Shipping early 2023? Bring It!

CyberGus

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not letting this increasingly rare instance of the correct phraseology go unrewarded

*slow clap*
"Which is correct champing or chomping at the bit?

The original phrase is, indeed, champing at the bit, but chomping at the bit emerged in America in the 1930s according to the Oxford English Dictionary and chomp has overtaken champ in common use. A Google web search for chomping at the bit returns about twice as many results as a search for champing at the bit."

I speak 'Merican
 

TyPope

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So if I’m ~284,000th in line, when can I realistically expect to have Tesla have me sign the purchase contract? Late 2024?
I say they'll start production on May 08, 2023 because, why not?
They'll ramp up to 5,000 per week and hit that number on the week of 08 November 2023 (26 weeks) by which point they will have produced 65,000 units. This ramp up will not take as long as the Model Y primarily because they'll take some of the workers from the MY line to build out the CT line so they'll have experienced workers. Further, the line will be more complete and the disruptions due to factory reconfiguration will not be as bad...
Then, the remaining 185,000 will take right at 37 weeks... 22 July 2024.

Now, I MAY have made an assumption or two...
1. They'll start production on 08 May 2023
2. During the ramp up, the AVERAGE number of units would be 2,500 per week.
3. Tesla will not separate out trim levels and will truly go by first-come, first-served. While this is probably the most fair way to do it, I'm hoping they build the top model reservations first but that's just because it benefits me and my 495,000+ a few spot in line. Sad face... I actually believe that, just like for the MY, they'll go with the top available model first and separate out the orders geographically to expose the most people to that particular Tesla model... which also benefits me here in Nebraska (Benefited my wife, too when she got her MY in June just 2 months after ordering it)
4. Most of the equipment needed for the CT line(s) is already inside the building.
5. There will be no world event to prevent building them
6. Batteries, batteries, batteries.
7. I did all that math with you at number 250,000 so I may be off by 6 weeks and 5 and a half days... So, lets call it 10 September 2024.

There you have it. An ex-industrial engineer's perspective... or is that just a guess?
 
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johnbeans

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There would be sample exoskeletons littering the landscape…but you are right.
Or they arrive neatly stacked from vendor(s).

Likely? Not based on simple past analogy to stamped parts.

But I would gently suggest that it's worth thinking about how different a non-painted laser-cut bent component is from a stamped fender.

If I was a stainless vendor, along with Tesla's custom stainless formulation I'd also bid on laser cutting and bending the parts.

I'd do this because:

1. Being laser cut, it does not require (nor benefit from) an expensive commitment to dedicated tooling. Tesla can send a new design file and immediately change the spec. Remember, Tesla frequently vertically integrates to preserve speed and change control. There is no control or change speed benefit to them for doing it themselves here in this situation. Especially if I'm already in Texas. CO2 and fiber lasers are easy to set up, and I'd be perfectly happy to buy and maintain them, since they could serve any of my customers, not just Tesla.

2. As the vendor I'd always be seeking value-add to promote stickiness of the account, even I needed to price aggressively.

3. I would promote the service as being "the most efficient path from roll to part." Why ship scrap? Just ship the parts, and recycle the scrap on site.

4. I would provide space for Tesla engineers to be present for design iterations on the interaction between material (composition, cutting, temper, forming) and final result. In addition to dimension, I would certify appearance. "Every part arrives in showroom condition."

5. Being the material vendor would allow me to more economically recycle obsolete parts in inventory when changes are introduced midstream, while still allowing safety stock to be accumulated at relatively low risk.

Well, that's what I would do if I were selling to Tesla. Just interesting to think about.
 

LDRHAWKE

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Or they arrive neatly stacked from vendor(s).

Likely? Not based on simple past analogy to stamped parts.

But I would gently suggest that it's worth thinking about how different a non-painted laser-cut bent component is from a stamped fender.

If I was a stainless vendor, along with Tesla's custom stainless formulation I'd also bid on laser cutting and bending the parts.

I'd do this because:

1. Being laser cut, it does not require (nor benefit from) an expensive commitment to dedicated tooling. Tesla can send a new design file and immediately change the spec. Remember, Tesla frequently vertically integrates to preserve speed and change control. There is no control or change speed benefit to them for doing it themselves here in this situation. Especially if I'm already in Texas. CO2 and fiber lasers are easy to set up, and I'd be perfectly happy to buy and maintain them, since they could serve any of my customers, not just Tesla.

2. As the vendor I'd always be seeking value-add to promote stickiness of the account, even I needed to price aggressively.

3. I would promote the service as being "the most efficient path from roll to part." Why ship scrap? Just ship the parts, and recycle the scrap on site.

4. I would provide space for Tesla engineers to be present for design iterations on the interaction between material (composition, cutting, temper, forming) and final result. In addition to dimension, I would certify appearance. "Every part arrives in showroom condition."

5. Being the material vendor would allow me to more economically recycle obsolete parts in inventory when changes are introduced midstream, while still allowing safety stock to be accumulated at relatively low risk.

Well, that's what I would do if I were selling to Tesla. Just interesting to think about.
The fact is Tesla has all the same flexibility advantages doing it in house plus what they have learned in SpaceX with how to best fabricate with the stainless they have formulated.
 


JeffnReno

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The race is on for which I'll get first. Will it be my Cybertruck or my Aptera? A Model Y with a tow hitch could be in the cards instead of either if the wait takes too long.
 

Ogre

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Or they arrive neatly stacked from vendor(s).
A lot of really good points, but I have some quibbles.

  1. If they are folded and cut by a third party, you add a lot of extra logistics for shipping and handling. The shape of the truck will be unstable without the windows and structural battery pack so you will need to secure the very large cut/ shaped body pieces with sort of temporary frame.
  2. Just shipping and receiving 5,000 - 10,000 Cybertruck bodies per week would be a fairly massive operation. They will be nearly as big as the finished trucks and cannot roll on/ off the trucks on their own. Shipping rolls of stainless is much simpler.
  3. I’m pretty sure part of the Cybertruck secret sauce is in this process. I think there will be some process which will be evolutionary, similar to the way the gigapress is an evolution of the front and rear assemble of the trucks.

That last point is conjecture, but in general, I think Tesla is making the truck bodies in house. Just the shipping concerns are a pretty big deal.
 

intimidator

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The Cybertruck is not coming early 2023 to the masses.

They have not worked out all the bugs for producing 4680s at a high volume.
Every single Cybertruck needs batteries. They can't build Cybertrucks and stick batteries in later.

So where is Tesla with 4680 production? Can they ramp 4680s by the summer of 2023?
 

cvalue13

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"Which is correct champing or chomping at the bit?

The original phrase is, indeed, champing at the bit, but chomping at the bit emerged in America in the 1930s according to the Oxford English Dictionary and chomp has overtaken champ in common use. A Google web search for chomping at the bit returns about twice as many results as a search for champing at the bit."

I speak 'Merican
and “irregardless” has been added to the dictionary for similar reasons!

but don’t let your source’s reference to 1930 fool you into thinking you’re joining a long, historical tradition:

Tesla Cybertruck Shipping early 2023?  Bring It! BBD542AA-9942-4794-AFB9-95B3BFFF261C


more like Boomers had no clue what equines are, then infected further generations

Tesla Cybertruck Shipping early 2023?  Bring It! 86BA56A6-64EF-43EA-839D-75D7CF8A6D02
 


Ogre

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and “irregardless” has been added to the dictionary for similar reasons!

but don’t let your source’s reference to 1930 fool you into thinking you’re joining a long, historical tradition:

BBD542AA-9942-4794-AFB9-95B3BFFF261C.jpeg


more like Boomers had no clue what equines are, then infected further generations

86BA56A6-64EF-43EA-839D-75D7CF8A6D02.jpeg
I don’t commonly use either phrase, but you made me curious. WTF does “Champing” even mean??

Tesla Cybertruck Shipping early 2023?  Bring It! 1663628124765


Umm…. Yeah.
 

CyberGus

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I don’t commonly use either phrase, but you made me curious. WTF does “Champing” even mean??

1663628124765.png


Umm…. Yeah.
Having been bitten by a horse more times than I'd like to admit, I would definitely describe it as a "chomp"
 

CyberGus

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and “irregardless” has been added to the dictionary for similar reasons!

but don’t let your source’s reference to 1930 fool you into thinking you’re joining a long, historical tradition:

BBD542AA-9942-4794-AFB9-95B3BFFF261C.jpeg


more like Boomers had no clue what equines are, then infected further generations

86BA56A6-64EF-43EA-839D-75D7CF8A6D02.jpeg
Tesla Cybertruck Shipping early 2023?  Bring It! Nd9GcRv7pyc8RXXHs3otQ1FM-WF6agqWvUBYLw9kA&usqp=CAU
Sponsored

 
 




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