Re sale moratorium - down payments

[Throwcomputer]

It'll cost you at least $20K more retail if your down the list a 300,000 +.
And then you'll wait several extra years as well.

Assumptions.

No one knows what they will do. Not you. Not me.

Sponsored

 

[rr6013]

Ford announced that F150 lightning owners will need to agree not to re sell their trucks for a year. Apparently they did the same thing with their Mustang GT and it held.

So the WAS for the day is would Tesla do something like that? <SNIP>

Meh, not in Elon’s philosophical world view.

Its your property once you buy it. Tesla has no control over the product other than OTA updates and its insurance clauses.

 

[beeeasybro]

I've said this before, we are being listened to. If enough people talk about price, it encourages the bean counters too reevaluate. I keep my price at a competitive rate, if I hear that I am the lowest price around I adjust. The reason I reserved a CT tri-motor over Duramax was it is a good value at $70,000. In hind sight, I should have still purchased the GMC instead of nursing the old rig for who knows how many years. When the CT was revealed, I could have picked up a 3500 for 65k and now I can't find one for less than 95k. I don't blame Tesla for the delays. These are unprecedented times and I miss the "precedented times" (South Park). I do appreciate having this place too vent while hearing Etta sing the blues.

Oh how I would love to have a precedented time right now!

 

[happy intruder]

Tesla don't play no reindeer games.

They don't even play in the same sandbox.

but with all the promised Elon has made, you still better shift that sandbox before you go play

 

[happy intruder]

All good. Remember Tesla can also lower prices. I am really glad they will make the quad plaid first. They can get some low hanging fruit and keep prices down on the rest of the orders.

IMHO, I think that quad plaid first my weed some out and lower the Rez numbers of the CT3 people going to CT4 only along with the drop out for the upgrade to CT....however, if price is close to the reveal day pricing, may keep people in also

 

[Ogre]

Tesla won’t make you sign a no-resale contract.

I could see them cancelling orders if they suspect you are buying multiple trucks to flip.

 

[Tinker71]

Tesla won’t make you sign a no-resale contract.

I could see them cancelling orders if they suspect you are buying multiple trucks to flip.

I think you right, there are other ways to minimize flipping. I just thought the concept was interesting.

IMHO a higher priced Plaid Quad at the front of the line will solve everything. As a stockholder and mid pack CT2 res holder this will work for me.

Even if you place a 0 price lock order yesterday, but are willing spend $105,000 for the Plaid Quad you will move to the front of the line (assuming the res numbers before you don't upgrade). For me I bet my actual place in line won't change by more than 5-10k units.

Now I would be annoyed if I were a very early CT3 reservation holder. But if Tesla maintains the price or very close too as reveal day through this strategy that should help. You are getting 95% the same truck for ~$35,000 less than the Plaid Quad. You just have to wait another 3-6 months.

I actually think they will still make the CT1,2 and 3 as per reveal. I place the value of controller/motor at $4000 for Tesla. The front or rear differential might be $1000? So a savings of $3000 per unit for the CT3, $6000 for the CT2 and $11,000 for the CT1 at the manufacturer's level. That is significant. With the megacasting the change up in manufacturing should be easier.

 

[Ogre]

I think you right, there are other ways to minimize flipping. I just thought the concept was interesting.

IMHO a higher priced Plaid Quad at the front of the line will solve everything. As a stockholder and mid pack CT2 res holder this will work for me.

People over-index how big the effect Plaid will have. Tesla sold fewer than 20,000 Model Ss and Model Xs last year and I think well under half of those were Plaid (based on relative wait list sizes). The market for $100k+ cars and trucks is fairly small. Total Hummer sales for their intro model are estimated to be under 15,000. There is a reason GM doesn’t share those numbers. Likewise the $105k Silverado “Selling out” in 24 hours. No numbers means small numbers.

Musk has suggested they will be producing 250k+ Cybertrucks per year. If they have 15,000 Plaid Cybertrucks ordered—a number which seems unlikely to me based on Hummer sales and sales of existing Tesla Plaid models—that’s just a few weeks of production.

I strongly suspect Tesla‘s first production line is going to be a high volume line. They are going to want to get that line dialed in and cranking out products fast. The sooner he can get a production line ramped up to 5,000 trucks/ week, the better all around. Musk has already said the quad would be first, so I’m sure that’ll be first.

I suppose if the Plaid is similar enough to build on the same line as the quad they might build it first? I just don’t see them focusing on low volume products when they have this massive of a backlog. Not as a shareholder or a buyer.

 

[Tinker71]

People over-index how big the effect Plaid will have. Tesla sold fewer than 20,000 Model Ss and Model Xs last year and I think well under half of those were Plaid (based on relative wait list sizes). The market for $100k+ cars and trucks is fairly small. Total Hummer sales for their intro model are estimated to be under 15,000. There is a reason GM doesn’t share those numbers. Likewise the $105k Silverado “Selling out” in 24 hours. No numbers means small numbers.

Musk has suggested they will be producing 250k+ Cybertrucks per year. If they have 15,000 Plaid Cybertrucks ordered—a number which seems unlikely to me based on Hummer sales and sales of existing Tesla Plaid models—that’s just a few weeks of production.

I strongly suspect Tesla‘s first production line is going to be a high volume line. They are going to want to get that line dialed in and cranking out products fast. The sooner he can get a production line ramped up to 5,000 trucks/ week, the better all around. Musk has already said the quad would be first, so I’m sure that’ll be first.

I suppose if the Plaid is similar enough to build on the same line as the quad they might build it first? I just don’t see them focusing on low volume products when they have this massive of a backlog. Not as a shareholder or a buyer.

Do you think the quad and Plaid are actually different? I am assuming they are one and the same.

 

[Ogre]

Do you think the quad and Plaid are actually different? I am assuming they are one and the same.

Plaid is their high performance/ track day/ race build. The Model S Plaid and Model X Plaid are variants of the Model S and Model X.

Right now every Plaid build Tesla sells is over $100k and they sell in the thousands (not 10s of thousands… single digit thousands).

That is the only reference I have in my database for “Plaid”. My assumption is Tesla will launch quad motor, dual motor, and Plaid versions of the truck in 2022/ early 2023. The Plaid will be a variant of the quad and cost $100k+.

Tesla hasn’t sold a product where they’ve mixed high volume and low volume builds before so it’s hard to say. Maybe quad and Plaid are synonymous and will be priced where Tesla can sell 400k of them in 2 years.

Tesla is making a Cybertruck gun capable of firing out 2 trucks every 3 minutes. They need to produce a truck which will sell that fast. How many $100k trucks have sold in the past year?

 

[Tinker71]

Plaid is their high performance/ track day/ race build. The Model S Plaid and Model X Plaid are variants of the Model S and Model X.

Right now every Plaid build Tesla sells is over $100k and they sell in the thousands (not 10s of thousands… single digit thousands).

That is the only reference I have in my database for “Plaid”. My assumption is Tesla will launch quad motor, dual motor, and Plaid versions of the truck in 2022/ early 2023. The Plaid will be a variant of the quad and cost $100k+.

Tesla hasn’t sold a product where they’ve mixed high volume and low volume builds before so it’s hard to say. Maybe quad and Plaid are synonymous and will be priced where Tesla can sell 400k of them in 2 years.

Tesla is making a Cybertruck gun capable of firing out 2 trucks every 3 minutes. They need to produce a truck which will sell that fast. How many $100k trucks have sold in the past year?

The first 30,000 rounds will be very profitable.

I think the high end truck market is larger than you do apparently. My guess is since there is more utility in a truck people can justify the tax write off vs a Plaid S/X. $105k would be on the low end for Plaid as well. Same spread but a lot less compared to S/X. There will be a lot of takers.

We are all just guessing, but my guess is the Quad and Plaid are the same and they will still make the CT3 pretty close to reveal. You don't get cost savings by making 4 motors a little smaller or limiting them. You eliminate one. Also people like to differentiate themselves. They pay a shit ton for the last 5% improvement over the next guy.

BTW I like your posts. Some times I just play contrarian for fun. Your logic often pulls me back and you make it fun.

 

[Ogre]

The first 30,000 rounds will be very profitable.

I think the high end truck market is larger than you do apparently. My guess is since there is more utility in a truck people can justify the tax write off vs a Plaid S/X. $105k would be on the low end for Plaid as well. Same spread but a lot less compared to S/X. There will be a lot of takers.

We are all just guessing, but my guess is the Quad and Plaid are the same and they will still make the CT3 pretty close to reveal. You don't get cost savings by making 4 motors a little smaller or limiting them. You eliminate one. Also people like to differentiate themselves. They pay a shit ton for the last 5% improvement over the next guy.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Tesla built the most expensive trucks first. That’s sort of always been likely.

Right now “Luxury trucks” are in the $80-90k price range. Rivian and Denali are right in that ballpark. Land Rover has some more expensive trucks. But it’s a small volume business, the lions share of trucks sell for $35-55k.

One oddball thing about the Cybertruck is I think Musk said there would be no badging on it. That means people trying to conspicuous spending are going to have trouble differentiating themselves from the peons in $50k Cybertrucks.

BTW I like your posts. Some times I just play contrarian for fun. Your logic often pulls me back and you make it fun.

Likewise. The people here are mostly fantastic.

 

[happy intruder]

well, I think they should build a good truck first.....try to get it right first on a lower end model, then move on to the most exotic and complicated one...eliminating all the hick-ups first....do it right first, then build on that to make more complicated ones....

 

[Cybertruck Hawaii]

Automakers have good intentions just to have the dealerships ruin the buying experience. Ugh! I feel like I have a dog choke collar every time I enter a car dealership. They have total control over my presence for hours at a time.

Sponsored