Jordan Giesige (The Limiting Factor) : "We may not see the Long Range Version of the CyberTruck for a couple of years"

[mhaze]

Ha. No way I'm doing that. They'll probably run out of pens.

All the more reason to hurry and get canceled. Before they run out of pens. I can even donate some pens, since I LOVE to donate to worthy causes.

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[Ogre]

I'm reminded of when there was truly a huge government led push, save the earthers right in line, toward curly worm style CFL lights. Of course other products came along and those events are forgotten. Predicting the future based on lithium as the material for batteries is a bit problematic, right?

CFLs were the most efficient lighting for quite some time. The ruled the efficiency world for something like 10 years or more before LED lighting took over.

Nobody knew LED lighting would take over 10 years after CFLs came out, and even if they did, it was likely worth it for the energy savings in the mean time.

 

[Crissa]

CFLs were the most efficient lighting for quite some time. The ruled the efficiency world for something like 10 years or more before LED lighting took over.

Nobody knew LED lighting would take over 10 years after CFLs came out, and even if they did, it was likely worth it for the energy savings in the mean time.

Oh, some of us knew. LEDs were more efficient pretty much out of the gate.

But manufacturing them was another matter.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Oh, some of us knew. LEDs were more efficient pretty much out of the gate.

CFLs were introduced in the early 90s.

Reliable, good LED lights useful for lighting rooms and homes weren’t common enough for consumers until the late 00s and even then they were super expensive and mediocre.

CFLs had a good run and saved a lot of power in their 15+ year reign.

 

[mhaze]

CFLs were the most efficient lighting for quite some time. The ruled the efficiency world for something like 10 years or more before LED lighting took over.

Nobody knew LED lighting would take over 10 years after CFLs came out, and even if they did, it was likely worth it for the energy savings in the mean time.

I think you mean to say something like "CFL was the most efficient lighting style for the medium Edison socket", since they are only a version of a fluorescent, which had been popular for decades.

Nobody knew LED lighting would take over. Hmm, the first CFL that was commercially viable was in 1995. In 1997-1998 I was using outside floodlights with a grid of white LEDs (although IIRC they were $36 each). I thought CFL was a bad idea at the time, but there was a heavy push favoring them. In the absence of that, the LED takeover would likely have been much, much sooner.

Regardless, and even acknowledging the part that CFL played, it was a short lived phenomenon.

I'm just noting that it's likely not going to be the case that lithium continues forever as the dominant battery tech. The history of technology shows that when a shortage of material emerges, substitutes tend to rapidly be developed and deployed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon–Ehrlich_wager

 

[Crissa]

CFLs were introduced in the early 90s.

Reliable, good LED lights useful for lighting rooms and homes weren’t common enough for consumers until the late 00s and even then they were super expensive and mediocre.

CFLs had a good run and saved a lot of power in their 15+ year reign.

They were showing up in the 80s, though in two-part solutions. And some of the designs existed in the 60s, though they couldn't be very 'compact'. It was just an outgrowth of neon lighting, after all.

And while the white LED wasn't invented until '95, the tri-color LED was already invented and more efficient than fluorescents. It was only a matter of time someone mixed a blue with phosphor to make white. As someone who's been making things with LEDs since her father gave her an LED calculator at his death in the 70s... It was super-obvious.

Sometimes the gap between technologies isn't really big enough for that bridge to survive very long. NMC car batteries might be one of them. Or they might not!

-Crissa

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