile dual motor to the 500 mile tri motor Tesla. The tri motor Tesla will add 300 miles of range before the tapering gets bad. Charging the tri motor Cybertruck with a 250 kWh charger from 15% to 70% should take about 15 minutes and should add about 240+ miles of actual range. That is very close to ICE fill up times.

To me, this means that I can expect a solid 80% max capacity for the majority of the truck's life, that's about where most EV batteries degrade to within 60k miles, then stick close to there for the long haul. So I get around 240 miles on the 300 mile f150, and on top of that only be able to reasonably fast charge to about 190 miles. Since you don't really want to get under 15% on a road trip, that's really only 160ish miles to use on a trip between chargers. Range matters, a lot, charging capacity is a close second.

I sure hope my Model Y's range doesn't drop when it hits 60,000 miles. I've heard mixed stories of Tesla battery degradation over time and I thought most Teslas kept up to about 90% range until they were at 100k+ miles (or more). The 4680 "Million Mile Battery" is supposed to help.

Ford's are a giant question mark in this regard.

I definitely think range and charge speed are the Achilles tendon of the Lightning. Maybe for local contractors it's a non issue, but I want to go places.

 

[tmeyer3]

First... don't charge your EV over 80% at a Supercharger unless you absolutely need that last bit of range. Tesla or otherwise. By the time you are at that point, even the Tesla's charge rate is dropped to 50kW and dropping fast.

your point stands, the idea is to get what you need, not to fill up.

Based on your video, at 50% SOC, the Ford is charging at 79kW versus 115kW or so for the Model 3/ Y.

115kW is slow for a 3 or Y (or did I read that wrong?). You shouldn't have a problem with 250kW. They have them installed on all my long routes around the south west US. I'm usually higher than 50kW at 80%. Here's a photo from my phone at a low state of charge. I'll have to watch closer next time.

But this is why that range is so critical! 80% is a whole lot more in 500 miles than 300 miles. Either way, 115kW is QUICKLY becoming obsolete in DC fast charging.

I've heard mixed stories of Tesla battery degradation over time and I thought most Teslas kept up to about 90% range until they were at 100k+ miles (or more).

Yeah, 90% seems optimistic, but 80% is REALLY pessimistic. But I don't expect 90% retention from the mach-e or f150. They just buy batteries, they don't have an R&D and understanding of them like Tesla does.

Are you in an area with only 150kW chargers?

 

[Ogre]

115kW is slow for a 3 or Y. You shouldn't have a problem with 250kW. They have them installed on all my long routes around the south west US. I'm usually around 150kW at 80%. Here's a photo from my phone lol

Look at the chart I posted. Once you get past about 45% SOC, a 250kW charger is the exact same speed as the 150kW charger. You just get to 45% charge a lot faster.

Your photo is from when your car is much lower charge than that. Take a shot when it's charging at 50% SOC.

Yeah, 90% seems optimistic, but 80% is REALLY pessimistic. But I don't expect 90% retention from the mach-e or f150. They just buy batteries, they don't have an R&D and understanding of them like Tesla does.

Are you in an area with only 150kW chargers?

I've hit 3 different Superchargers and none of them are 250kW.

 

[tmeyer3]

I've hit 3 different Superchargers and none of them are 250kW.

Weird, I thought they had them pretty much everywhere now.

Yeah, you quoted me before I could fix my foot in mouth syndrome. ?

Time will tell all! I'm just struggling to see how Ford will have a competitive battery when their goal is to make an electric vehicle vs Tesla making a computer on wheels with in-house R&D battery tech.

I mean, the 4680 getting to market in less than 2 years will be a record breaker in speed, yet again, for Tesla. That's crazy! It's a significantly different battery.

I'm also a total Tesla fanboy. I'll be the first to admit that I'm at a higher than usual risk for bias--though I try very hard to avoid it.

 

[Ogre]

Weird, I thought they had them pretty much everywhere now.

Yeah, you quoted me before I could fix my foot in mouth syndrome. ?

Time will tell all! I'm just struggling to see how Ford will have a competitive battery when their goal is to make an electric vehicle vs Tesla making a computer on wheels with in-house R&D battery tech.

Seems like 4680 + structural pack is pretty far ahead of the competition? Really hard to say until it ships. The big number I'm curious about is curb weight and battery capacity. I think the Cybertruck is going to be a lot lighter than the F150 and have smaller batteries as a result.

Tapering makes weird driving incentives. For a long trip, you max out your charge then drive until it's down to about 10-20%, then charge up to whatever you need to get to your next bathroom or food stop plus a 10-15% buffer and no more. Then you are always charging at the highest rate and rarely wait longer than it takes you to use the bathroom and eat.

All of the Superchargers I use are small cities and towns in Oregon. Likely just to cover the north south corridors along 101, 5, and 97. I suspect when they start increasing the depth of the charging network they'll add some stops between with 250 kW chargers. I know there is one a couple hours south of here.

 

[tmeyer3]

Seems like 4680 + structural pack is pretty far ahead of the competition?

It's a HUGE deal. IMO from an engineering perspective, this is why:

• First completely in-house produced battery. Tesla moves fast. Further vertical integration will allow them to eventually break free of battery production delays that every single other car manufacturer is continuing to struggle with. They will no longer need the 2170 batteries they purchase from Panasonic, LG chem, and others.
• Significant weight reduction using a structural pack will catapult Tesla ahead in BEV range, again.
• dramatically reduces costs and allow Tesla to eventually sell electric vehicles for the same price as gasoline-powered ones.
• 16% increase in energy density. That's 16% increased range, not including the weight savings.

Tesla's attitude toward building the machine that builds the machine will have other automakers looking on in envy (and likely asking to buy parts from them) for at least another 20 years.

 

[Crissa]

They will no longer need the 2170 batteries they purchase from Panasonic, LG chem, and others.

The 2170 was Tesla's first in-house battery. Which they licensed to their contractors. Who then sell them to Tesla. The same will be true of the 4680.

-Crissa

 

[tmeyer3]

The 2170 was Tesla's first in-house battery. Which they licensed to their contractors. Who then sell them to Tesla. The same will be true of the 4680.

-Crissa

They produced the 2170 in tandem with Panasonic. It was made in a Tesla factory, but Panasonic makes it.
I have no doubt that Tesla will lean on other battery makers, but this is the first time they're producing a completely in-house battery. All the major battery makers are clamoring for a contract to make it and sell it to Tesla, which I'm sure they'll use! But for the first time, they have complete control of the battery design and manufacturing. No other car makers have this advantage, that I'm aware of.

???

 

[Ogre]

• Significant weight reduction using a structural pack will catapult Tesla ahead in BEV range, again.
• dramatically reduces costs and allow Tesla to eventually sell electric vehicles for the same price as gasoline-powered ones.
• 16% increase in energy density. That's 16% increased range, not including the weight savings.

Yeah, all of this is more-or-less why Cybertruck requires the 4680. And circles back around to why the Cybertruck should be the best value EV truck on the market.

Makes me wonder what's going to happen to Model Y pricing and features when they get 4680 online and into the Model Y. And the rest of the line eventually.

 

[tmeyer3]

@Crissa
I found this highly interesting:


This was BEFORE 4680, I think the 4680 is a lot of what they're speculating in the last half of this. They just don't know it yet.

Of course, they're all guessing at solid state batteries, but I think he hit the nail on the head before battery day: first Tesla is after making their own batteries on reliable chemistries. Solid state batteries are not a mystery any more, but they're not easily reproduceable. If there's anything that Tesla needs in order to bring sustainable energy to the mass market (their mission statement), it's an more affordable, highly available battery. To do that, Elon tends to just do it himself as can be seen with his history.
6 months ago, he asked the industry for more nickel. Nothing. So now Tesla is literally mining nickel...
Battery demand is higher than supply. So Tesla is making their own supply from raw materials.

The pattern will continue so long as Elon is in charge.

I have NO DOUBT, that if there was a stainless steel shortage right in the middle of the starship development, he'd just build a stainless steel mill. In fact, and you can call me crazy, but once they need to start building a fleet of starships for high-speed, low cost transportation all over world (and to Mars) they'll likely do just that.

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