Soon, the Cybertruck will be the quickest way for some of us to get a Tesla

[firsttruck]

Those folks at Toyota are NOT dummies.

Maybe that was true for pre-2007 Toyota management.

I would need to see evidence that show current Toyota management are NOT dummies.

They are stalling with a purpose.

Yup. On purpose like deer in headlight freezes as car plow into it.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit, if they stall and stall. Then, like a magician pulling a rabbit out of their hat. Toyota says, Oh look we have solid state batteries!!!

There will be no surprise. The issue is not that solid-state does not exist.

The solid-state problems are
1. need lower price (cheaper than LFP)
2. large scale production (multiple tera watt hours per year)

The factory that can do both will not exist before 2030s so will NOT be in Toyota's 2023, 2024, 2025 or even 2030 hat.

 

[firsttruck]

It’s a tough question.

I think the simple answer is there is currently no path forward for a lot of these guys where they can transition to EVs and remain profitable. To compete with Tesla, they need to plough 10s of billions of dollars into a product line which is not profitable and might not be for 5 years or more. Continuing to release ICE vehicles is the only way they can generate profits right now.

Ditching ICE for these companies is suicide. They need that revenue to ramp up their next generation products.

It would not have been suicide if they taken making EVs seriously 15 years ago and followed a Elon like plan of starting at the top end ( expensive hi-performance cars & luxury cars).

Now it is too late for most of them.

 

[Sirfun]

How can the Toyota CEO take this long to figure out the wall is not a chalkboard with chalk written on it but the wall is made of stone and the writing has been chiseled in by Tesla over period of 15 years. Elon even warned the competitors over 15 years ago by publishing a draft on the the Internet.

GM, Ford, Toyota, VW could all have implemented their own version of the plan and slowly reduced their workforce (a lot by attrition) instead of doing next to nothing and now having the demand for the their workers labor implode in an instant and their economic lives destroyed.
The executives and fail-sons owners will do just fine because they always get golden parachutes.

Elon himself only gave Tesla a 10% chance of survival. All the legacy automakers were sitting back, thinking there's no way that Tesla will make it. Think about it, Tesla had to pay for everything. Legacy's car companies sell dealerships as a franchise. Every little town has their own dealerships, and the owners of those paid big bucks to get the franchise and build the place out of their own pocket. Along comes Elon, and he says we're doing our business model completely different. We/Tesla is building everything ourselves, and hiring staff everything ourselves. The legacy car companies were sitting back, thinking NO WAY! Tesla is going to fail and we'll just keep doing business as usual. Even Elon says they almost went bankrupt in 2017. Tesla didn't show a profit for a very long time. Because all the profit was going right back into the company's growth.
Just recently they started realizing, oh crap, Tesla isn't going away. And now they're realizing Tesla is going to kick our ass.

 

[Ogre]

It would not have been suicide if they serious 15 years ago and followed a Elon like plan of starting at the top end ( expensive hi-performance cars & luxury cars).

Now it is too late for most of them.

Seems like time machines are a frequent topic on this forum.

I don’t think people realize that what they see of Tesla is the tip of the iceberg. Tesla isn’t replacing Ford & GM, they are replacing huge parts of the auto industry. They’ve engineered these other companies out of the equation.

This is why the UAW ***HATES*** Tesla. Toyota doesn’t use UAW workers in their US factories, but they buy tons of parts from companies that do use union workers. Transmission components, air filters, brake components, seats, and a million other components. Tesla has engineered many of these jobs out of the picture. It’s not that they are no longer made by union workers, they just no longer exist.

Not only that, but the components they do need are either foreign, built by foreign owned (non-union) companies (Panasonic), or are built by robots with just a few Tesla employees overseeing them (Tesla batteries).

The auto industry is like a giant iceberg with Ford/ GM being the tip of that industry. Tesla has replaced that whole massive chunk of ice (ICE get it?) with a few ice cubes and a ton of engineering.

Ford, Toyota, etc have to build that whole replacement infrastructure starting today with revenue and earnings on their ICE empires dropping annually.

 

[Diehard]

I always saw Y as the biggest enemy of CT. Now with $10K higher price tag, margin on two Ys will be much larger than one CT (probably needs half the batteries). Y will chock CT to death before it is born by eating all it’s batteries. I don’t buy it for a second that CT is Elon’s favorite child. Y is bringing home all the bacon and will get all the hugs while CT will never be good enough for 4680s.

 

[Ogre]

I always saw Y as the biggest enemy of CT. Now with $10K higher price tag, margin on two Ys will be much larger than one CT (probably needs half the batteries). Y will chock CT to death before it is born by eating all it’s batteries. I don’t buy it for a second that CT is Elon’s favorite child. Y is bringing home all the bacon and will get all the hugs while CT will never be good enough for 4680s.

Nah, Tesla is planning on making 100 Giga watt hours of batteries out of Texas per year. That’s enough for 1.5 million Model Ys. Or 750k Model Ys and ~350k - 500k Cybertrucks. They are also making 10 giga watts in Fremont, and ??? there is spare square footage in Nevada for additional battery lines there which will almost certainly be dedicated to 4680 cells.

Tesla is also planning on buying 4680 cells from other companies. “As many as they can produce”.

Unless there are some big delays or slowdowns getting cell production in Texas online we should be golden.

 

[Diehard]

Nah, Tesla is planning on making 100 Giga watt hours of batteries out of Texas per year. That’s enough for 1.5 million Model Ys. Or 750k Model Ys and ~350k - 500k Cybertrucks.

Tesla is also planning on buying 4680 cells from other companies. “As many as they can produce”.

We’re golden.

Yup but it looks like demand is growing too and despite other EVs in the market, lots of people still want their Tesla. And Tesla lovers keep making babies.

As you can see, I am like CT, you are like Y. It takes twice your optimism to counteract my pessimisem but we are getting there.

 

[Ogre]

Yup but it looks like demand is growing too and despite other EVs in the market, lots of people still want their Tesla. And Tesla lovers keep making babies.

As you can see, I am like CT, you are like Y. It takes twice your optimism to counteract my pessimisem but we are getting there.

Even if they wanted to use all the batteries for Model Ys, the Model Y gun they are building only fires about 120 rounds per day. There is plenty of ammo for the Cybertruck gun too.

 

[firsttruck]

I always saw Y as the biggest enemy of CT. Now with $10K higher price tag, margin on two Ys will be much larger than one CT (probably needs half the batteries). Y will chock CT to death before it is born by eating all it’s batteries. I don’t buy it for a second that CT is Elon’s favorite child. Y is bringing home all the bacon and will get all the hugs while CT will never be good enough for 4680s.

I am sure Cybertruck is Elon's baby.
You will see Cybertrucks or a derivative rolling around on Mars, NOT a Model Y.

Regarding batteries I would not be surprised they save money by making dual motor Cyberytuck with 350 mile LFP 4680 structural battery pack.

 

[Crissa]

Even if they wanted to use all the batteries for Model Ys, the Model Y gun they are building only fires about 120 rounds per day. There is plenty of ammo for the Cybertruck gun too.

Where's the sweatdrop emoji?

?

-Criss

 

[firsttruck]

I don’t buy it for a second that CT is Elon’s favorite child. Y is bringing home all the bacon and will get all the hugs while CT will never be good enough for 4680s.

Elon talks like Cybertruck is special to him.

--------------

Tesla delays Cybertruck to late 2022; Elon Musk says it will be a ‘glitch in the Matrix’
By Fred Lambert
Sep. 2nd 2021
https://electrek.co/2021/09/02/tesla-delays-cybertruck-late-2022/

....
But Musk couldn’t leave it on a bad note of a delay and he still took the opportunity to hype up the upcoming Cybertruck:

“It will be a special project. Like a glitch in the Matrix. Like if Neo had a car.”

--------------

 

[Crissa]

Everyone is adding 'late' when Elon didn't.

-Crissa

 

[Diehard]

Everyone is adding 'late' when Elon didn't.

-Crissa

Tesla is Elon. Even though it is not officially late for another month, it is implied:

 

[Crissa]

Yeah, he didn't say late 2022, just in 2022, and volume the following year. First production only when they could make them with the factory at a decent swing (no Rivian or Roadster dribbles).

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Yeah, he didn't say late 2022, just in 2022, and volume the following year. First production only when they could make them with the factory at a decent swing (no Rivian or Roadster dribbles).

-Crissa

Musk hasn’t said anything on the record. But he did tell Tesla employees in a memo end of 2022. Everything seems to point to a September - December date. Unless we see a parade of beta trucks coming sometime soon.