Reservation numbers and reality

[Jager]

thing about a CT (the one they're building, not the one advertised in 2019), is it's not so dependent on historical full-sized truck buyers, or even 1/2 ton truck buyers.

It's going to cannibalize Tesla's sales of Model S and Model X.

It's going to convert people who never wanted the size and lack of agility in trucks in urban environments (be it midsized buyers, or sedan/SUV buyers)

it's functionally a sort of jack-of-all-trades, and so too from a market perspective does it draw a bit from several different buckets


not suggesting it's guaranteed to knock it out of the park anytime soon, but instead that it doesn't solely rely on historical truck buyers for its success case

I agree. The Cybertruck has qualities that no other vehicle does.

In the million-plus miles I put on pickup trucks, notwithstanding my obvious appreciation for their utility, I always looked longingly at many of the benefits of SUV's. It's a lot easier to carry kids and dogs and groceries in an SUV. Not to mention things like long guns and fly rods and camping gear.

The Cybertruck kind of splits the difference, offering most of the benefits of a classic pickup along with many of the advantages of an SUV.

I think it has a chance to totally reshape the American automobile market.

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[Cybertruck 1974]

Tesla states " Delivery 2024 if order now with $250 down payment" done. My 2019 res means nothing. Except I did get an invite to order the Foundation Series which hellllllll noooooooo.

 

[beewang]

i dont believe the 2M number for a second

Fast forward to 10:33

Whereby Franz Van Holzhausen confirmed 2M+ CT Reservation



On the record, so this is official.

 

[Arctic_White]

thing about a CT (the one they're building, not the one advertised in 2019), is it's not so dependent on historical full-sized truck buyers, or even 1/2 ton truck buyers.

It's going to cannibalize Tesla's sales of Model S and Model X.

It's going to convert people who never wanted the size and lack of agility in trucks in urban environments (be it midsized buyers, or sedan/SUV buyers)

it's functionally a sort of jack-of-all-trades, and so too from a market perspective does it draw a bit from several different buckets


not suggesting it's guaranteed to knock it out of the park anytime soon, but instead that it doesn't solely rely on historical truck buyers for its success case

Wow, you still don't think that Tesla has knocked it out of the park with the Cybertruck? Seriously?!

Is the 2M+ confirmed demand not sufficient to change your mind?

Are the unique and incredibly new features in the Cybertruck insufficient to change your mind?

The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that the Cybertruck will sell to the tune of 500K units per year once they are fully ramped up and have enough battery cells. So let's say by 2028.

 

[davelloydbrown]

Fast forward to 10:33

Whereby Franz Van Holzhausen confirmed 2M+ CT Reservation



On the record, so this is official.

Great video, great car, too bad only a small fraction of the early reservation holders can afford it at these prices.

Ralph Nadar made his name as a consumer advocate, writing a book about the covair- 'Unsafe at any Speed'.

 

[Arctic_White]

I agree. The Cybertruck has qualities that no other vehicle does.

In the million-plus miles I put on pickup trucks, notwithstanding my obvious appreciation for their utility, I always looked longingly at many of the benefits of SUV's. It's a lot easier to carry kids and dogs and groceries in an SUV. Not to mention things like long guns and fly rods and camping gear.

The Cybertruck kind of splits the difference, offering most of the benefits of a classic pickup along with many of the advantages of an SUV.

I think it has a chance to totally reshape the American automobile market.

Well said. Those with kids at home want several things in their vehicle: space, comfort, usability, access to the vehicle, and ground clearance. Most also want an SUV because of its commanding view, albeit with its own set of issues but I digress.

My point is that more folks will gravitate towards the Cybertruck, especially those wanting mid-size or larger SUVs.

As long as Tesla continues to lower their prices, I don't see how the Cybertruck won't sell 500K+ units per year eventually. On the flip side, if the price remains high, I fail to see how they can sell more than 100K units per year.

Ultimately, it boils down to affordability. The sample size in these forums is not reflective of the general population.

 

[Nabilriaz69]

I agree. The Cybertruck has qualities that no other vehicle does.

In the million-plus miles I put on pickup trucks, notwithstanding my obvious appreciation for their utility, I always looked longingly at many of the benefits of SUV's. It's a lot easier to carry kids and dogs and groceries in an SUV. Not to mention things like long guns and fly rods and camping gear.

The Cybertruck kind of splits the difference, offering most of the benefits of a classic pickup along with many of the advantages of an SUV.

I think it has a chance to totally reshape the American automobile market.

Wow, you still don't think that Tesla has knocked it out of the park with the Cybertruck? Seriously?!

Is the 2M+ confirmed demand not sufficient to change your mind?

Are the unique and incredibly new features in the Cybertruck insufficient to change your mind?

The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that the Cybertruck will sell to the tune of 500K units per year once they are fully ramped up and have enough battery cells. So let's say by 2028.

The 2 M + is not the confirmed demand , it is due the fact of $100 reservation fees, nothing to lose for several folks. 39000 for an ev with 500 range that made them to reserve and only $100.
Now some of who reserved CT after reveal buying Model Y

 

[PilotPete]

The 2 M + is not the confirmed demand , it is due the fact of $100 reservation fees, nothing to lose for several folks. 39000 for an ev with 500 range that made them to reserve and only $100.
Now some of who reserved CT after reveal buying Model Y

Tesla never proposed a CT with a 500 mile range for $39000.

 

[cvalue13]

Wow, you still don't think that Tesla has knocked it out of the park with the Cybertruck? Seriously?!

first, I think it remains to be seen. What they are advertising they built vs real world experience, are two different things.

between us two, I suspect I’m the only one who has ridden in a CT

so, while Imm not saying they DIDNT ‘knock it out of the park,’ entire unsure as to what basis you have to think they did - aside from
to date having heard only one side of the relevant story (eg Tesla’s marketing pitch).

It’s a very compelling product.

at the same time, it is a very different product than what was contemplated and advertised in 2019

I personally think it’s a BETTER and more MARKETABLE product than what was advertised in 2019

but that doesn’t change the fact that people who put down mere $100 deposits in 2019 for THAT product, will feel the same about THIS product

Is the 2M+ confirmed demand not sufficient to change your mind?

As others have said but bares repeating:

2M global pre-orders for $100 refundable deposit in a zero interest environment on a $50K or 500mi truck that can, depending on configuration, compete squarely with 1/2 ton and even 3/4 ton trucks does not yet tell me a lot about how people today will buy the truck offered at these prices/interest rates, at least in the near- to mid-term

Are the unique and incredibly new features in the Cybertruck insufficient to change your mind?

Unique and incredibly new features mean squar to volume if people don’t find them of sufficient value proposition

History is littered with graveyards of unique and incredibly new features


Meanwhile, in reality, Tesla has produced a very compelling product that is a compromise born of the laws of physics, the limits of regulations, and the laws of marketplaces.


It can on paper tow as much as eg the Lightning (probably better, stability-wise), but has materially less interior room compared to a Lightning. How much these differences matter will require experience. But as a starting place, people buying ~1/2 ton trucks tend to prioritize interior room over towing capacity (because people who REALLY tow don’t typically consider ~1/2 ton trucks).

The CT’s cargo bed has essentially identical volume as a 5.5’ F150, but some advantages (eg a secure vault cover), and some disadvantages (eg CT open air cargo volume is MATERIALLY less than than a 5.5’ F150 bed).

The list of these compromises is long. All of them defensible and compelling from a marketing, regulations, and physics standpoint. We don’t have to go through them all.


But ultimately, in Dec of 2023, they wild-eyes hopium crowd who themselves feel the CT wears a cape with an impenetrable force field of zero compromises, has to come back to earth.

Or at the very least, recognize that their particular brand of sports-team like obsession isn’t shared by the vast majority of real world consumers.

The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that the Cybertruck will sell to the tune of 500K units per year once they are fully ramped up and have enough battery cells. So let's say by 2028.

feel free to talk about 2028 all you wish, if course

but if you ever see me saying something, don’t incorrectly ascribe to me that sort of prognostication

I’m only interested in the near to mid-term line of sight on this product, the consumer environment, and the relative competitive pressures.

but if forced to? Absent world events too terrible to imagine?

I would bet against the CT in 2028 selling more than any single existing 1/2 ton truck sells annually.

that’s a vision shared by like 50 total $TSLA xwitter influenzas that the rest of the world correctly has grown tired of hearing.

especially after all the hard learning of Nov and Dec 2023, which seems to have miraculously taught them nothing about their inability to foresee the near future, much less far future

 

[HaulingAss]

Trying to predict future sales numbers is hard, without knowing how much a truck costs to produce. Because that is ultimately what will determine how demand plays out for any given product, how low it can be sold for.

The ramp of Cybertruck production is going to be slow, because Tesla is still refining the production process. They have learned how to make it, now they have to learn how to make it at speed. The production does not resemble any other vehicle ever made, so it's not as straightforward as it appears.

Anyone who has been paying attention knows that Tesla is a company well-suited to solving problems, refining processes and increasing efficiency over time. They do this much faster than legacy OEMs, this is not "hopium", it's observable fact. Still, that doesn't mean the production ramp will be quick to high volume due to how different Cybertruck is to other electric trucks (and especially other ICE trucks). We can assume the ramp will be slower, we just don't know how much slower. And that's what will largely determine the cost to produce and the volume of production and sales. The speed of production largely determines volumes and costs and therefore sales.

Those with unbridled hopium will be disappointed. But hopium goes both ways. I've seen an increasing number of people who have hopium that Cybertruck will not become a big seller. Probably because they have financial interests in ICE sales, or perhaps in oil and/or refined petreleum products. Some have even gone so far as to predict that Cybertruck will be the worst selling truck in 4 years of all existing trucks. This is what I call unbridled hopium, without anything to support their hope that Cybertruck remains low volume, they make wild projections 4 years out, that Cyertruck will be an utter failure. They disguise their hopes by couching them in realistic sounding language and trying to position fans of the Cybertruck as the ones who are basing their optimism on a hope and a prayer. But the worst cases of hopium are presented by traditional auto delarships who project Cybertruck will not resonate with new vehicle buyers, that it does nothing better than existing vehicles and will have low demand as far as they eye can see.

But as hard as it is to predict specific numbers and timelines, the Cybertruck ramp will still go in a generally predictable pattern. It will ramp slowly at first, and Tesla will maintain high prices to prevent the loss of huge amounts of money as they continue to refine the production process. As Tesla sees they are starting to bump into the limits of demand for high priced trucks, they will lower prices and ramp valumes higher. This will rinse and repeat until Tesla is selling in volumes far higher than the lowest selling 1/2 ton trucks today.

To my knowledge, the Silverado EV has that distinction today. Even though it entered production in Q3 2023, before the Cybertruck, Cybertruck has already outsold it. I believe they have only sold 18 Silverado EV's so far this year.

The Ford Lightning sells in roughly similar volumes to the Nissan Titan, an ICE powered crew-cab 1/2 ton pickup, around 15,000-20,000 units annually for each of them. You don't need any hopium to see that the Cybertruck will handily outsell both of those offerings in 2028 (it's a good bet we won't even have to wait that long).

In fact, you would need hopium to think Cybertruck will NOT crush sales of both of those added together, by 2028. There is a lot of hopium out there, but it's not primarily EV or Tesla fans. In fact, I would say Tesla fans are in the minority whe it comes to hopium. Because you cannot stop an idea whose time has come.

 

[Mini2nut]

To me the Cybertruck is lifestyle vehicle that happens to be a radically styled pickup truck.

A lot of people who never considered purchasing a pickup are placing Cybertruck reservations.

 

[Keeney]

To me the Cybertruck is lifestyle vehicle that happens to be a radically styled pickup truck.

A lot of people who never considered purchasing a pickup are placing Cybertruck reservations.

IF CT is their first full-sized truck, they will be in for some learning curve when it comes to parking, rearward visibility, fuel efficiency, tire costs, window scraping, and how many things still don't really fit in a covered 6' x 4' box.
Don't even get me started on the amount of magic thinking around towing.

 

[HaulingAss]

IF CT is their first full-sized truck, they will be in for some learning curve when it comes to parking, rearward visibility, fuel efficiency, tire costs, window scraping, and how many things still don't really fit in a covered 6' x 4' box.

Window scraping? What are you talking about? We've had two Model 3's for over 5 years and we've never had to scrape the windows. You don't have to scrape the windows in your Lightning Pro, do you?

Fuel efficiency? I think that's a strong point of Cybertruck, compared to your typical SUV, truck or sedan.

It baffles me what some people think. Unless you call this "scraping":

 

[Keeney]

Window scraping? What are you talking about? We've had two Model 3's for over 5 years and we've never had to scrape the windows. You don't have to scrape the windows in your Lightning Pro, do you?

Fuel efficiency? I think that's a strong point of Cybertruck, compared to your typical SUV, truck or sedan.

It baffles me what some people think. Unless you call this "scraping":

In regards to window scraping and fuel efficiency, my comment was regarding first time full-sized truck buyers learning some of the downsides of a larger vehicle in comparison to smaller vehicles.

Yes, of course, you can turn on the defrost on any vehicle and wait some minutes and it will eventually melt, and yes EV's put out heat a lot faster was well. How long was the time lapse?

 

[Balthezor]

We acting like we need a commercial license to scrape ice from truck windows here because they are bigger. Plenty of people drive Suburbans, SUVs. Those cars that look like boats. Its ok.

Not everyone is coming from a Geo Metro to a Cybertruck. It’s not that hard.

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