Operating a Cyber Truck Fleet

Anonymous

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So I'm a little skeptical about FSD and robotaxis. I think they're essentially impossible and will never happen, but since the cybertruck reservation was only $100 and refundable, I placed an order for 20+ just in case I am wrong. I saw this as essentially a very good call option on robotaxis.

Assuming that robotaxis do come in the next 3 years (My delivery ETA), how exactly would I go about purchasing my vehicles? I've never operated a business before, so I'm kind of going in blind.
I'm a guy in my 20s with a NW of approximately $500k. I make $120k/year and pay $1500/month for my mortgage. Unless my income goes up dramatically in the next 3 years, I don't think anyone would underwrite a loan of $1.5+ million (Probably more, as I would have to also buy property/infrastructure for my fleet).
My next option be getting a small business loan and arguing that the income from my fleet would cover my costs. Google tells me I need a 10% downpayment, so I'll probably need to pay up $200-300k upfront.
Hopefully the robotaxi network grows a bit by then for the banks to see it as a viable business.

Is there anything that I'm forgetting? It seems pretty cut-and-dry, but I know that running a business is complicated.
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jerhenderson

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So I'm a little skeptical about FSD and robotaxis. I think they're essentially impossible and will never happen, but since the cybertruck reservation was only $100 and refundable, I placed an order for 20+ just in case I am wrong. I saw this as essentially a very good call option on robotaxis.

Assuming that robotaxis do come in the next 3 years (My delivery ETA), how exactly would I go about purchasing my vehicles? I've never operated a business before, so I'm kind of going in blind.
I'm a guy in my 20s with a NW of approximately $500k. I make $120k/year and pay $1500/month for my mortgage. Unless my income goes up dramatically in the next 3 years, I don't think anyone would underwrite a loan of $1.5+ million (Probably more, as I would have to also buy property/infrastructure for my fleet).
My next option be getting a small business loan and arguing that the income from my fleet would cover my costs. Google tells me I need a 10% downpayment, so I'll probably need to pay up $200-300k upfront.
Hopefully the robotaxi network grows a bit by then for the banks to see it as a viable business.

Is there anything that I'm forgetting? It seems pretty cut-and-dry, but I know that running a business is complicated.
the first flaw in your business plan is that it relies on something you think is impossible.
 

Crissa

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You're going to have to write up a business plan that includes how you're going to deal with all the things that could go wrong, and examples of prior art - similar businesses that were profitable.

That's your big leap. But no one is going to fund your taxi system as robo until that's a legal and proven business model. So you might have to write the business plan as a normal taxi service.

Either way, you should look into your local law about hiring out cars. It varies wildly by locality. Get a lawyer.

-Crissa
 

johnm6875

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Assuming Tesla controls the robotaxi operation and pricing won't they put Tesla owned and operated vehicles into the most lucrative areas? They will have a significant advantage for pricing that will make it difficult for individual fleet owners to compete in the long run.
 

DarinCT

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tl;dr: money isn't your real issue

All possible depending on how much leg work you're willing to do or pay for. Traditional funding channels will not support you unless you go through their program and jump through their hoops, thinking specifically of the SBA here. If you go that route, there's classes, mentorships, and money.

Alternative funding channels are first focused on you and your team, then on then business. There's much more money here but the terms get more "invasive", e.g. percentage ownership.

If you're interested in running an EV fleet there are consultants e.g. Gladstein (GNA), trade groups, governmental support, infrastructures sales, and many others who would like to be involved, either for money or because someone already paid them to help the market as a whole.

If you are interested in fleet sales, consider contacting Tesla business sales https://www.tesla.com/corporate . That link is for something slightly different but you'll get a different type of sales call.

Two other components are infrastructure and ROI (return on investment). Let's ball park $2000/month/vehicle for normal expenses. Let's assume 20 active days on average per month. That means break even income needs to be $100/day at roughly 65% utilization. Now, the cost for infrastructure build out needs to be amortized in. I have no idea the costs to create a charging depot for 20 trucks but I'm sure it's more than zero. All of that needs to be added into break even.

This is not impossible, it just needs addressing.
 


frankfoe

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Assuming Tesla controls the robotaxi operation and pricing won't they put Tesla owned and operated vehicles into the most lucrative areas? They will have a significant advantage for pricing that will make it difficult for individual fleet owners to compete in the long run.
I think Tesla is happy to follow the same model as Uber and Lyft. They don't have to manage a fleet or hire employees. All Uber Lyft, and eventually Tesla have to do is connect customers with transportation and they collect payment and keep a portion of it. Tesla has said that they would deploy vehicles in markets where there is more demand then supply, but I think that would be more of a temporary measure. There will still be a need to manage these vehicles (cleaning, charging, etc.) andI think Tesla would be happy to hand this off to individuals and small-medium businesses.
 

frankfoe

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So I'm a little skeptical about FSD and robotaxis. I think they're essentially impossible and will never happen, but since the cybertruck reservation was only $100 and refundable, I placed an order for 20+ just in case I am wrong. I saw this as essentially a very good call option on robotaxis.

Assuming that robotaxis do come in the next 3 years (My delivery ETA), how exactly would I go about purchasing my vehicles? I've never operated a business before, so I'm kind of going in blind.
I'm a guy in my 20s with a NW of approximately $500k. I make $120k/year and pay $1500/month for my mortgage. Unless my income goes up dramatically in the next 3 years, I don't think anyone would underwrite a loan of $1.5+ million (Probably more, as I would have to also buy property/infrastructure for my fleet).
My next option be getting a small business loan and arguing that the income from my fleet would cover my costs. Google tells me I need a 10% downpayment, so I'll probably need to pay up $200-300k upfront.
Hopefully the robotaxi network grows a bit by then for the banks to see it as a viable business.

Is there anything that I'm forgetting? It seems pretty cut-and-dry, but I know that running a business is complicated.
Start with writing up a business plan that describes the opportunity, how you are going to make money from this opportunity, and what advantages if any you have over any competition. Advantages over competition can include advantages over legacy providers like taxis, Uber, Lyft, etc., but also over anyone else who sees the same opportunity that you do and does the same. It should also include modeling of your anticipated revenue and detailed expenses as they change over the first 5 years. I would suggest a best, worst and medium case scenarios.

I would also recommend that you setup your business now with a slightly different model with plans to change to the RoboTaxi model when it goes live. You can Uber or Lyft with a Model Y. You can also use Turo to rent your vehicles out similar to AirBnB. This is my plan.
 

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Don’t forget to factor in all your additional costs. You’ll need space to park 20 trucks. You’ll also need to clean 20 trucks a day. Plus there’s even simple things like frequent plugging/unplugging. This won’t be a side gig. You’ll either have to hire people or make this a real job.
Edit: I’d start smaller with just a few vehicles to see if your plan makes sense. It’d be far less risk, as well as a manageable side gig.
 

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So I'm a little skeptical about FSD and robotaxis. I think they're essentially impossible and will never happen, but since the cybertruck reservation was only $100 and refundable, I placed an order for 20+ just in case I am wrong. I saw this as essentially a very good call option on robotaxis.

Assuming that robotaxis do come in the next 3 years (My delivery ETA), how exactly would I go about purchasing my vehicles? I've never operated a business before, so I'm kind of going in blind.
I'm a guy in my 20s with a NW of approximately $500k. I make $120k/year and pay $1500/month for my mortgage. Unless my income goes up dramatically in the next 3 years, I don't think anyone would underwrite a loan of $1.5+ million (Probably more, as I would have to also buy property/infrastructure for my fleet).
My next option be getting a small business loan and arguing that the income from my fleet would cover my costs. Google tells me I need a 10% downpayment, so I'll probably need to pay up $200-300k upfront.
Hopefully the robotaxi network grows a bit by then for the banks to see it as a viable business.

Is there anything that I'm forgetting? It seems pretty cut-and-dry, but I know that running a business is complicated.

So I'm a little skeptical about FSD and robotaxis. I think they're essentially impossible and will never happen, but since the cybertruck reservation was only $100 and refundable, I placed an order for 20+ just in case I am wrong. I saw this as essentially a very good call option on robotaxis.

Assuming that robotaxis do come in the next 3 years (My delivery ETA), how exactly would I go about purchasing my vehicles? I've never operated a business before, so I'm kind of going in blind.
I'm a guy in my 20s with a NW of approximately $500k. I make $120k/year and pay $1500/month for my mortgage. Unless my income
goes up dramatically in the next 3 years, I don't think anyone would underwrite a loan of $1.5+ million (Probably more, as I would have to also buy property/infrastructure for my fleet).
My next option be getting a small business loan and arguing that the income from my fleet would cover my costs. Google tells me I need a 10% downpayment, so I'll probably need to pay up $200-300k upfront.
Hopefully the robotaxi network grows a bit by then for the banks to see it as a viable business.

Is there anything that I'm forgetting? It seems pretty cut-and-dry, but I know that running a business is complicated.
A business plan is going to be essential for you. It will force you to sharpen your thinking and address issues you haven't fully thought out. I've written many of them, some for myself and for others as well.

Personally, I have my doubts that the robotaxi business model will be fully operational within three years. There are other options, however. Here in LA there are people buying cars and renting them out on Turo. A Model S rents out for $144-212/day, a Model 3 for $111-135/day.

I don't know if Turo is an option in your area.

If you want to discuss in more detail ping me at:
syzygys <<at>> outlook <<dot>> com
 


OCS12

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You may need to clean them more than once a day.

-Crissa
You’re definitely right on that. I was just generalizing. Some clean ups will be a two minute affair, and some will be a drunk that puked. I was just going off what the people who drive for Uber have told me, but that’s with adult supervision in the car! Lol! Sadly, I’d expect far worse behavior in a driverless vehicle.
 
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the first flaw in your business plan is that it relies on something you think is impossible.
Is it? If robotaxis do come, then I won't think they're impossible. The cybertruck orders I made seem like very good hedges in case I am wrong.

Assuming Tesla controls the robotaxi operation and pricing won't they put Tesla owned and operated vehicles into the most lucrative areas? They will have a significant advantage for pricing that will make it difficult for individual fleet owners to compete in the long run.
I do believe that in the long-term, the market will be saturated and profits will decline. There are some advantages that Tesla has in having other people run their own fleet, as Tesla would not pay for infrastructure and maintenance. I believe Elon mentioned them rolling out their own fleet in areas where there isn't enough supply to meet demand, but I don't think they're going to go on a pricing war with their own customers.

Don’t forget to factor in all your additional costs. You’ll need space to park 20 trucks. You’ll also need to clean 20 trucks a day. Plus there’s even simple things like frequent plugging/unplugging. This won’t be a side gig. You’ll either have to hire people or make this a real job.
Edit: I’d start smaller with just a few vehicles to see if your plan makes sense. It’d be far less risk, as well as a manageable side gig.
Yes, this is true. I have to consider the property and infrastructure. My parents are still healthy and are looking to sell their business soon. They expressed interest in working at my potential robotaxi business. I think it'll be less strenuous on their bodies than their current business.

Two other components are infrastructure and ROI (return on investment). Let's ball park $2000/month/vehicle for normal expenses. Let's assume 20 active days on average per month. That means break even income needs to be $100/day at roughly 65% utilization. Now, the cost for infrastructure build out needs to be amortized in. I have no idea the costs to create a charging depot for 20 trucks but I'm sure it's more than zero. All of that needs to be added into break even.

This is not impossible, it just needs addressing.
Is your $2000/month including the amortization for the land / infrastructure?

I don't know how much money each vehicle will bring. According to Uber, someone driving 50 hours a week makes around $1740 where I live, but I've no idea how Tesla will price their services.
I'm hoping that other people who ordered before I did give more concrete answers about their earnings.

Ultimately, if I find that this business won't work, I can always cancel my orders and get my $2+k back, so that's good.
 

rr6013

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Forget fleet. I co-developed investor owned fleet of semi tractors nationwide over irregular routes.

This fleet of 116 units were for-hire transport, $/mi compensated and leased direct from mfgr. The boots on the ground experience taught that the variables beyond the easy metric cited here that fit nicely proforma backrupt investors.

Safety, regulatory compliance, theft, claims, accidents and cashflow are but the creme off the top. Reserves to cover daily operations, maintenance, loss and deductibles is no small nugget to cache.

Random acts of God such as snow, sleet, ice, flood and fire become management burdens when dealing with either souls or perishables. Loss of life is a 24 page hell with DOT that eventually costs millions and years of legal wrangling. Insurance doesn’t cover everything.

Suffice to say, its not a Robotaxi business you are proposing. Its an annuity funded by Cybertruck investors who buy-in to the annuity business model you are haphazarding as taxis. There is the public facing Froggie Taxi and investor facing Cyber annuity. Scale matters and SWAG its BE is in the hundreds.

My advice is simply save your ass, whatever assets you have and your parents grief. IF it were so profitable Tesla would be in the Robotaxi business. Robotaxi is one step in a progression to transporting souls more efficiently, cheaper. UBER can’t make money off other people’s cars and have been at it 10 years almost. Yes, I’ve explored UBER too as fleet. A def. NO.
 

DarinCT

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Is it? If robotaxis do come, then I won't think they're impossible. The cybertruck orders I made seem like very good hedges in case I am wrong.



I do believe that in the long-term, the market will be saturated and profits will decline. There are some advantages that Tesla has in having other people run their own fleet, as Tesla would not pay for infrastructure and maintenance. I believe Elon mentioned them rolling out their own fleet in areas where there isn't enough supply to meet demand, but I don't think they're going to go on a pricing war with their own customers.



Yes, this is true. I have to consider the property and infrastructure. My parents are still healthy and are looking to sell their business soon. They expressed interest in working at my potential robotaxi business. I think it'll be less strenuous on their bodies than their current business.



Is your $2000/month including the amortization for the land / infrastructure?

I don't know how much money each vehicle will bring. According to Uber, someone driving 50 hours a week makes around $1740 where I live, but I've no idea how Tesla will price their services.
I'm hoping that other people who ordered before I did give more concrete answers about their earnings.

Ultimately, if I find that this business won't work, I can always cancel my orders and get my $2+k back, so that's good.
My $2000 is from a spreadsheet I made where the number is 1840 iirc (on mobile seni-busy) rounded up. That 1840 is all things except infrastructure because it was at my house running the business.

(Edit to add:. It was total 5 year cost divided by 60 months)

I vaguely remember the build out costs for a Tesla 8 stall 4 charger v3 being 250K. It came out in some public documents with some city contractor.
 

OCS12

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Let’s not forget the elephant in the room. You’re at the whim of legislators. A couple accidents here and there could easily lead to rash decisions to ban them again (assuming they’re legal anytime soon). Then you’d be sitting on twenty depreciated, financed vehicles. That’d be a bad day.
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