Re sale moratorium - down payments

[Throwcomputer]

I am unsure where you got the average price over all 3 trims at $73,905 when the 3 trims were announced at $40K, $50K, and $70K, so if nothing else you should revise your analysis to use an average price of $53K. Anyway, I am going to continue to believe that Tesla will charge me the price I reserved at, which is $69,900 plus $7,000 for FSD. You are welcome to pay more.

My average was based on the total sales per trim based on the trims percentage of total reservations in that tracker. Which makes the avg per vehicle price much higher because there are approx. 40% tri motor and 40% dual motor reservations.

$53k/per vehicle would only be if there were equal 33.33% reservations for each trim out of the total reservations tracked.

EDIT (Crissa is correct.. crappy math on my part.. ):
The tracker calculates total revenue based on 100% conversion I believe. This is how I got the total Sales figure for all 3 trims:

And This is how I got the total number of reservations for those sales:

Failed math:

$73,905,050,049 (based on 100% conversion) / 1,000,000 (estimated conversions at current prices).

This screwed my math up.. I based the total sales on 100% conversion, but calculated my average per vehicle price by the estimated actual conversions.

Corrected math (i'll change the post above with corrected math):

$73,905,050,049 (based on 100% conversion) / 1,269,276 (total reservations) = $58,226/per vehicle.

BTW.. this is what happens when an art major does math. ?

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[Crissa]

But how could the average be higher than the highest trim?

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

My average was based on the total sales per trim based on the trims percentage of total reservations in that tracker. Which makes the avg per vehicle price much higher because there are approx. 40% tri motor and 40% dual motor reservations.

$53k/per vehicle would only be if there were equal 33.33% reservations for each trim out of the total reservations tracked.

EDIT (Crissa is correct.. crappy math on my part.. ):
The tracker calculates total revenue based on 100% conversion I believe. This is how I got the total Sales figure for all 3 trims:

And This is how I got the total number of reservations for those sales:

Failed math:

$73,905,050,049 (based on 100% conversion) / 1,000,000 (estimated conversions at current prices).

This screwed my math up.. I based the total sales on 100% conversion, but calculated my average per vehicle price by the estimated actual conversions.

Corrected math (i'll change the post above with corrected math):

$73,905,050,049 (based on 100% conversion) / 1,269,276 (total reservations) = $58,226/per vehicle.

BTW.. this is what happens when an art major does math. ?

OK, so you want to base the average on the number of CTs in the reservation list, which is a bogus list at best, but you can only go by how many vehicle registrations have actually been put into the spreadsheet and not by the reservation number. Even then you cannot have an average that is higher than the highest trim level. Anyway, I don't buy into this whole price increase conjecture so you can use whatever numbers you want.

 

[Throwcomputer]

OK, so you want to base the average on the number of CTs in the reservation list, which is a bogus list at best, but you can only go by how many vehicle registrations have actually been put into the spreadsheet and not by the reservation number. Even then you cannot have an average that is higher than the highest trim level. Anyway, I don't buy into this whole price increase conjecture so you can use whatever numbers you want.

I think I was pretty clear from the start that I don't put much faith in the tracker beyond anything but entertainment. But its the simplest way to do this crude example.

I also do not believe the price increase conjecture that everyone is harping on. I actually think they are keeping the prices as announced cause even if you just look at the per vehicle profit that they list in their quarterly earnings, I think they have plenty of room to add all these extra features and keep the pricing the same. So what are they gonna go from 28.8% profit to 18.8% (im making a wild guess again here since we have no concrete info) profit by adding AWS or even turning single/dual/tri into dual/tri/quad? I have an even more wild belief they will keep the announced pricing but will up everyones motor count by 1! 18.8% profit per vehicle still beats the pants off of everyone else! On top of that.. I think they are going for leading the market in terms of total vehicles sold, not simply to make the most profit per vehicle.

Yes the exercise is inaccurate in that we have no real knowledge of how many reservations there are or more importantly how many reservations will actually convert to purchases. But I think even with that said.. it shows that all the weight people on here put on price increases doesn't really provide that huge of a return in the short term.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

My average was based on the total sales per trim based on the trims percentage of total reservations in that tracker. Which makes the avg per vehicle price much higher because there are approx. 40% tri motor and 40% dual motor reservations.

$53k/per vehicle would only be if there were equal 33.33% reservations for each trim out of the total reservations tracked.

EDIT (Crissa is correct.. crappy math on my part.. ):
The tracker calculates total revenue based on 100% conversion I believe. This is how I got the total Sales figure for all 3 trims:

And This is how I got the total number of reservations for those sales:

Failed math:

$73,905,050,049 (based on 100% conversion) / 1,000,000 (estimated conversions at current prices).

This screwed my math up.. I based the total sales on 100% conversion, but calculated my average per vehicle price by the estimated actual conversions.

Corrected math (i'll change the post above with corrected math):

$73,905,050,049 (based on 100% conversion) / 1,269,276 (total reservations) = $58,226/per vehicle.

BTW.. this is what happens when an art major does math. ?

The spreadsheet is only showing about 30,400 entries, so you have to use those numbers. 2,210 Single reservation entries @ $39,900, 14,512 Dual reservation entries @ $49,900 and 13,749 Tri reservation entries at $69,900 makes an average of $58,000. Unless you are including FSD reservations, which I don't think you should. I got these numbers from the spreadsheet.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I think I was pretty clear from the start that I don't put much faith in the tracker beyond anything but entertainment. But its the simplest way to do this crude example.

I also do not believe the price increase conjecture that everyone is harping on. I actually think they are keeping the prices as announced cause even if you just look at the per vehicle profit that they list in their quarterly earnings, I think they have plenty of room to add all these extra features and keep the pricing the same. So what are they gonna go from 28.8% profit to 18.8% (im making a wild guess again here since we have no concrete info) profit by adding AWS or even turning single/dual/tri into dual/tri/quad? I have an even more wild belief they will keep the announced pricing but will up everyones motor count by 1! 18.8% profit per vehicle still beats the pants off of everyone else! On top of that.. I think they are going for leading the market in terms of total vehicles sold, not simply to make the most profit per vehicle.

Yes the exercise is inaccurate in that we have no real knowledge of how many reservations there are or more importantly how many reservations will actually convert to purchases. But I think even with that said.. it shows that all the weight people on here put on price increases doesn't really provide that huge of a return in the short term.

"I think they are going for leading the market in terms of total vehicles sold, not simply to make the most profit per vehicle." It is pretty clear that, unlike the Detroit auto makers, Tesla isn't remotely concerned with the last part of the sentence. You cannot have a mission to accelerate the conversion to sustainable energy and also have a focus on profit. Something has to give. That said, if they succeed in making the CT for less, as they have oft-claimed, their profit should only go up.

There are other factors that render the spreadsheet's prediction dubious at best and they have all been discussed on the forum many times: conversion rate as you say, number of actual orders, number of orders that will move to another trim, geographic location of orderer, etc.

 

[Throwcomputer]

The spreadsheet is only showing about 30,400 entries, so you have to use those numbers. 2,210 Single reservation entries @ $39,900, 14,512 Dual reservation entries @ $49,900 and 13,749 Tri reservation entries at $69,900 makes an average of $58,000. Unless you are including FSD reservations, which I don't think you should. I got these numbers from the spreadsheet.

FSD reservations I didnt think were counted in the sum total of reservations, but the spreadsheet was saying "of all the sum total of reservations, 70.2% of those also chose FSD". Otherwise their percent of total reservations for each trim doesn't add up.

Your way of doing it by using actual tracked reservations is probably better, but I just went with their percentages per trim instead out of ease, since they already did the math on the revenue.

I apologize if I wasn't clear that I don't think the tracker is totally accurate or truthful... or that I wasn't clear in that I actually agree with you that my point is I don't think they are raising prices. It was a thought exercise using the easiest source of data.

 

[Rutrow]

I think the FSD take rate on the original CT reservations will be WAY above the average take rate for other models. The fact that original reservation holders locked in at what will be a 40% discount* will lead most to stick with their early "commitment".

*assuming there won't be further increases above the $12k before roll out.

 

[Joe Maw]

Toyota did the same with the 2022 Landcruiser range,you could not resell it for 12 months after taking delivery.
This was in Australia.
Security reasons apparently.

 

[Ogre]

...When the CT was first announced it was really the first look anyone had at an electric pickup. The design was avante garde and they had no idea if anyone would order it at all, so the initial prices were base on that. ...

And people ordered the truck based on those prices.

Consideration for the price isn't an afterthought. I don't know a lot of people who shop for cars and don't pay attention to what the price is until the very last step. If they raise prices, many people get shifted off the list. Particularly if the drop the single motor and increase the price of the dual motor. Dropping the single and increasing the price of the AWD model by $5k is a 37.5% increase to the base price of the truck. Increasing the price of the AWD by $10k would be a 50% increase in the base price of the truck and a 20% increase in the price of the most popular configuration.

That's 60% of buyers you've potentially priced out of the game. Not a good strategy when you are planning on building 500k/ year or more trucks.

 

[cybguy]

Ford announced that F150 lightning owners will need to agree not to re sell their trucks for a year. Apparently they did the same thing with their Mustang GT and it held.

So the WAS for the day is would Tesla do something like that? If they did, what affect would it have on converted reservations?

In the next 3? month or so Tesla is going to start converting pre orders into sales with significant deposits. How much will the deposits be and how deep into the reservations are they going to require deposits?

Being mid pack 654,000 (219000 for CT2) I am fascinated by conversion rate. Assuming ramp up late 2022 this has more of a bearing on my receipt than anything else. Flushing out multiple orders will be huge. With a resale moratorium the people that ordered robo taxi fleets will drop out. (assuming FSD is not level 5 by release), the resellers would drop out, then we have people that left for the competition. and last people that just could not afford to convert.

What would the conversion rate be now? How different will the conversion rate be between early and late reservation holders?

I'd accuse you of smoking some very potent stuff but that's not legal I Utah. First off relax, unless you purchase an used CT you aren't getting one in the next 5 years. CT will not ramp up in 2022- it was never going to happen due to price and supply of batteries. We will get few if any CTs produced in 2022. Ramp up will be very slow until 2024. No one is converting any CT preorder into sales this year. We might have FSD5 autonomous driving before the end of the decade but highly unlikely Robotaxis until the early 2030s.
Why don't we just make resell of anything not just CTs for a profit illegal? The lot across the street was purchased for $200K and then the new owner turned around and resold it for $300K. Seriously just move to Cuba (Brigham City and Orderville Utah failed as Church run communistic towns in Utah long ago), if you have a problem with Capitalism. FYI, Zero chance your price for the CT will be
the original prices listed giving how many years you're going to be waiting for it.
If you need a new truck sooner than 5 years you'll need to open your wallet and pay the price to move up or cover another truck.

 

[Tinker71]

I'd accuse you of smoking some very potent stuff but that's not legal I Utah. First off relax, unless you purchase an used CT you aren't getting one in the next 5 years. CT will not ramp up in 2022- it was never going to happen due to price and supply of batteries. We will get few if any CTs produced in 2022. Ramp up will be very slow until 2024. No one is converting any CT preorder into sales this year. We might have FSD5 autonomous driving before the end of the decade but highly unlikely Robotaxis until the early 2030s.
Why don't we just make resell of anything not just CTs for a profit illegal? The lot across the street was purchased for $200K and then the new owner turned around and resold it for $300. Seriously just move to Cuba (Brigham City and Orderville Utah failed as Church run communistic towns in Utah long ago), if you have a problem with Capitalism. FYI, Zero chance your price for the CT will be
the original prices listed giving how many years you're going to be waiting for it.
If you need a new truck sooner than 5 years you'll need to open your wallet and pay the price to move up or cover another truck.

Not only is it doable, It has been done. Ford did it. It is called a sales contract. You agree to what is says or you can't buy the product. It will probably say you can't hack the software among other things. I don't know what the consequences for reselling might be. It also probably has a work around. You could rent your CT to someone, but could not sell it or transfer title is all.

I am just speculating the what ifs. Personally I think the Quad motor offering is an out and will make it unnecessary. Take the new poll. FYI not that it matters I am not LDS. I am a fair minded libertarian environmentalist.

 

[finiata]

As far as I'm down the list, I'll probably get one second hand quicker lol.

 

[Throwcomputer]

As far as I'm down the list, I'll probably get one second hand quicker lol.

But would you pay 20k premium for that like tons here seem to think people would?

 

[cybguy]

Not only is it doable, It has been done. Ford did it. It is called a sales contract. You agree to what is says or you can't buy the product. It will probably say you can't hack the software among other things. I don't know what the consequences for reselling might be. It also probably has a work around. You could rent your CT to someone, but could not sell it or transfer title is all.

I am just speculating the what ifs. Personally I think the Quad motor offering is an out and will make it unnecessary. Take the new poll. FYI not that it matters I am not LDS. I am a fair minded libertarian environmentalist.

But would you pay 20k premium for that like tons here seem to think people would?

It'll cost you at least $20K more retail if your down the list a 300,000 +.
And then you'll wait several extra years as well.

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