More Tesla price cuts === cheaper Cybertruck (6 oct)

[Gurule92]

The line **is** long.

There are 2 ways they can reduce it.

• Deliver trucks as fast as possible.
• Raise prices so 90% of pre-orders cancel. Then lower prices again so you can actually sell trucks.

Rivian tried the second tactic… worked a charm.

Lol you're not wrong but my convo about the lines being an indicator of demand was about currently in production vehicles.

Someone was saying demand is low because the lines are short. I said it wasn't a good indicator because even if demand is steady, increased production will make the line shorter.

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[Deleted member 3316]

The line **is** long.

There are 2 ways they can reduce it.

• Deliver trucks as fast as possible.
• Raise prices so 90% of pre-orders cancel. Then lower prices again so you can actually sell trucks.

Rivian tried the second tactic… worked a charm.

This does highlight Teslas major advantage.
Rivian raised prices because they are struggling to survive. Tesla are not raising prices to gain profitability, they are raised to match the market clearance price.

 

[cvalue13]

Sanity check about line “length”

Tesla reports a couple of million reservations, gross

But what is the relevant line length, net?

I take the relevant length, that informs “initial” prices and scalpers, etc., to be potentially a fraction of the headline number. Especially if, as many believe, for the first year or more Tesla will only produce the top trim.

• Reduce the gross headline number by all non-U.S. reservation holders and that headline figure surely plummets.
  
  
• Then, among only that relevant U.S. buyer base, further subtract those unable to buy the top trim, which is statistically a huge portion of the reservation base (especially given financing/interest rate pressure since 2019 - not to mention potential lack of all or part of any tax credit)
  
  
• Subtract duplicate/multiple orders
  
  
• Subtract further people who have simply moved on, are dissatisfied with the released product, never had an intent more serious than a $100 refundable, or whose view of Tesla/Elon have changed since 2019 (they exist)

None of this to put a hard number to it, but instead only to inject that people use the headline gross reservations like a hard number - but it ain’t

What the CT pricing is, in 2024, is going to be relevant to only a fraction of the total reservation holders.

That still leaves plenty of relevant reservations by U.S.-based, wealthy, still interested, etc., buyers for what production Tesla will be capable of putting out in 2024/5

But on release, Tesla is probably not needing to manage its MSRP decisions to all these factors of global demand for all trims.

 

[TBONO]

https://news.google.com/articles/CB...cnk_aWQ9OTg1MDcwNjU?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en

Interesting read especially on the pricing and market sentiment. It definitely supports premium pricing for sometime

Unfortunately not much reference to cybertruck upcoming manufacturing start

And another release on Ford lightning prices that just came in:

https://news.google.com/articles/CB...WQtZm9yLW5vdy9hbXAv?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en

 

[John K]

I have on good authority, pricing will be variable.

1. Those who think the price will increase will pay more.
2. Those who think the price remains the same will pay reveal pricing.
3. Those who expect a price decrease will pay less.

Everyone wins.

4. Those who will get a pen must negotiate

 

[cvalue13]

And another release on Ford lightning prices that just came in:

that article just came in, but those price increases are nearing 3 weeks old

nonetheless, the Lightning is a poor analogue or weathervane for truck pricing

the Lightning is by plan a low production, temporary, specialty vehicle. Ford is not looking to achieve substantial market penetration with this truck, and they don’t intend to produce a lot of them for a long time. So I’m that framework, you lever demand with pricing, straightforward.

That framework seems 180° inapposite of the CT plans/desires.

the Ford analogue will have to wait for 2025 ground-up BEV platform truck, which Ford intends to be a mainline model offering at scale. We’ll see

 

[Gurule92]

that article just came in, but those price increases are nearing 3 weeks old

nonetheless, the Lightning is a poor analogue or weathervane for truck pricing

the Lightning is by plan a low production, temporary, specialty vehicle. Ford is not looking to achieve substantial market penetration with this truck, and they don’t intend to produce a lot of them for a long time. So I’m that framework, you lever demand with pricing, straightforward.

That framework seems 180° inapposite of the CT plans/desires.

the Ford analogue will have to wait for 2025 ground-up BEV platform truck, which Ford intends to be a mainline model offering at scale. We’ll see

This might be your shortest post. I'm here for it lol

 

[cvalue13]

This might be your shortest post. I'm here for it lol

Guilty as charged!

 

[TBONO]

that article just came in, but those price increases are nearing 3 weeks old

nonetheless, the Lightning is a poor analogue or weathervane for truck pricing

the Lightning is by plan a low production, temporary, specialty vehicle. Ford is not looking to achieve substantial market penetration with this truck, and they don’t intend to produce a lot of them for a long time. So I’m that framework, you lever demand with pricing, straightforward.

That framework seems 180° inapposite of the CT plans/desires.

the Ford analogue will have to wait for 2025 ground-up BEV platform truck, which Ford intends to be a mainline model offering at scale. We’ll see

Good points ,
that make sense especially since I don’t think they have a path to profitability on the lightning from what it appears so would make sense the 2025 platform is what CT started with from the top priority from a design intent (low cost to manufacture).

Let’s hope they both scale output. I think the pie is way way bigger for an EV truck than many may be thinking. I think there’s a lot of people that would like a truck but don’t buy because of the fuel consumption. In addition to the already huge truck market this would , expand it / new category. Who moved from SUVs or cars to a EV truck.

Is there any data or survey how many reservation holders/buyers of a CT or lightning are actually coming from a full size ice truck? I would not be surprised if it’s less than 50%

 

[cvalue13]

Is there any data or survey how many reservation holders/buyers of a CT or lightning are actually coming from a full size ice truck? I would not be surprised if it’s less than 50%

I don’t know if good data, but anecdotal data from the Lightning forum suggests it makes for a good number of converts

but another category worth considering: folks who have had trucks for decades but increasingly are leaning away for fuel/related reasons. Declining truck sales the past few years seem in line with this.

Electric trucks keep them in the category. Ask me how I know

that said I was able to get the Lightning at original pricing, plus full fed and state rebates - I personally wouldn’t have bought a Lightning at current pricing. Not that it’s not worth it still, but my personal willingness would have been chilled.

 

[Scott Beall]

Elon is not some right wing nut job, the problem is both sides say sensible things and absolutely stupid things equally. Elons feed is just weighted towards one side because that is the side that needs convincing of a transition to sustainability. The tribalistic nature of public discourse means he needs to be seen to be picking a side.
He’s not….

Yes!

Look at what he's doing. The culture in the USA is polarizing on so many issues these days. You're in good standing with Team A if you hold their set of beliefs. Same with Team B. Look at the foolishness around beer brands this week. People's identities are tied up in their brands. This isn't new; Jagger said "he can't be a man cause he doesn't smoke the same cigarettes as me" back in the 60's. I just think the judging is much worse than it has been.

EVs have been branded into the tree-hugger camp. Elon can't obtain his objective of a carbon-emissions free world selling only to that team. He needs to sell EVs to fast-car, carbon burning, big engine folks too. Those folks who wouldn't be caught dead in a Prius. So he makes really cool, really fast, electric cars. but that doesn't get it done because Team B still doesn't want to identify with EVs.

So Elon changes the game. He buys Twitter and makes Team B type observations. And seems to take some Team B positions. This opens up some Team B minds and now they're looking at the EV PICKUP TRUCK.

So hopefully Tesla will transcend the Team AB division and everyone will be comfortable with the brand.

Go Team T!

 

[cvalue13]

CAN WE ALL JUST REPETITIVELY POST “@***** IS RIGHT” ON ALL THESE THREADS?

@***** ’s original thread was locked down.

He made 3-4 more threads all on ~same topic.

He’s taken over 2-4 more threads, for being close to “his” topic.

He’s used fabricated ChatGPT responses as support for his topic.

He’s posted website “articles” as support, not mentioning that he wrote the article.

In those articles, he’s cited his own forum posts here as support, not citing himself as author of the posts.

He’ll stop at nothing.

CAN WE ALL JUST POST “@***** IS RIGHT” REPETITIVELY ON ALL THESE THREADS?

 

[Scott Beall]

LOL Just saw that Fox will be airing a two-part interview with Tucker Carlson and Elon tonight and tomorrow.

To bring my last post to relevance with the thread, Tesla has flexibility on what profit it needs from the Cybertruck because they have two goals: Sell a lot of trucks and change the image of EVs so as to expand the market. It could be (but won't be) a loss leader product. Their strategy is far beyond this truck.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

CAN WE ALL JUST REPETITIVELY POST “@***** IS RIGHT” ON ALL THESE THREADS?

@***** ’s original thread was locked down.

He made 3-4 more threads all on ~same topic.

He’s taken over 2-4 more threads, for being close to “his” topic.

He’s used fabricated ChatGPT responses as support for his topic.

He’s posted website “articles” as support, not mentioning that he wrote the article.

In those articles, he’s cited his own forum posts here as support, not citing himself as author of the posts.

He’ll stop at nothing.

CAN WE ALL JUST POST “@***** IS RIGHT” REPETITIVELY ON ALL THESE THREADS?

Defensive much?
You got that shut down with your continual Shitposting.
What you afraid of?
If you’re not here for a discussion why are you here?

I don’t want confirmation bias I want honest steelmaning of the proposal. Which I will never get from @cvalue13, @Crissa, @Ogre @HaulingAss because they are threatened at the thought of not being able to profitably sell their multiple reservations.

If this proposal wasn’t so threatening why the vehement opposition, derision, vitriol and logical fallacy?

So threatened by a hypothetical. Guilty conscience me thinks.

 

[Ogre]

I don’t want confirmation bias I want honest steelmaning of the proposal. Which I will never get from @cvalue13, @Crissa, @Ogre @HaulingAss because they are threatened at the thought of not being able to profitably sell their multiple reservations.

You realize that you have now accused 4 of the biggest fans (including @CyberGus here) of the truck of wanting to ditch it as soon as they get it? Do you realize how ridiculous that is?

Most of us HATE your idea because the idea of selling trucks to people who have no passion for this vehicle before us pisses us off. We’ve all made this very clear.

You accuse others of insincerity and not reading what you say repeatedly yet you are so fucking clueless about the motivations of those around you that you are tossing this kind of bullshit around.


Literally every time I pop you off my ignore list you quip with something lame like this which makes me regret the choice almost instantly.

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