Reservation numbers and reality

[Chris Abee]

My wife paid her $100 reservation fee for a Cybertruck in February 2022 (almost 2 years ago). Based on what we have learned about how to decipher RN numbers, there are more than 3 million orders ahead of her. I keep reading that there are about 2 million reservations, but that does not agree with the RN numbers. She will probably be too old to drive it by the time her number comes up, or said another way, her number is likely to come up before her RN number comes up. I am a stock holder in Tesla and owned a 2021 model y and now a 2023 model Y. I have watched Elon/Tesla work miracles, but I doubt that even quantum theory can resolve this problem. It is unfortunate that manufacturing will most likely take many years to satisfy the current number of reservations. One might think this is a wonderful dilema for Tesla, but it really isn't.

Sponsored

 

[DeadSetElectric]

The RN numbers are for every Tesla sold/ordered it’s not every cybertruck order. You’ll be able to order by 2025 at the latest I think.

 

[Alan]

The res. # are not exclusive to the cybertruck. They include pretty much everything ordered from Tesla.

 

[Jager]

Aye, the reservation number is for everything Tesla sells. Buy a Tesla floor mat... and that's a reservation number.
Edit: I stand corrected... order numbers for non-vehicle products are different than the RNxxxx numbers for vehicles.


I have read it speculated that maybe 1/4 of the reservation numbers since the Cybertruck reveal were for Cybertrucks. I suspect it's lower than that. But regardless, you can't look at the reservation number alone and assume you're years out.

Combine that with a very low conversion rate because of the shocking-to-most prices and folks could end up receiving their Cybertrucks a lot sooner than they expected.

 

[Cyber111]

Hi, I'm in LA and some of the LA culture/mindset can be a little embarrassing. Specifically, there were A LOT of people in LA who reserved the Cybertruck that never had any intention of purchasing one. They just wanted to be able to say "I ordered a Cybertruck!" I honestly believe that the waiting list is going to get significantly shorter because: a) Many of the people the placed orders were not serious. b) The higher price and lower range will dissuade many people altogether, and c) The higher price and lower range makes the Cybertruck more equal to many of its competitors. So I suspect that a lot of people will get impatient and just get a different EV Pick-Up (that's available now.) I'm sticking with the Cybertruck and I'm fairly confident that mine will arrive in 2024.

 

[davelloydbrown]

Aye, the reservation number is for everything Tesla sells. Buy a Tesla floor mat... and that's a reservation number.

I have read it speculated that maybe 1/4 of the reservation numbers since the Cybertruck reveal were for Cybertrucks. I suspect it's lower than that. But regardless, you can't look at the reservation number alone and assume you're years out.

Combine that with a very low conversion rate because of the shocking-to-most prices and folks could end up receiving their Cybertrucks a lot sooner than they expected.

I agree, because of the significant increase in price and the reduced mileage in the tri-motor, I also believe that the conversion rate is going to be low, so you may get a call sooner than you think if you are willing to pony up.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

My wife paid her $100 reservation fee for a Cybertruck in February 2022 (almost 2 years ago). Based on what we have learned about how to decipher RN numbers, there are more than 3 million orders ahead of her. I keep reading that there are about 2 million reservations, but that does not agree with the RN numbers. She will probably be too old to drive it by the time her number comes up, or said another way, her number is likely to come up before her RN number comes up. I am a stock holder in Tesla and owned a 2021 model y and now a 2023 model Y. I have watched Elon/Tesla work miracles, but I doubt that even quantum theory can resolve this problem. It is unfortunate that manufacturing will most likely take many years to satisfy the current number of reservations. One might think this is a wonderful dilema for Tesla, but it really isn't.

If the issues which concern many (price and range) continue, maybe she will get her shot at a Cybertruck much sooner. Tesla has been offering out somewhere around 1,000 Foundation Series cybertrucks. Some have accepted the offer and some have not. Some have even cancelled their reservations. It seems to me, just by looking at the reservation numbers that have ordered, that they have asked up into the RN 10,000s and at least one person out at 250,000 has ordered. As a result, I am hopeful that my own RN will come up earlier, and so might hers. Of course, everything could change very quickly if those price/range issues change, and of course as more CTs get seen and used more people will change their minds. Good luck!

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The RN numbers are for every Tesla sold/ordered it’s not every cybertruck order. You’ll be able to order by 2025 at the latest I think.

Tesla has a different numbering system for orders and reservations, so whereas you are certainly right that all are lumped together it might be that we are talking about all reservations rather than all of everything.

 

[SlegMD]

All depends on scaling, can Tesla achieve the numbers?

 

[FRSandro]

To those speaking about the price issue.

Just to make clear this point is also hammered.

The Plaid once cost 130k. It's now 90k.

Tesla pricing policies aren't stable. So no only the CT is 30k or more, it seems certain that eventually the price will be lowered dramatically.

I'm not that much of a fan.

 

[HaulingAss]

All depends on scaling, can Tesla achieve the numbers?

In time, Tesla will scale the Cybertruck to great numbers, that's a near certainty, but it's pretty obvious, based on multiple small clues, there has been another delay. Based on all the clues we have available, and more on the flavor of those clues than anything specific, I'm guessing the high-volume ramp won't start until until mid-late 2024. I wish (and hope) it is not so, but that looks like the most likely scenario.

Between now and then, Tesla will probably start and stop the production line frequently, making adjustments to the line, and also to the actual build of the CT, to improve the build in small ways, rather than the more normal focus on increasing weekly production ASAP.

The most likely issue is production of the 4680 cells. I think Tesla is looking to get to gen 3 cells before building more than 10,000 Cybertrucks (very rough number). Again, I hope I'm wrong but, if not, the end result will be an even better Cybertruck at a lower cost.

 

[beewang]

To those speaking about the price issue.


Tesla pricing policies aren't stable. So no only the CT is 30k or more, it seems certain that eventually the price will be lowered dramatically.

I'm not that much of a fan.

Then you should stick with buying Real Estate and not buying cars...

But trying to drive a house is a bit tough...

 

[Alpine]

Hi, I'm in LA and some of the LA culture/mindset can be a little embarrassing. Specifically, there were A LOT of people in LA who reserved the Cybertruck that never had any intention of purchasing one. They just wanted to be able to say "I ordered a Cybertruck!" I honestly believe that the waiting list is going to get significantly shorter because: a) Many of the people the placed orders were not serious. b) The higher price and lower range will dissuade many people altogether, and c) The higher price and lower range makes the Cybertruck more equal to many of its competitors. So I suspect that a lot of people will get impatient and just get a different EV Pick-Up (that's available now.) I'm sticking with the Cybertruck and I'm fairly confident that mine will arrive in 2024.

a lot can change in life over 4 years even for those that were serious buyers at the beginning. i ordered in spring 21 and have no doubt i have a year wait max. lightening lines looked scary too at the start.

 

[Cyberman]

My wife paid her $100 reservation fee for a Cybertruck in February 2022 (almost 2 years ago). Based on what we have learned about how to decipher RN numbers, there are more than 3 million orders ahead of her. I keep reading that there are about 2 million reservations, but that does not agree with the RN numbers. She will probably be too old to drive it by the time her number comes up, or said another way, her number is likely to come up before her RN number comes up. I am a stock holder in Tesla and owned a 2021 model y and now a 2023 model Y. I have watched Elon/Tesla work miracles, but I doubt that even quantum theory can resolve this problem. It is unfortunate that manufacturing will most likely take many years to satisfy the current number of reservations. One might think this is a wonderful dilema for Tesla, but it really isn't.

You have to take into account that the reservation numbers include reservations for all Tesla models, not just Cybertrucks.

Sponsored