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Green-Mario

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I get that you really want to have this exclusive maximum nerd-cred truck. But you don’t seem to grasp what Tesla’s goals are. Nor do you seem to get the very basics of supply and demand curves.

You are even mis-stating the existing electric truck market. Most electric trucks sell for under $100k. Look at Ford’s lineup. Look at Rivian’s. You can get trucks spec’d that high, but it’s hardly the norm.

You cannot sell millions of truck for $100k when the vast majority of truck buyers only make $82k/ year. There aren’t enough nerds out there looking for a status symbol to support the kind of volume Tesla wants either. I am a nerd. I appreciate the nerd appeal, not an insult. I can also afford a $100k truck. But white collar/ nerd crowd isn’t going to support this vehicle.
If not $100K what about $65k? With a $100k top trim? You are arguing with me about something I am not... I am talking about the launch vehicle, and the prices of the Top spec CT... you are talking about 20 million EVs a year run rate and the goal of Tesla by 2030. Today, Tesla is making $$ at an average selling price per vehicle of $65k, and massive profit margins. Tell me, why would Tesla rake in 30%+ profit margins in their goal was to give away EVs as cheap as possible?

 

MrKashima

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I suspect a lot of the people flipping the truck will be the same ones who think its going to be an expensive status symbol. They’ll buy it, enjoy the novelty of having the only one on the block for a few weeks, then realize how much of a pain in the ass it is to own a mega truck.

This is an article that got truck buyer demographics from Ford (Tesla’s target audience for the Cybertruck).



That’s average household income… not individual income.

How many people who live on $82k per year are going to be able to afford a $120k truck?

I know I know… The Cybertruck is going to fabricate a whole new, massive 250k/ year buyer base of white collar high income buyers…

The number of mental hoops you gotta jump through to make these a six figure base Cybertruck price work is mind boggling.
Ogre makes a really good point. Ok folks let’s be real. At $80k a year, you’re getting $2k a paycheck give or take.

Lets say you have $30k for a down on that $100k Mac daddy of a truck, or better yet for that $130k price other people are the throwing around.

So that’s $1100-1600 a month plus insurance on a $100k vehicle, that won’t be cheap.

So what you’re saying is that there’s lot of folks at $80k a year that are willing to spend nearly half their income to pay for a truck?

Come on now….
 

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If not $100K what about $65k? With a $100k top trim? You are arguing with me about something I am not... I am talking about the launch vehicle, and the prices of the Top spec CT... you are talking about 20 million EVs a year run rate and the goal of Tesla by 2030. Today, Tesla is making $$ at an average selling price per vehicle of $65k, and massive profit margins.
Tesla has almost always launched their second trim within 3-6 months of the first. For the Model 3, the 3rd trim was available within the first year.

Tell me, why would Tesla rake in 30%+ profit margins in their goal was to give away EVs as cheap as possible?
Tesla‘s goal isn’t to make EVs cheap.

Their goal is to electrify the auto industry. They price their cars at whatever they need to in order to sell every single one they can manufacture. They want to be producing 20m vehicles/ year by 2030. Their margins are where they are because they have pursued greater and greater economies of scale and have relentlessly driven costs down.
 

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Ogre makes a really good point. Ok folks let’s be real. At $80k a year, you’re getting $2k a paycheck give or take.

Lets say you have $30k for a down on that $100k Mac daddy of a truck, or better yet for that $130k price other people are the throwing around.

So that’s $1100-1600 a month plus insurance on a $100k vehicle, that won’t be cheap.

So what you’re saying is that there’s lot of folks at $80k a year that are willing to spend nearly half their income to pay for a truck?

Come on now….
For the top trim yes! Why is that so hard to understand? If you want the Top spec CT with quad motors, 500 miles of range, and nearly 1000HP and 0-60 times that are ridiculous, why would it not be up there with what Ford sells the F-150 lightning Platinum for? Why is it so hard for people to understand that the top trim of the CT could very easily be $100k+, because the advertised specs we have today suggest its worth that minimum based on what its offering. The base model (of which could be years before its made from launch) can be much less than that. However, why would Tesla sell the base CT for less than the base F-150 lightning if its better than that truck? Tesla does not have a demand problem, obviously, so higher prices are not a limiting factor for Tesla. Again, 1.5 million + EVs sold this year (2022) at an average selling price of $66k. There is plenty of demand for EVs at that price, the truck market will likely have that or more for years to come.

There are plenty of $100k+ trucks out there. Take a look next time you are out and about and look at all the very expensive trucks all over. Lifted, modded, trucks every 3rd vehicle. Truck guys spend $$$ on their trucks. Not everyone, but plenty do and would. If there are millions around the World lining up to buy a Model Y at $65k, there will be plenty of people lining and and waiting for the CT at those prices. The top spec "mega truck" can command just about any price it wants at the specs that have been advertised.

If you want to argue what the pricing of the CT will be from a base price only, and in the year 2030 when Tesla is making millions of these, then fine. That is not what is being discussed, and I will likely be buying my second round of CT by the time 2030 rolls around. At launch, these will be expensive (at least as expensive as the rest of the EV market/EV truck market). Not sure why this conversation devolved into delinquency. The top trim of the CT will be expensive. No it will not be cheaper than the top trims of the other EVs on the market ($100k), and it absolutely shouldn't be. Base models will be competitive with the base models of other EV trucks (a range of $50k-$70k based on which truck you are looking at. Ford -> Rivian -> GM). The CT is not going to undercut the current market by half the price, and double the specs. That is dreaming and unrealistic. If you have banking or hoping for that you are in for some hurt feelings.
 

Green-Mario

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Tesla has almost always launched their second trim within 3-6 months of the first. For the Model 3, the 3rd trim was available within the first year.


Tesla‘s goal isn’t to make EVs cheap.

Their goal is to electrify the auto industry. They price their cars at whatever they need to in order to sell every single one they can manufacture. They want to be producing 20m vehicles/ year by 2030. Their margins are where they are because they have pursued greater and greater economies of scale and have relentlessly driven costs down.
The EV market is very different than it was in 2017 when the Model 3 launched. Do you not agree with that statement? The sheer demand and volume of orders for the CT means years before even current orders are met.


Your second point, seems to be agreeing with me actually. Tesla can sell every single CT they make at prices above $70k for each one, for the foreseeable future. Considering they sell every single car they make, at similar prices to that already, why would you assume anything less? They also sell every single Model S and X they make at $100k+. What makes you think the top trim CT won't sell every single one they make at that price for the foreseeable future? Last I checked there was a good long waiting list for the S and X, and the CT will be a much higher demand and volume vehicle because of what it is, and is capable of.

At launch, and for the year or two following, why on Earth would you expect pricing to not follow at the bare minimum the current trends of Tesla vehicles? And at the very least match the average selling prices of those vehicles. Which lands the CT at $70k for the base -> mid trim. You are the one arguing for some reason about 2030, and the 20 million/year production goals and what that means for eventual pricing of Tesla vehicles when that happens. If you want to wait a decade longer for the CT so you get the price you are hoping for, have at it. You may find some used ones at much lower prices eventually, but I wouldn't bank on that for the first few years.

If they sell for the prices you are hoping for, they will be scalped and ridiculous rates. I would likely sell both of my super early orders at auction, because who on Earth wouldn't? If Tesla wont capture what the true value of the top spec CT is themselves, others will. If you haven't noticed in the last couple years, Tesla's mission to push the World towards sustainable energy and EVs has worked. Everyone is leaving ICE behind and is now chasing into EVs. The CT doesn't need to beat the ICE trucks in price, they are already on the way out.
 


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… Your second point, seems to be agreeing with me actually. Tesla can sell every single CT they make at prices above $70k for each one, for the foreseeable future. …
Based on what?

Everyone …. Every single person who has made claims about what pricing levels Cybertuck sales can support does so with a statement like this. Nobody who has made a claim like this has any actual data or market research to back it up.

This is a made-up fact which exist nowhere outside your (and some other people’s) head. You are utterly convinced it is true, but there is zero evidence they can sustain pricing like that for even 2 years, let alone “The foreseeable future”.

Exactly how many trucks per year could Tesla sell at that price? What is the basis for that number?

I can guarantee you Tesla can fill their sales books for 3+ years at launch day pricing. How? We have a million preorders. I am fairly confident Tesla can support higher pricing than that. How much more though?

Every dollar people add over launch day pricing reduces the number of people willing to participate in this game. You’ve just asserted that Tesla can increase the base price of the Cybertruck by 75% and it wouldn’t affect demand at all. Think about that for a minute. How many products in your daily life would you continue buying if the price increase 75%?

Unless you have some kind of basis for this… it’s just made up bullshit.
 

Green-Mario

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Based on what?

Everyone …. Every single person who has made claims about what pricing levels Cybertuck sales can support does so with a statement like this. Nobody who has made a claim like this has any actual data or market research to back it up.

This is a made-up fact which exist nowhere outside your (and some other people’s) head. You are utterly convinced it is true, but there is zero evidence they can sustain pricing like that for even 2 years, let alone “The foreseeable future”.

Exactly how many trucks per year could Tesla sell at that price? What is the basis for that number?

I can guarantee you Tesla can fill their sales books for 3+ years at launch day pricing. How? We have a million preorders. I am fairly confident Tesla can support higher pricing than that. How much more though?

Every dollar people add over launch day pricing reduces the number of people willing to participate in this game. You’ve just asserted that Tesla can increase the base price of the Cybertruck by 75% and it wouldn’t affect demand at all. Think about that for a minute. How many products in your daily life would you continue buying if the price increase 75%?

Unless you have some kind of basis for this… it’s just made up bullshit.
You conveniently continue to ignore the very obvious and factual point I keep making. Today Tesla sells millions of EVs right now, at $66k average. That is the "backup" for my claim. Now do me a solid and justify your theory that Tesla will sell a 500 mile, 1000Hp, mega truck for less than the average selling price of their current market and business. Launch day prices from 2019 are already dead, as confirmed during the last shareholder meeting. Its "changing".

What makes you think that the launch prices of the CT wouldn't at the very least match what Tesla is pricing and doing now with their vehicles. Also explain why you feel that Tesla would not price the CT competitively and just wing it, leaving many billions of $ on the table for scalpers. If they can sell them for $100k they will (they can), especially if this thing does 500 miles. That alone makes the CT a $100k+ EV, because it would be the longest range EV in the World by a massive margin (excluding the much more expensive Lucid, and that is not a truck). Just because you want to believe the launch prices are solid, doesn't mean they are. I get that you are very set in your belief that the CT will be much cheaper than the current Tesla lineup at significantly better specs, range, performance, and utility. However, that is far more whimsical than guessing it will "at least" match current average Tesla pricing. Tesla is selling millions of cross over SUVs and small sedans at $66k today. The demand is there, sorry.

If you are wrong, and I am right (oh no!) are you out? Are you heavily banking on the CT mega truck launching with Quad motors, 500+ miles of range, over 1000HP, and acceleration performance that spanks just about everything in existence, at a price of $69k? Does that feel like its going to happen to you?
 

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You conveniently continue to ignore the very obvious and factual point I keep making. Today Tesla sells millions of EVs right now, at $66k average. That is the "backup" for my claim.
As of January, Tesla’s average selling price is $63k. That is all cars, including the Model S and Model X which drive up the average but sell in low volume.

If the ASP is your basis for what the Cybertruck pricing will be, then you are suggesting the ****AVERAGE**** price of the Cybertruck will be $63k or higher. That isn’t the base price, that suggests some will sell for less and some for more.

I agree. The average sales price of the Cybertruck will likely be at least $63k. Heck… I’d even agree that for at least the first 5 years the **average** selling price of the Cybertruck would be at least $66k. That might be 200k trucks at $60k and 75k trucks at $80k. That’s right in the ballpark of where I think things might land actually.

What makes you think that the launch prices of the CT wouldn't at the very least match what Tesla is pricing and doing now with their vehicles. Also explain why you feel that Tesla would not price the CT competitively and just wing it, leaving many billions of $ on the table for scalpers.
You don’t seem to have a good handle on the prices Tesla is selling their cars for. The overwhelming majority of Teslas are sold for less than $65k. Model S and Model X are sold in the 10s of thousands, they are a small and shrinking part of Tesla’s fleet at this point. Tesla just doubled US production of the Model Y and hasn’t significantly increased Model S production in 3-4 years.

As for being competitive. CT pricing I am talking about is extremely competitive, I am talking about a company setting prices to dominate a market, not to make some short term run on a handful of buyers.
 
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Green-Mario

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As of January, Tesla’s average selling price is $63k. That is all cars, including the Model S and Model X which drive up the average but sell in low volume.

If the ASP is your basis for how Tesla will sell Cybertrucks, then you are suggesting the ****AVERAGE**** price of the Cybertruck will be $63k or higher. That isn’t the base price, that suggests some will sell for less and some for more.

I agree. The average sales price of the Cybertruck will likely be at least $63k.
There is more current data on that metric than January you missed... What does February say? And we know how many price increases have happened since Feb? It is now August, and we have had several large price increases since Feb.

https://insideevs.com/news/573684/tesla-average-transaction-prices-rise-2022-inflation/

I feel there is some real dishonesty here. What is the cheapest Model Y you can buy right now? What is the wait for that Model Y? What about Model 3? What do you think the launch prices for the CT will be. Launch prices = what truck will you be able to buy from day 1, and will be in production from day 1. Not what trucks will be available "eventually" or at 2030 multi-million production levels. But from day 1 through the first year of full production. Do you think Tesla will be selling a $40k CT? The CT will be their most affordable vehicle you can buy from Tesla in 2023? I wouldn't bet your house on it.

Q2 2022 stats -
Model Y/3 - 238,533
Model S/X - 16,162
Total - 254,695

Lets do some maths! Model S/X make up ~6% of total vehicle deliveries, and therefore only 6% of that average selling price. So... not really a big influence on the average selling price of the vehicle.

Lets take a look at what the cheapest Model Y costs you can buy today!

Lowest priced Model Y atm = $65,990
range - 318 miles
motors - 2
HP - 434 HP


In your book you believe that Tesla will sell the CT top trim for $69k? What price do you think this truck will command based on specs alone? Because... at this point these specs outdo the $140k Model S plaid. Who would still buy the Model S plaid if the CT quad is half the price and smashes it in specs?

range - 500+ miles
motors - 4
HP - 1000+
 

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Here is another metric for you.

Average new car (Including ICE) sells for $47k. Average Tesla is $63k. Puts the Tesla premium at about 34%. Average new truck price is around $55k (maybe a little less). If you apply that same 34% premium, that suggests the **average** price of the Cybertruck would be about $74k. Not the base price, the average. Half or more would sell for less than that.
 


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In your book you believe that Tesla will sell the CT top trim for $69k? What price do you think this truck will command based on specs alone?
We don’t know what the new lineup looks like. Without knowing this, it’s impossible to know what pricing would be. My current assumption is they will increase prices inline with inflation. That is a price level they can use and keep a huge percentage of existing buyers. We also know Tesla can maintain margins at those prices.

Lots of people think there will be a Plaid above the tri motor, but personally I don’t see why they would need it or what features they would add. (I say tri motor here because it’s the only placeholder I have in the lineup, might be a quad).

What features would a Plaid have over and above what the tri motor had at launch?

Because... at this point these specs outdo the $140k Model S plaid. Who would still buy the Model S plaid if the CT quad is half the price and smashes it in specs?
Tesla hasn’t invested in expanding Model S production for 3+ years. The car is end of life and they are essentially putting it out to pasture. Any comparisons with it are meaningless. They have upgraded it to keep selling those 10s of thousands… but production hasn’t increased.
 

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You never know, this reduce inflation act... that actually increase inflation by design, hell, money will be worth so little by the time the Cybertruck launches, that $130K then might be $80K now. ;)

It makes me wonder, what's the point of spending an insane amount of money for the sole purpose to reducing the cost of the truck. Isn't that the primary goal of the machinery designed and made for producing the Cybertruck? That the only way it would make sense to spend that kind of money and produce that machinery is for massive production to take advantage of economies of scale?

Ain't no economies of scale gonna happen at $100K a truck. L O L

Well, no matter, I love the idea of the Cybertruck, very little excites me like it... but I tap out at $80K. At $100K+ I sure in hell ain't buying a utilitarian truck.

I once said before, I have friends with the S and X, I don't see much difference between them and my Y in overall experience or build quality. They're just a little bigger and faster and at current pricing, only for people that have money to burn.
 

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Some of you are REALLY good at conflict and there is no better venue for it than here in the land of imaginary EV Truck ownership. Carry on ...
 
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