Jordan Giesige (The Limiting Factor) : "We may not see the Long Range Version of the CyberTruck for a couple of years"

John K

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Interpretation, cancel your reservations and then re-reserve to be eligible for the LR variant. Trust me, I will do the same. As a gentleman, I will let all of you go first.

Edit: the faster you cancel and re-reserve, the earlier your placement in the re-reserve line. (Logic 🤔)
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firsttruck

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I went down that rabbit hole a few days ago

The TLDR is that 500 miles Cybertruck is definitely doable with current 4680s, the pack will have to be double stacked

But the important point is, the pack would always have been double stacks of cells for it to happen, 4680s would need to have double the energy for a single layer 500 mile Cybertruck to be a thing, so Tesla knew that from day one

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/7397077/
In 2025/2026 this double stacking might also be used for a 250-300mi Cybertruck with LFP CATL 4680s.
 

Ogre

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If you double stack less efficient cells, you end up increasing weight and decreasing cargo capacity.
 
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Rutrow

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If you double stack less efficient cells, you end up increasing weight and decreasing cargo capacity.
It's like the CyberTruck has its own version of the Rocket Equation. 🚀

"We'll just keep adding batteries until the range disappears completely." :oops:
 
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Rutrow

Rutrow

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Interpretation, cancel your reservations and then re-reserve to be eligible for the LR variant. Trust me, I will do the same. As a gentleman, I will let all of you go first.

Edit: the faster you cancel and re-reserve, the earlier your placement in the re-reserve line. (Logic 🤔)
The logic is sound. 🤓
 


firsttruck

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If you double stack less efficient cells, you end up increasing weight and decreasing cargo capacity.
Yes, both true however for many many potential Cybertruck buyers that live in warmer climates (Mexico, Southern half of USA) and who rarely/never tow trailers, a base model Cybertruck using LFP with 2,500lb payloads limit would work fine.

LFPs lower cost, more cycles, ability to daily charge to 100% without significant degradation, reduced fire risk would be welcome.

Many ICE Ford F-150s have maximum payload capacities of only 1,500-2,500lbs so Cybertruck with LFPs might still surpass ICE payload.

Tesla would benefit by greater raw material availability since the chemistry uses no cobalt nor nickle. I am pretty sure if Tesla scales Cybertruck to 500K units or more annually that a significant % will ship with LFP based packs.
 

hooptycam

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I went down that rabbit hole a few days ago

The TLDR is that 500 miles Cybertruck is definitely doable with current 4680s, the pack will have to be double stacked

But the important point is, the pack would always have been double stacks of cells for it to happen, 4680s would need to have double the energy for a single layer 500 mile Cybertruck to be a thing, so Tesla knew that from day one

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/7397077/
Ahhhhhhh… that sounds and feels much better.
 

hooptycam

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Ogre

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It's like the CyberTruck has its own version of the Rocket Equation. 🚀

"We'll just keep adding batteries until the range disappears completely." :oops:
Range will keep going up, cargo capacity will drop. You also need more and more expensive tires/ suspension/ etc to make it all work.

Eventually you wind up with a Hummer but with 700 mile range.
 

Ogre

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Yes, both true however for many many potential Cybertruck buyers that live in warmer climates (Mexico, Southern half of USA) and who rarely/never tow trailers, a base model Cybertruck using LFP with 2,500lb payloads limit would work fine.

LFPs lower cost, more cycles, ability to daily charge to 100% without significant degradation, reduced fire risk would be welcome.

Many ICE Ford F-150s have maximum payload capacities of only 1,500-2,500lbs so Cybertruck with LFPs might still surpass ICE payload.

Tesla would benefit by greater raw material availability since the chemistry uses no cobalt nor nickle. I am pretty sure if Tesla scales Cybertruck to 500K units or more annually that a significant % will ship with LFP based packs.
Maybe when they get the manganese cells they’ve been talking about going. Should be a nice middle ground between affordability and range while avoiding some of the minerals with questionable sourcing like Cobalt.



The nice thing about the manganese is they don’t even need to make it into rolls, they just spread it with a spatula, it’s called manganaise.

/s
 


JBee

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If you double stack less efficient cells, you end up increasing weight and decreasing cargo capacity.
Why? Increasing weight doesn't necessarily mean decreasing payload. That would depend on the engineering tolerances used in the structural design.

Cargo capacity is limited by the drivetrain/suspension and tyre components. It's likely for production that the single motor and the quad motor will have the same structural elements, but its possible it can still have the same payload because the design was made for the cell and drivetrain mass of the QM LR, and simply de-rated for the SM.

Also double stacking need not reduce efficiency (packaging or range) in comparison to a single stack, but less efficient (energy density?) cells will. How a "structural" double stack battery pack performs is another question.
 
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Ogre

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Why? Increasing weight doesn't necessarily mean decreasing payload. That would depend on the engineering tolerances used in the structural design.

Cargo capacity is limited by the drivetrain/suspension and tyre components. It's likely for production that the single motor and the quad motor will have the same structural elements, but its possible it can still have the same payload because the design was made for the cell and drivetrain mass of the QM LR, and simply de-rated for the SM.

Also double stacking need not reduce efficiency (packaging or range) in comparison to a single stack, but less efficient (energy density?) cells will. How a "structural" double stack battery pack platforms is another question.
If they don’t care about classification this is true.
 

Bill906

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Interpretation, cancel your reservations and then re-reserve to be eligible for the LR variant. Trust me, I will do the same. As a gentleman, I will let all of you go first.

Edit: the faster you cancel and re-reserve, the earlier your placement in the re-reserve line. (Logic 🤔)
Ha. No way I'm doing that. They'll probably run out of pens. 🖊
 

mhaze

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Just thought I'd jump in here and say that there was a big 'IF' in that statement. Which is that IF Tesla doesn't improve their energy density, then the LR C/T might be a couple years away.

However, I've also said that in other videos that there's a LOT of low hanging fruit with the 4680 packs in terms of energy density.

Interestingly, the pack option they put in the first C/T might come down to cell supply: That is, whether the 4680 line ramps are dragging or the C/T ramp is dragging.
I'm reminded of when there was truly a huge government led push, save the earthers right in line, toward curly worm style CFL lights. Of course other products came along and those events are forgotten. Predicting the future based on lithium as the material for batteries is a bit problematic, right?
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