Reservation numbers and reality

Arctic_White

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I agree with the 10-20% conversion rate, however at these prices you are going to burn through the rich early adopters pretty fast and end up with a demand profile similar to the MS and MX - 100 k per year combined.
I'm puzzled why folks continue to bring MS and MX to gauge how well the Cybertruck will do.

The demand for luxury sedans is very low. The demand for large premium SUVs are higher but not as much as you think. However, the demand for expensive pickup trucks vastly exceeds the demand for luxury sedans / SUVs.

I see way more $80K+ pickup trucks when I'm driving around than I do sedans.

Because I think the ramp will be slow, I don't think Tesla will have any issues selling out every single Cybertruck until the beginning of 2027 (or 3 years from now) without having to drop prices. During that time, however, there will be a continuous improvement to the Cybertruck with more features added and possibly more range and power.
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davelloydbrown

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The premium truck market of 80k+ is a very thin slice of the general truck market. A lot of those trucks fall in HD category with hauling capabilities way beyong CT. There is also a pronounced anti tesla and ev bias in that group.

The typical dolled up ice full size truck is about 65k

CT's bread and butter customer i believe is a new hybrid group and not the traditional set so forecasting demand at 80k starting isn't as clear cut as citing general truck demand
People who spend 80-100 k on a truck usually are contractors who own a business and can 1) write off the vehicle and fuel costs and 2) expect that vehicle to travel long distances and tow large loads of heavy equipment, none of which the CT can do.

With regard to expensive SUV's, the MX is a suv not a sedan.
 

HaulingAss

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The typical dolled up ice full size truck is about 65k
The AVERAGE transaction price (not including tax, license and fees) of a new ICE truck in the U.S. is $65-$66,000. Trucks that are "dolled up" more than average cost more than that.

Personally, I think a there are a lot of guys out there trying to buy manhood. 🤷‍♂️
 

Jager

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I'm a lifelong truck guy. And I agree with @Alpine 's comment above about the anti-Tesla and anti-EV bias very evident in that truck market. That viewpoint is terribly unfortunate, but very real.

When I drive to a rifle match, I'd guess 75% of the guys show up in a truck. With maybe 20% showing up in an SUV. When I drive up in my Model 3, I am very much an outlier. And as you might imagine, I get all kinds of good-natured ribbing about my choice of wheels.

But here's the thing.... truck guys, broadly speaking, are far more likely to be hands-on, DIY types, with a far better grasp of mechanical things than the general population. And underneath that teasing that I smile and laugh at, there's a quiet sense of genuine curiosity.

None of the other vehicles in Tesla's lineup have ever had a snowball's chance in hell of changing their opinion. But if the Cybertruck turns out to have half the functionality that most of us here believe it does... that staid, conservative, old-school truck market starts to loom into view.

I cannot wait to drive up to a match in mine.
 

Arctic_White

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The AVERAGE transaction price (not including tax, license and fees) of a new ICE truck in the U.S. is $65-$66,000. Trucks that are "dolled up" more than average cost more than that.

Personally, I think a there are a lot of guys out there trying to buy manhood. 🤷‍♂️
Are you surprised, though? This is typical behaviour: heck, I myself purchased a Plaid rather than save $30K and get the dual motor Model S. :ROFLMAO:

It's beyond meeting basic needs and as long as they can comfortably afford it, it's all right.

Furthermore, people forget how crazy expensive new pickup trucks are. :oops: The Cybertruck is priced a bit on the high-end of the spectrum, but to me as well as many others, it's worth it.
 


Arctic_White

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I'm a lifelong truck guy. And I agree with @Alpine 's comment above about the anti-Tesla and anti-EV bias very evident in that truck market. That viewpoint is terribly unfortunate, but very real.

When I drive to a rifle match, I'd guess 75% of the guys show up in a truck. With maybe 20% showing up in an SUV. When I drive up in my Model 3, I am very much an outlier. And as you might imagine, I get all kinds of good-natured ribbing about my choice of wheels.

But here's the thing.... truck guys, broadly speaking, are far more likely to be hands-on, DIY types, with a far better grasp of mechanical things than the general population. And underneath that teasing that I smile and laugh at, there's a quiet sense of genuine curiosity.

None of the other vehicles in Tesla's lineup have ever had a snowball's chance in hell of changing their opinion. But if the Cybertruck turns out to have half the functionality that most of us here believe it does... that staid, conservative, old-school truck market starts to loom into view.

I cannot wait to drive up to a match in mine.
100% this.

The Cybertruck will change people's minds about what an EV is, and it'll result in more and more orders. It will be along time before you can just go to a service centre/dealer and buy or pick up (no pun intended :ROFLMAO: ) a new Cybertruck on the spot.
 

beewang

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On the topic of of general acceptance:

- I don't really give a rats @$$ what other thinks of what I like in life. I am kindda comfortable in my own skins.

- Nor do I care as a stakeholder in TSLA, if other ppl like the CT. CT isn't going to make or break TSLA Inc.

Cheers!

beewang
 

davelloydbrown

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On the topic of of general acceptance:

- I don't really give a rats @$$ what other thinks of what I like in life. I am kindda comfortable in my own skins.

- Nor do I care as a stakeholder in TSLA, if other ppl like the CT. CT isn't going to make or break TSLA Inc.

Cheers!

beewang
yeah I was hoping that they would only increase the CT pricing by 10-20%, which would allow it to contribute to the bottom line. As it stands it will not significantly affect tesla's bottom line for a couple of years, if and when they lower prices.

As a second day reservation holder, I will have to put off my purchase for a couple of years as well and as a tesla investor I have sold 1/2 of my stock and I will probably buy some puts tomorrow. Fourth quarter earnings aren't going to be much better than the 3rd quarter and it could get ugly.
 

cvalue13

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I'm a lifelong truck guy. And I agree with @Alpine 's comment above about the anti-Tesla and anti-EV bias very evident in that truck market.
thing about a CT (the one they're building, not the one advertised in 2019), is it's not so dependent on historical full-sized truck buyers, or even 1/2 ton truck buyers.

It's going to cannibalize Tesla's sales of Model S and Model X.

It's going to convert people who never wanted the size and lack of agility in trucks in urban environments (be it midsized buyers, or sedan/SUV buyers)

it's functionally a sort of jack-of-all-trades, and so too from a market perspective does it draw a bit from several different buckets


not suggesting it's guaranteed to knock it out of the park anytime soon, but instead that it doesn't solely rely on historical truck buyers for its success case
 

Jager

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thing about a CT (the one they're building, not the one advertised in 2019), is it's not so dependent on historical full-sized truck buyers, or even 1/2 ton truck buyers.

It's going to cannibalize Tesla's sales of Model S and Model X.

It's going to convert people who never wanted the size and lack of agility in trucks in urban environments (be it midsized buyers, or sedan/SUV buyers)

it's functionally a sort of jack-of-all-trades, and so too from a market perspective does it draw a bit from several different buckets


not suggesting it's guaranteed to knock it out of the park anytime soon, but instead that it doesn't solely rely on historical truck buyers for its success case
I agree. The Cybertruck has qualities that no other vehicle does.

In the million-plus miles I put on pickup trucks, notwithstanding my obvious appreciation for their utility, I always looked longingly at many of the benefits of SUV's. It's a lot easier to carry kids and dogs and groceries in an SUV. Not to mention things like long guns and fly rods and camping gear.

The Cybertruck kind of splits the difference, offering most of the benefits of a classic pickup along with many of the advantages of an SUV.

I think it has a chance to totally reshape the American automobile market.
 


Cybertruck 1974

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Tesla states " Delivery 2024 if order now with $250 down payment" done. My 2019 res means nothing. Except I did get an invite to order the Foundation Series which hellllllll noooooooo.
 

Arctic_White

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thing about a CT (the one they're building, not the one advertised in 2019), is it's not so dependent on historical full-sized truck buyers, or even 1/2 ton truck buyers.

It's going to cannibalize Tesla's sales of Model S and Model X.

It's going to convert people who never wanted the size and lack of agility in trucks in urban environments (be it midsized buyers, or sedan/SUV buyers)

it's functionally a sort of jack-of-all-trades, and so too from a market perspective does it draw a bit from several different buckets


not suggesting it's guaranteed to knock it out of the park anytime soon, but instead that it doesn't solely rely on historical truck buyers for its success case
Wow, you still don't think that Tesla has knocked it out of the park with the Cybertruck? Seriously?!

Is the 2M+ confirmed demand not sufficient to change your mind?

Are the unique and incredibly new features in the Cybertruck insufficient to change your mind?

The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that the Cybertruck will sell to the tune of 500K units per year once they are fully ramped up and have enough battery cells. So let's say by 2028.
 

davelloydbrown

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Fast forward to 10:33

Whereby Franz Van Holzhausen confirmed 2M+ CT Reservation



On the record, so this is official.
Great video, great car, too bad only a small fraction of the early reservation holders can afford it at these prices.

Ralph Nadar made his name as a consumer advocate, writing a book about the covair- 'Unsafe at any Speed'.
 

Arctic_White

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I agree. The Cybertruck has qualities that no other vehicle does.

In the million-plus miles I put on pickup trucks, notwithstanding my obvious appreciation for their utility, I always looked longingly at many of the benefits of SUV's. It's a lot easier to carry kids and dogs and groceries in an SUV. Not to mention things like long guns and fly rods and camping gear.

The Cybertruck kind of splits the difference, offering most of the benefits of a classic pickup along with many of the advantages of an SUV.

I think it has a chance to totally reshape the American automobile market.
Well said. Those with kids at home want several things in their vehicle: space, comfort, usability, access to the vehicle, and ground clearance. Most also want an SUV because of its commanding view, albeit with its own set of issues but I digress.

My point is that more folks will gravitate towards the Cybertruck, especially those wanting mid-size or larger SUVs.

As long as Tesla continues to lower their prices, I don't see how the Cybertruck won't sell 500K+ units per year eventually. On the flip side, if the price remains high, I fail to see how they can sell more than 100K units per year.

Ultimately, it boils down to affordability. The sample size in these forums is not reflective of the general population.
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