Keeping Expectation Grounded

[SpaceYooper]

While we all wish the Cybertruck will be 49k for a dual motor and 69k for a tri-motor. Lets keep our expectation realistic. Here is a list of things that I feel that could be the worst case scenario.


- FSD won't be enabled at launch, will come at a later software update
- No GPU in MCU, so the basic 3/Y system. No steam
- It might not be 4680 battery, there is the chance of using 2170 according to some rumors to accelerate the production ramp.
- No 2nd screen for the rear
- Manual rear gate
- Manual Frunk

I do hope when the Cybertruck is fully revealed, none of these predictions will come true. But would you be disappointed if any of the above came true?

I don't know if disappointed is the word I'd use, but I would not purchase it if either of the following were true.
- $79k starting price for the Dual Motor Variant (I have a CT3 reservation...you're essentially saying I should expect to pay over $100k; to which I say no effing way)
- lower than expected range (Again, 500+ or bust for me, nothing else will be considered)

Regarding...
- FSD at launch...I'm not sure how much I care. I reserved mine with FSD, but meh
- No GPU; no steam. Don't care
- Battery other then 4680, I don't really care. I only care about range and battery longevity. But I think there is 0% chance any CT will be delivered with anything other then the 4680.
- 2nd screen; don't care; never expected it
- Manual rear gate; don't care; will be like every other truck I've owned
- Manual frunk; don't care; will be like every other hood on a truck I've owned...except that it opens to more storage.

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[Arctic_White]

I wish there was a thumbs down option for some of these posts!

There is. It's called the laughing emoji!

 

[rudedawg78]

Those are confirmed already, so it's not out of expectation.

The lack of a 6th seat has not been confirmed yet. Some images we have seen still look like it is possible.

Edit: Also, FSD will be available at launch as Tesla just announced what version of FSD is going on the HW4 vehicles. Additionally, like @SpaceYooper stated, you are alluding to the tri-motor being over $100K with your acceptance of a 50% increase in dual-motor price.

 

[newwave1331]

The easiest way to prevent a lot of flipping:
Tesla knows who owns their vehicles. Only allow 1 cybertruck order per buyer each month. As soon as a flip (early transfer of ownership) is detected, they could cut that person off until the preorder list is cleared. Sure a handful of early buyers will cherish the quick profit of one cybertruck over owning one for 3-5 years.

We still don't know what they are doing with all these cybertrucks being transported now. The the most expensive early flips will be to other manufacturers or companies like Lean Design (Sandy Munro) for rip down. Maybe Tesla offers to sell production candidates to them directly for $250,000. They wont care about the frunk/doors being misaligned if they are just going to do some quick testing and then ripping it apart. Once you take these initial buyers off the table, how many regular buyers are going to pay >100% sticker price?

As for pricing:
A tri motor 500 mile truck under $80k wont happen in the first year or two, IMO. If they are truly building for volume, we need to see dual motor come in around $55-65k. If humors of dual and tri motor getting the same pack size early on, we could see a tri-motor with the medium sized pack for under $80k. Tesla rated range of ~350mi should be a minimum for a consumer truck. Throw on some all terrain tires and some highway driving, and that truck will be below 300 miles.

 

[rudedawg78]

Floating Cybertrucks will be available, but not flying.

 

[Gurule92]

Pricing forum blackout!!

 

[HaulingAss]

Let's say you're right and Tesla sells them for $50-60K. Most of the first 50K vehicles would be flipped for huge profits due to pent up demand. Tesla is not going to happily pass this value on to the consumer. Rivian was forced to do this because they are a start up and couldn't weather the backlash without running the risk of folding. Tesla has no such worry, and the fed rebate soon being point of sale makes it even easier for them.

In case you haven't noticed, their pricing is volatile, and is directly related to their supply volumes. I nearly bought a Model Y LR for $68K during the pandemic. That same vehicle is now ~$52K, less than a year later. These types of swings are going to be the norm for Tesla, as new hyped models come online and older ones see falling demand.

Or I guess you could just keep going with, "Nuh-uh, because Elon said". His credibility is gold these days.

What a silly comment. It's normal for car prices to fluctuate with economic conditions and seasonal variations to balance supply and demand. It has nothing to do with Elon's credibility (which I find to be very high).

Tesla's fluctuations are just more visible because they always tell you the real price at any given time. Other manufactures mark it with a high price and then offer incentives like thousands of dollars cash back, zero percent financing and large discounts (or the dealerships mark them up thousands above MSRP). And there is nothing you can do about it. It's normal for one buyer at a dealership to pay $5,000-$10,000 more or less than another buyer at the same dealership for the exact same configuration, on the exact same day!

And you think Tesla's pricing is somehow less predictable? LOL!

The business practices of legacy auto and their dealerships are why so many new car buyers find the process of buying a new vehicle so distasteful.

 

[evazquezcu]

It amazes me how people come up with massive increases in price, without even a thought of what happened when Rivian tried to do that, and got a massive backlash. Only to turn around and change their mind and tell customers they made a mistake and were going to honor the prices they had signed up for. Rivian's stock got hit for almost 40% in a week of trading. You gotta know that Elon, and Tesla were watching carefully. This is why he's been dropping hints, and it really wouldn't surprise me one bit, if they watch this forum to measure feelings.

I'm not saying they won't try to increase the prices in some way. But all this speculation is BS!!

This is the way

 

[Engi_Nerd]

What a silly comment. It's normal for car prices to fluctuate with economic conditions and seasonal variations to balance supply and demand. It has nothing to do with Elon's credibility (which I find to be very high).

Tesla's fluctuations are just more visible because they always tell you the real price at any given time. Other manufactures mark it with a high price and then offer incentives like thousands of dollars cash back, zero percent financing and large discounts (or the dealerships mark them up thousands above MSRP). And there is nothing you can do about it. It's normal for one buyer at a dealership to pay $5,000-$10,000 more or less than another buyer at the same dealership for the exact same configuration, on the exact same day!

And you think Tesla's pricing is somehow less predictable? LOL!

Brushing aside the always potent "LOL!" for a moment, there is really no historical precedent for the overnight $13K+ price drop that Tesla rolled out this year on the Model Y. Many dealerships found themselves severely underwater on used Tesla inventory, and as a result, are now refusing to buy used Teslas. Some might call that "volatile".

Regarding your commend about it being normal for auto prices to fluctuate with rebates and incentives, that is an excellent point, and most certainly not at all obvious. I think I shall print it out and put it on the fridge. "Look honey. I found untold wisdom on the internet today".

 

[HaulingAss]

Brushing aside the always potent "LOL!" for a moment, there is really no historical precedent for the overnight $13K+ price drop that Tesla rolled out this year on the Model Y. Many dealerships found themselves severely underwater on used Tesla inventory, and as a result, are now refusing to buy used Teslas. Some might call that "volatile".

Regarding your commend about it being normal for auto prices to fluctuate with rebates and incentives, that is an excellent point, and most certainly not at all obvious. I think I shall print it out and put it on the fridge. "Look honey. I found untold wisdom on the internet today".

I already put your post onto the fridge with the comment, "Look honey, I found another useless post on the Internet from someone who doesn't know what they are talking about".

Her only comment as she crumpled it up and threw it in the circular file was, "Yes, but those are a dime a dozen."

I'm not sure why you have a problem with Tesla's transparent pricing that is used to match supply and demand. That's how they keep their production running full-steam ahead and is a major reason why they make more EV's than any company in the entire world, why they have the best-selling car in the world, and why they can bring such value to new car buyers. This is a good thing unless you make your money extending the age of combustion as long as possible.

Some shareholders wanted Tesla to cut production and keep prices high. Tesla wisely decided to pass volume efficiencies onto the customer so they could sell as many as possible at lower prices. Sure, this upsets their competition comprised mostly of combustion cars that send toxic gases out their tailpipes, but I think that is maybe the wake-up call that their game of running earth into the ground for their own profit is coming to an end!

If Tesla kept prices high, and cut production, there is a very good chance that the "no new ICE sales mandates" would be delayed. We can't go to 100% electric unless manufacturers continue to ramp EV production!

This should be common sense and I can't understand the basis of your complaints. Lower prices for more high quality EVs are good for consumers! I hope Tesla continues to increase production volumes and lower prices further in the next couple of years! That will take care of all those people that complain Tesla can't sell the Cybertruck for less than the smaller Model Y. The problem is solved if the price of the Model Y continues to come down!

 

[VR Driving]

The lack of a 6th seat has not been confirmed yet. Some images we have seen still look like it is possible.

Edit: Also, FSD will be available at launch as Tesla just announced what version of FSD is going on the HW4 vehicles. Additionally, like @SpaceYooper stated, you are alluding to the tri-motor being over $100K with your acceptance of a 50% increase in dual-motor price.

Elon already stated that the smaller size of the production truck won't be able to accommodate the 6th seat in the front row.

Each model of Tesla requires its own calibration for FSD and AP, so it is very unlikely FSD will appear with the launch firmware, Radar-less Model 3/Y did not get parking sensors until a software update months after launch. I believe the Tesla Semi still doesn't have AP activated for this very reason. They are going to need more Cybertruck on the road to calibrate AP/FSD before rolling it out to everyone.

 

[VR Driving]

Not sure why people get so aggressive with their pricing cope. There is essentially zero chance the dual motor comes in under $70K as Tesla is not going to leave a giant chunk of Fed rebate money on the table just to please fanbois. They can afford to lose more than half their reservations and still be supply constrained for years to come. 100 kwh pack + air suspension + 4WS is going to be big money, regardless of lack of paint.

We should hope for the 2170 battery as it's currently a superior cell.

I expect the tail gate will be manual but the frunk will be powered.

All "luxury" features from Model X and S will be absent to reduce costs due to CT being expensive and hard to build. No GPU, no driver display, no rear display, no active sound cancelling, etc.

Range with Tesla is always a bit of a joke. They can say whatever number they want, but it will likely only get similar or slightly better range to the Model Y LR on the highway, ~ 260 in summer and far less in winter.

I am personally just hopeful they include the HEPA filtration, which is one of my favorite features on our Model Ys.

It's nice to hope for the Cybertruck to be sold at around 50k. I think that day WILL come, just not at launch. When Tesla is able to produce 500 trucks daily, it won't be expensive that is for sure. But when they are producing only 10 a day, it won't be cheap. Giga Texas's currently planned capacity is around 700 trucks a day.

 

[SlegMD]

Tesla is preparing to mass produce the CT. If Tesla sells the cyber truck at 100k it will run counter intuitive to their production plans. Compare the MY & MX.

 

[VR Driving]

It looks like there is a higher chance the launch Cybertruck will be a dual motor with the recent confirmation that the dual motor variant exists.

also, the rear screen seems like a confirmation as the base Model 3 Highland gets it as well. So it makes little sense for a newer higher price model to not receive the same treatment.

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